Month: January 2022

2021 Championship Round

Last week was really wrong on the #1 seeds but salvaged the slat on Sunday to go 2-2.

2022 Playoffs 3-2:

2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1

Championship Round

Game 1: Cin @ KC Over 53:

Game 2: Cin @ KC-7

I like KC on the side and also think the over is the best bet on the board. The Chiefs offense is playing at it’s highest level all year, Mahomes feels unstoppable and the Bengals defense is not one that is going to be able to hang. I can see Chiefs getting out to a lead and Bengals being heavy pass and such they should be able to score as well. I also think the fact that Chiefs will get pressure could lead to short fields and quick scores and the Bengals big plays could have success vs that same aggressive Chiefs defense.

Game 3: SF +3.5 @ LAR – This bet is just on the number, I think the Rams probably win but this 2 most likely games states here are in my opinion, 1) Rams win by 3 or less and 2) 49ers win by 3 or less making the hook super valuable here. Shanahan has had great success vs the McVay and the Rams and I think it is really based on matchups, the 49ers are going to have success on the ground and keep this game close.

Divisional Round Picks 2022

Got off to nice start to playoffs especially with the 49ers ML Hit last week, on 3 of the games this week

2022 Playoffs: 2-1

2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1

Game 1: Cin @ TEN -3.5 : this feels like a game where the Bye week pays huge dividends. Titans get Henry back for this game, and Brown and Jones got an extra week to get healthy. Meanwhile Bengals are coming off biggest win for franchise in 30 years and City and team have celebrated as basically the Superbowl. Feels like Bengals are good for this year.

Game 2: SF @ GB -5.5: The 49ers if healthy and in a more ideal situation would have some great matchup advantages in this game but Jimmy G playing with a separated shoulder in freezing Lambeau Field added to the fact that this will be their 3rd straight week on the road, 4th week out of 5 while Green Bay comes off the bye and I think this game is more likely to be Packers by 2TDs than it is 49ers winning straight up.

Game 3: Buf @ KC -2 : Everyone is on the Bills in this game and after last week’s basically perfect performance it is hard not to see why that would be. I am going to stick with the Chiefs at home here, I like the turnaround by the offense the last month and the big reason is how much the defense improved 2nd half. The Chiefs finished the year 24th in defensive DVOA but in Weighted DVOA they finished 13th. We have also seen the Bills put up some less than stellar games throughout the season, the final regular season game they let the Jets stick around for 3 quarters before finally putting them away late, they were down to the Falcons at half the week before that before again scoring late and of course we can’t forget losing to the Jags and giving them their first win. I think hoe field is big here and Chiefs pull out a close one

Game 4: LAR +3 @ TB

Didn’t realize I had not posted this one but here is screen print

Wildcard Weekend 2021

Finished the Regular season 50-49-1 which is not great and really need a strong playoffs to make the year count.

2021 Regular Season : 50-49-1

Game 1: LV @ Cin Under 49: Both teams had some high scoring games late in the year that I think pushed this total up, I expect both teams to play this game more conservatively and try to use the run game a lot and it wouldn;t surprise me if we get a really slow first halg=f that helps keep this game under.

Game 2: NE +4.5 @ Buf: The Bills are clearly the better team but I do think that even though they are the home team, being outside in a really old game isn’t their ideal play state. I expect the Bills to pull this game out but I do think its a struggle and getting 4.5 here is good value.

Game 3: SF ML +142 @ Dal: It feels like everyone is on the 49ers and that does scare me but of all the games tis one feels like the most 50/50 to me, I think both offenses game have significant advantages in this game, SF in the run game and Dallas in the deep passing game and whoever is best able to exploit their advantage will win. That is why I am taking SF ML rather than the 3 points. I can see a scenario where Dallas attacks the 49ers secondary and wins by 10+. I can also see SF controlling the game on the ground and winning by a TD.

Week 17 Picks 2021

Busy week and wasn’t planning on any bets but have made a couple below

Week 16: 2-4

2021: 49-47-1

Game 1: KC -3.5 @ Cin: Just think this is too big a spot for Bengals off of their huge week in Baltimore

Game 2: Mia @ Ten -3: Fading a fraud Miami team

Game 3: Det +9 @ Sea : Way too many points for Seattle to cover vs a team that always plays hard.