Week 16 4-2
Season ATS: 58-39
After 2 straight losing weeks, sweet sweet relief.
Week 15 2-3
Game 1: SD +1.5
Bet% SD 60 SF 40
Score: SD 38 SF 35 OT
In week’s 14 and 15 there were a couple of games where I thought I was on the right side but didn’t get some bounces or a couple of big plays went the wrong way and wins turned to losses. I’s funny because over the long haul games like that see to even out and this game was payback for some tough losses the the last few weeks.
SD trailed this game 28-7 at half, threw 3 interceptions to SF’s zero but managed to recover all 4 fumbles including one by their punt returner Eric Weddle in OT and comeback on the strength of Phillip Rivers arm and 4 passing TDs. Not very often you come back from down 21 to a team as good as SFs defense but the football gods smiled on us here.
Game 2: Min +4.5 @ Mia
Bet% Min 60% Mia 40%
Score: Min 35 Mia 37
I thought Miami would have a hard time getting up to play against Min in this game after losing 2 straight tough games vs Bal and NE and having their playoff hopes end for the most part.
Vikings led this game 17-7 at half and the Dolphins trouble stopping the run continued but the Miami offense came back and dominated especially in the 4th Q. Miami went 5-5 in the redzone where they have struggled all year and averaged 6.4 yards per play on 77 plays. Miami ran 20 more plays than Min but the Vikings managed to stay around in this game partly because they don’t turn the ball over very much and because they were very good in the redzone on offense.
Game 3: Atl +6 @ NO
Bet% Atl 52% NO 48%
Score: Atl 30 NO 14
I came into this game thinking that these teams were essentially the same teams and that this game would be a toss up because NO didn’t deserve to get much credit for their home field in the game.
Atl scored a TD at the end of game on a fumble return so before that it was basically a 1 possession lead but the big difference in this game was turnovers. Saints had 4 total, 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles lost while the Falcons had none.
Beyond the turnovers, the Saints continued to struggle vs the pass giving up 8.0 yards per pass and under perform in their own passing game averaging just 5.1 yards per pass and 2 interceptions. The Saints have now lost 4 of their last 5 home games.
Game 4: Bal -6 @ Hou
Bet% Bal 71% Hou 29%
Score: Bal 13 Hou 25
The Ravens playing a game they needed to keep control of their playoff fate played one of their worst offensive games of the season due in no small part to the Texans dominant pass rush. While Houston only had 2 sacks they did get 10 QB hits and a number of hurries which led to Joe Flacco to an abysmal QBR of 3.2. Flacco. Flacco threw for 178 yards on 50 pass atts and 3 interceptions, in fact he completed only 3 of his first 18 passes.
Basically when you have a QB play that poorly you have no chance in the game almost regardless of how the opposition plays on offense. Case Keenum went 20-42 for 182 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT for a QBR of 40.2, which is terrible but still miles better than Flacco. In fact the only passing TD in this game came from Arian Foster.
Game 5: Ind +3.5 @ Dal
Bet% Ind 54% Dal 46%
Score: Ind 7 Dal 42
Not. Even. Close.
This was a game where Dallas jumped out early and basically everything that could go wrong for Indy did, including a fake punt that was executed perfectly and would of been a big first down but was dropped by the reciever.
Not a lot to take from this game except this, Indy ran the ball 10 times for 1 yard. This is as one dimensional offense as there is in the entire league and you have to wonder how Colts will be able to do much in the post season with zero running game.
Game 6: Buf @ Oak+7
Bet% Buf 62% Oak 38%
Score: Buf 24 Oak 26
We were hoping for a let down game here for the Bills and that’s exactly what we got. Bills were still in need of help to get to playoffs but had to win out. After dominating GB at home last week, the Bills didn’t have the same dominance vs the Raiders.
Oakland who has been a very good home team to end the season managed to outgain Buffalo 347-321, they controlled the game on the ground with 36 rush attempts for 140 yards and won the turnover battle 2-0.