TNF

Week 11 Picks – TNF

A rare TNF game, for me, I hate everything about TNF, the games are generally terrible and the short turnaround leads to even more randomness. That being said, in my mind the one thing I have decided is if I do bet it’s home team or nothing and I like the home team here.

celebrate 2018 nfl GIF by NFL

Week 10: 3-2

2018: 30-16

Game 1: GB @ Sea -3

Bet% GB 46% Sea 54%

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Week 8 Review – When it all Falls down

The Plinko Gods Giveth and the Plinko Gods taketh away. Last week in a really big week, there were 3 close games that could have gone either way and all went mine, this week there were 4 Sunday games that all looked good in the 4th Quarter and all 4 ended up going the wrong way. The 2 prime time games helped salvage the week and save me from disaster but not enough to save me from a terrible Sunday morning that felt like a kick in the mouth.

Woods superkicked

Week 8: 3-4-1

2015 ATS: 29-19-2 

Week 8 Results

Week 8

 What Went Right:

  • London Mornings: The Lions went into the game as one of the worst defenses vs the pass and rush, 32nd in opp passer rating and 32nd in opp yards per rush att. The Chiefs didn’t have a huge day in the air but on the ground the Chiefs gained 204 yards on just 32 carries. The key to the game was the Chiefs getting an amazing 6 TDs in 7 RZ trips way above their season averages of 3.4 RZ trips and 41.7% TD conversions.
  • The Saints Defense: the bet on the Giants was that the Saints defense would get dominated by Eli and the Giants passing game. Eli had 350 yards passing 6TDs, 0 Ints and a passer rating of 138.2
  • The Broncos Defense: Took under 46.5 in GB – Den feeling that the GB offense had not been quite as good vs better defenses this year and the Broncos D was not only the best they had faces this year but was in fact the best in the league. This was maybe the best performance of the week, holding Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards passing.

What Went Wrong:

  • 4th Quarters : NFL Plinko has never been so cruel. In 3 of the 4 Sunday morning games (Pit-Cin, NYG-NO, Chi-Min) all 3 of my picks led the game midway or late in the 4th Q, the 4th game Cle-Ari had Cleveland leading at halftime and down 4 with the ball deep in Cardinals territory late in position to not oly cover but maybe take the lead outride. While watching the games I thought worst case I would go 2-2, 0-3-1 was crushing.
  • Injuries: A part of this review is too see not just what went wrong but also what would you change? What went wrong that you can avoid? The one thing you can never account for is in game injuries and this week it was amazing how many teams I had bet on suffered key injuries during the game. The Bears lost Matt Forte while leading, The Steelers lost Levean Bell while leading, McCown finished the games with badly bruised ribs that certainly affected his play. Just a really unlucky week
  • The Giants Defense: When capping the Giants Saints game I mentioned how there was concern with the Giants Defense because they have basically lived off of turnovers sine the Amukamara injury. Against the Saints they had 1 Interception and the saints scored on literally very other drive, Brees finished with 505 yards and 7TDs.

What Did We Learn:

The game I am most upset about betting was the TNF Dolphins- Patriots game. While Miami had come in with 2 huge wins they were over the Titans and Texans, 2 teams that have been a mess all year and now we had a matchup between Dan Campbell and Bill Bellicheck on a short week with NE at home. This should have been a no play, we had no real indication of how Miami would look against a great team and the coaching mismatch was so large that really this one was just a hope and prayer. Taking a rookie coach, especially one who has never been a head coach before vs an all-time great on a short week is just a bad bet. I think in situations where you have either extra time to prepare or an extra short period of time to prepare these types of coaching mismatches matter more.

Week 8 – Thursday Night Football

2015 ATS: 26-15-1

LW 5-2

Game 1 Mia +8.5 @ NE

Bet% Mia 32% NE 68%

I have been on Miami for the first 2 weeks of the Dan Campbell era and will continue to ride them here on TNF. Coming off of 2 straight blow outs, how good is Miami? Honestly I am not sure and I don’t know how anyone can really know for sure. The last 2 weeks they have played the Titans and the Texans, the 22nd and 31st ranked teams by DVOA, obviously not great competition but they didn’t just win those games, they completely destroyed those teams winning by 28 and 18 and that 18 against Hou is extremely flattering to the Texans as they led Houston at half 41-0.

Through the first 4 weeks under Joe Philbin, Miami ranked 29th in overall DVOA, now after their 2 very impressive wins since the change they have moved up all the way to 15th overall. The 2 biggest improvements have been in the run game and the defenses ability to get pressure.

As I wrote last week there are not a lot of situations where you make money betting against the Patriots but this is the one where it has been profitable, games where NE is favored by more than a TD. Since 2009, now including last week vs the Jets New England is 10-17 ATS as a 7.5 pt or more favorite.

We know Patriots will get the majority of bets every week and the lines will continually get shaded to their side, a sort of Patriots tax, again this week we see basically 70% of tickets on New England this week. The Patriots are the best team in the league and certainly capable of covering this number as we saw last week when they led the Jets late by 10. On the other hand, last week we also saw the value of getting this many points as the Jets were within the number for basically the whole game and able to get a late FG for the cover even though they couldn’t win the game.

At this point I am basically going to play these spots blindly especially within the division, all these teams have played Brady and company for years and if anyone is going to knock them off it is probably going to be within the divsion.  New England has failed to cover a TD the last 2 weeks and I think it can continue tonight.