The biggest game of the year has the best two teams in the league by DVOA in a pick em, this game opened with Sea as a fav but was quickly moved to a pick as most of the early bets came in on NE. I think the open line Sea -2.5 was the right line so we are getting some value here but overall I just think Seattle has been the better team most of the year and their defense will be too much in this game
NE offense vs Seattle Def
This is clearly the premier match up in the game the #3 DVOA offense vs the #1 DVOA defense. What jumps out at me for the NE offense is in most of the metrics they aren’t really elite, 12th in yards/play, 16th in yards/pass and 24th in yards per rush. What NE does at an elite level is score, they are #1 in yards per point partly due to the fact they are so good in the redzone at 62% which is 5th best in the league, they also lead the league in Redzone trips with 4.3 per game. Will they score this efficiently vs the #1 defense? I don’t think so.
NFL Championship Weekend: I didn’t have a chance to blog this game because honestly I didn’t really like anything all week but ended up playing this teaser on game day. Here’s a quick post recap of the one bet I made.
Game1: teaser GB+15.5 & GB-Sea Under 51
Bet% GB 58 Sea 42
Score GB 22 Sea 28 OT
I liked the under but after opening at 47.5 on game day it had dropped to 46, I also thought that the value on GB was too much in a teaser getting over 2 TDs but honestly I didn’t spend a lot of time researching or using my regular game breakdowns this weekend due to not initially liking these games at the open.
In terms of my bet this game was never in doubt, GB led this game from start to finish, Seattle couldn’t generate anything on offense for 3 quarters and even though GB had great field position due to 5 Seattle turnovers, Seattle forced them to settle for field goals, GB went 1-3 in the redzone.
Not Even Close! I liked Bal+7 all week and should have stuck with that but thought the under was safer, this game was completely out of had early and it kept going that way. The biggest reason this game went over neither defense could hold the opponent to a FG, Ravens went 4-5 in the redzone while NE went 3 for 3. I really fet the Ravens would be able to 1 limit the Pats run game which hey did, holding them to 14 yards on 13 carries. I also thought the Ravens would get a lot of pressue on the Pats and be able to protect their porous secondary, which they didn’t. While the Ravens did get 9 QB hits they only got 2 sacks and only 2 TFL.