2014 Playoffs: 4-3
2014 Reg Season: 60-42
Super Bowl XLIX
Bet 1: Sea (pk) vs NE (2 units)
Bet 2: Sea-NE under 24 (1st half)
Bet% Sea 35% NE 65%
Bet% Under 46% Over 54%
I’m Team Sherman & Lynch here
The biggest game of the year has the best two teams in the league by DVOA in a pick em, this game opened with Sea as a fav but was quickly moved to a pick as most of the early bets came in on NE. I think the open line Sea -2.5 was the right line so we are getting some value here but overall I just think Seattle has been the better team most of the year and their defense will be too much in this game
NE offense vs Seattle Def
This is clearly the premier match up in the game the #3 DVOA offense vs the #1 DVOA defense. What jumps out at me for the NE offense is in most of the metrics they aren’t really elite, 12th in yards/play, 16th in yards/pass and 24th in yards per rush. What NE does at an elite level is score, they are #1 in yards per point partly due to the fact they are so good in the redzone at 62% which is 5th best in the league, they also lead the league in Redzone trips with 4.3 per game. Will they score this efficiently vs the #1 defense? I don’t think so.
As for Seattle they are elite by virtually every measure, the biggest mismatch is in the run game and as a result I expect NE to basically abandon the run as they did vs the Ravens. In the divisional round NE only gained 14 yards on 13 carries and threw the ball 51 times. As a result of the lack of running game, I do not think NE will be as good in the redzone vs Sea, Sea is maybe the one team that has multiple defenders that can match up with Gronk, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Kam Chancellor and even Bruce Irvin can be used and athletically make it tough for him.
Seattle’s overall numbers vs. TE’s haven’t been great this year but below is a chart from Bill Barnwell’s great superbowl break down, that shows the difference this year in the 1st 10 weeks when they didn’t have Chansellor and Wagner at 100% or out all together vs them back at 100%
Seattle pressures the QB and receivers so well that the more you have to throw the more likely it is you make a mistake, I just can’t see the Pats throwing 50 plus times against this defense and being efficient.
Sea offense vs NE defense
What’s interesting about this side of the ball is Seattle never really gets credit for being an elite offense but they are the #4 DVOA offense, and number one rushing offense averaging 5.2 years per att over the season. NE was 11th against the rush but they haven’t played many read option teams so how they matchup vs Wilson and that part of the run game will be very interesting. More interesting I think will be how NE handles Wilson outside of the pocket, they are not a team that generates a lot of consistent pressure, I would imagine they may use a spy for the read option so that takes away another rusher, can they contain Wilson in that scenario? I think Seattle will be able to run effectively in this game and control the ball on offense but I do think NE will be able to take away big plays meaning the game will be lower scoring.
Overall I think the Seattle defense is the best unit in this game and that the Seattle run offense has an advantage over the NE defense leading to a Seattle win with a total in the low 40’s.