2014 Playoffs: 4-3
2014 Reg Season: 60-42
Super Bowl XLIX
Bet 1: Sea (pk) vs NE (2 units)
Bet 2: Sea-NE under 24 (1st half)
Bet% Sea 35% NE 65%
Bet% Under 46% Over 54%
I’m Team Sherman & Lynch here
The biggest game of the year has the best two teams in the league by DVOA in a pick em, this game opened with Sea as a fav but was quickly moved to a pick as most of the early bets came in on NE. I think the open line Sea -2.5 was the right line so we are getting some value here but overall I just think Seattle has been the better team most of the year and their defense will be too much in this game
NE offense vs Seattle Def
This is clearly the premier match up in the game the #3 DVOA offense vs the #1 DVOA defense. What jumps out at me for the NE offense is in most of the metrics they aren’t really elite, 12th in yards/play, 16th in yards/pass and 24th in yards per rush. What NE does at an elite level is score, they are #1 in yards per point partly due to the fact they are so good in the redzone at 62% which is 5th best in the league, they also lead the league in Redzone trips with 4.3 per game. Will they score this efficiently vs the #1 defense? I don’t think so.