2015 ATS: 26-15-1
Game 1 Mia +8.5 @ NE
Bet% Mia 32% NE 68%
I have been on Miami for the first 2 weeks of the Dan Campbell era and will continue to ride them here on TNF. Coming off of 2 straight blow outs, how good is Miami? Honestly I am not sure and I don’t know how anyone can really know for sure. The last 2 weeks they have played the Titans and the Texans, the 22nd and 31st ranked teams by DVOA, obviously not great competition but they didn’t just win those games, they completely destroyed those teams winning by 28 and 18 and that 18 against Hou is extremely flattering to the Texans as they led Houston at half 41-0.
Through the first 4 weeks under Joe Philbin, Miami ranked 29th in overall DVOA, now after their 2 very impressive wins since the change they have moved up all the way to 15th overall. The 2 biggest improvements have been in the run game and the defenses ability to get pressure.
As I wrote last week there are not a lot of situations where you make money betting against the Patriots but this is the one where it has been profitable, games where NE is favored by more than a TD. Since 2009, now including last week vs the Jets New England is 10-17 ATS as a 7.5 pt or more favorite.
We know Patriots will get the majority of bets every week and the lines will continually get shaded to their side, a sort of Patriots tax, again this week we see basically 70% of tickets on New England this week. The Patriots are the best team in the league and certainly capable of covering this number as we saw last week when they led the Jets late by 10. On the other hand, last week we also saw the value of getting this many points as the Jets were within the number for basically the whole game and able to get a late FG for the cover even though they couldn’t win the game.
At this point I am basically going to play these spots blindly especially within the division, all these teams have played Brady and company for years and if anyone is going to knock them off it is probably going to be within the divsion. New England has failed to cover a TD the last 2 weeks and I think it can continue tonight.