Week 17

Season ATS: 58-39

Week 17 is one of the most unpredictable week’s to bet every year as we never really know how teams will choose to end their seasons. More often then not the results are flipped, we see good teams with playoff spots locked up rest key guys, while teams that struggled all year try to end on a high note. So when betting you gotta topsy turvey that muthfaucka.

Game 1: Phi at NYG -1

Bet% Phi 41% NYG59

The Eagles have lost 3 games in a row and last week’s loss to Washington eliminated them from the playoffs. This week has easily been the most difficult of the Chip Kelly era as he and Billy Davis were absolutely killed by the Philly media for their use of CB Bradley Fletcher in 1 on 1 situations with a single high safety.  The thing is this isn’t new, the Eagles have given up a league high 10 plays of 50 yards or more and it started in the opener when Allen Hurns beat them for a big TD. Over the last 3 games opposing QB’s are putting up a avg passer rating of 105 and 7.8 yards per pass att. With nothing to play for, hard to see how they come out of this funk this week.

For the Giants, they have one 3 in a row and probably should have one the 2 games that preceded thos 3, the Giants have the hottest QB-WR combo in the league with Eli and Odell Beckam Jr and it certainly looks like they are trying to end the season on a high behind their new superstar.

Fletcher is out for Phi but in terms of how the play, I don’t see how they change for the last game. Eagles will continue to play with single high safety and whether it’s Nolan Carrol or Brandon Boykins, nobody on this team can handle ODB.

Game 2 NYJ +7 @ Mia

Bet% NYJ 43% Mia 57%

Miami is the better team in this game by a large margin, Miami is #11 in DVOA while the Jets are #27 so the line seems about right. I will be on the Jets for one reason, Rex Ryan. This is in all likelihood the last game of the Rex Ryan era and the one thing that is undeniable about Ryan is that he is beloved by his players, in what will be his last game I think they do everything they can to get him a win.

The one place the Jets should have success is in the run game, Jets are 2nd in the league in rushin at 4.6 yards per attempt and run defense is the big hole in the Miami defense they are 25th giving up 4.4 per game and have been worse recently giving up 4.7 yards per att the last 3 weeks.

Game 3. Ind @ Ten +7.5

bet% Ind 74% Ten 26%

The Colts have nothing to play for in this game and I wouldn’t be surprised if they sit their key players including Luck in the 2nd half of this game which would make covering the TD plus very difficult. really that is the only reason to bet Ten here.

Game 4 Buf +5.5 @  NE

Bet% Buf 36% NE 64%

The Patriots have the #1 seed clinched and literally zero to play for in this game. Gronk, Brandon Browner, Julian Eddleman are all inactive which I think gives us a glimp on how this game will be treated by Bellichek.  I can’t see anyways Brady plays the whole game and think there is a chance he plays a half at most.

For the Bills they were playing great football on defense to end the season and had a chance to sneak into playoffs until their loss last week in Oak. They were always going to need help to get into the playoffs so I don;t see them being crushed by the loss and think they will come to and play well and try to get to 9 wins.

Game 5: Stl +13 @ Sea

Bet% Stl 38% Sea 62%

THis line has dropped from 13 to 11 on Sunday and I think that makes sense. Seattle has the #1 seed and are coming off of a month where they played arch rival 49ers twice, a game in in Philly when the Eagles had a shot at #1 seed and last week’s SNF game for 1st place vs Arizona. Even if Seattle plays all their starters, I think it’s reasonable to thik they may take a moment to exhale here and not come out full pedal to the metal.

As for the Rams they continue to play great defense late in the season, the Defense ranks 12th in Defensive DVOA and 12th overall in weighted DVOA. What makes a number like this extra difficult to cover against the Rams is how well they play in the redzone, Rans give up the 2nd fewest trips to the redzone at 2.5 per game and have the 4th best opp RZTD% at 44.7%.

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s