Month: November 2018

Week 12 Picks

Its Thanksgiving which means the betting card starts early this week. As is the case annually, with this being one of the biggest public betting days of the year, there is some value available on the dogs today to feast on.

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Week 11: 3-2

2018: 33-18

Game 1: Was +7.5 @ Dal

Bet% 51% 49%

This is really a play on the number. This game opened Dal +8.5 due mainly to Alex Smith being out and replaced by Colt McCoy and got bet down. Originally I thought I had missed the hook as this game went down to 7 but as of Thursday morning 7.5’s started showing up again.

I like Alex Smith but he has not been good this year, he is 24th in QBR and 25th in Passer rating ahead of such luminaries as Eli Manning, Derek Carr, Case Keenum and the rookies, Mayfield, Allen, Rosen and Darnold. So how much of a drop will it be? I like McCoy in this spot, at home in Texas on national TV, if there is a game he wants to play well in, it is this one.

If there is something that worries you it is that Washington is 28th in DVOA vs the run so Dallas should be able to feed Zeke. Still, I think Washington stays in this game and has a shot to win late.

Game 2: NYG @ Phi Over 46

Bet% Over 69% Under 31%

I bet this game Friday morning when this line started to move and was able to get the 46. As of Sunday it is between 47-49 depending on the shop, I would still play at 47 but probably not at 49.

The Eagles are decimated with injuries on defense, they will be without starting corners Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones and their safety Maddux who had been one of the few bright spots on that back end the last month. Eagles will have 4 players playing significant snaps that 90% of Eagles fans could not name.

The Giants have been playing better football the last 3 weeks and this should be a big game for Barkley and OBJ.

Eagles have been awful on offense but I expect a bit of a bounce back after last week’s embarrassing game vs the Saints and the Giants are the one team the Eagles had a good offensive day against earlier in the season.

Game 3: Jax -3 @ Buf

Bet% Jax 61% Buf 39%

if we were to base this line just on the rosters this should be Jags -6 but considering how the Jags have played this season and the fact that they are on a 6 game losing streak it’s surprising this is even 3. If the Jags show up and play withe the type of effort they did last week vs Pittsburgh then they win this game by double digits if not then they could go 7 in a row.

I like that Josh Allen is playing because I think the Jags will be able to concentrate on the Bills run game and not worry about the pass. As disheartening as the loss last week was I do think the Jags defense will still show up in a game where they can basically play bully ball and get some sacks and turnovers. I think Jags win big here.

Game 4: Sea @ Car -3

Bet% Sea 46% Car 54%

The Panthers have lost 2 straight but I think because of that we are getting value here. Panthers are 5-0 at home and 1-4 on the road, the last 2 games they dropped were both on the road and they should have had a chance at the the win last week in Detroit if not for a an unnecessary 2 point conversion attempt.

Where I really like this spot is the Panthers are at their best when they can run, they are 4th in Run DVOA and that run game is the base of everything especially the play action Norv Turner wants. Seattle is 10th in defensive DVOA but only 19th vs the run, this is definitely an advantage for the Panthers.

Seattle also likes to rely on the run on offense and are among the league leaders in attempts and percentage of plays, they are 6th in DVOA. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great this season but they are much better vs the run 12th then they are vs the pass 25th. Panthers are a much better team at home and for Seattle this is one of the longest trips of the year, like Panthers in this spot.

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Week 11 Picks – TNF

A rare TNF game, for me, I hate everything about TNF, the games are generally terrible and the short turnaround leads to even more randomness. That being said, in my mind the one thing I have decided is if I do bet it’s home team or nothing and I like the home team here.

celebrate 2018 nfl GIF by NFL

Week 10: 3-2

2018: 30-16

Game 1: GB @ Sea -3

Bet% GB 46% Sea 54%

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Week 10 Picks

Last week was one of the worst for the books and usually I end up on the same side more often then not but last week I was on some very public sides especially on the LAR-NO total and came out with a perfect 4-0 week.

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Week 9: 4-0

2018: 27-14

Game 1: 6 Pt teaser : Jax +9 @ Ind & Dal @ Phi -1

On the Jags, this really is it if they have any chance to make the playoffs. Jags are coming off of a bye and playing a divisional opponent who also only has 3 wins. The Colts schedule compared to the Jags has been much easier, they are coming off of wins vs the Raiders and Bills but lost to the Jets before that. The Colts are 22 in DVOA on defense but they are better vs the run at 13. Jags will get Leonard Fournett back so I expect them to play similar to last year where they grind the clock and give Bortles some easy shots to make plays. Even if Jags offense come out flat the defense is still 6th and I think they keep it to 1 score. (more…)

Week 9 Picks

After a red hot start, we have stalled the last 2 weeks and maybe as a result of that this week’s card looks pretty tight as well. It actually looked like we had a winning week late with the 49ers up in Arizona but after doing nothing all game we saw Rosen not only come down and score a TD but also complete the 2pt conversion and hand us our first losing week in a month.

dumbfounded kansas city chiefs GIF by NFL

Week 8: 2-3

2018: 23-14

Game 1: 6 Pt Teaser – KC -2.5 @ Cle & Pit +7 @ Bal

I know a lot of sharps are on Cle because of the coaching change and the idea that teams get a short term boost from coaching changes but I feel very confident in a matchup of Andy Reid vs Greg Williams. Yes Williams won a Superbowl but e also ad a stretch of 5 years where his teams were in the bottom 5 of Defensive DVOA. (more…)