Coming off of a truly terrible week last week and looking to the heavens for a few winners.
Week 7: 0-4
Game 1: Ten @ Ind -1 : This feels like the high point for the Titans coming off of 2 massive wins vs the Bills and Chiefs. The Colts match up really well vs the Titans, Colts have the #1 DVOA run defense so they are probably as well equipped to slow Henry down as anyone and the offense has been playing it’s best football the last 4 weeks and Wentz is now 4th EPA per play and for the first time this year will have their entire offensive line healthy and playing.
Game 2: Pit @ Cle -3.5 : The Browns are expected to get the bulk of the injured players back in this game including Nick Chubb and most likely Baker Mayfield, they will also get their tackles back in this game. If the Browns are mostly healthy and playing at home I think his is a big mismatch, the Browns defense should be able to get a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger and they are the #3 team vs the run. The Steelers offense has been heavily reliant on the running game and I don’t think they are set up to have success without Najee Davis as their focal point. I think we are getting value here because we have basically seen the Browns at 60% the last few weeks.
Game 3: NE @ LAC -4.5 : By DVOA the Patriots are ranked higher than the Chargers 12th vs 17th but I am way lower on New England than the market and the raw numbers. NE has 3 wins this season against the Jets, the Jets and Houston and 2 of those games were absolute blowouts which helps the numbers and DVOA doesn’t properly weigh strength of schedule this early in season. The Jets did have close losses to the Patriots in that very strange Brady comeback game in a storm and at Dallas a game that Dallas dominated everywhere except the scoreboard. The Chargers have played a much more difficult schedule, have wins over Chiefs, Raiders and Browns and I think probably remember the blowout loss last year at the hands of NE.
Game 4: Jax +4 @ Sea : I just don’t see how anyone could feel good about taking Seattle minus Russell Wilson, minus Chris Carson with Pete Carrol relying on a less than 100% Alex Collins. Wilson has covered up so many of the issues of the Seahawks that I wouldn’t be surprised for this season to completely fall off the rails now. I think the Jags are live here.
Game 5: NYG @ KC -9: I am going to ride with the Chiefs one last time here to see if we have seen rock bottom. The turnover rate seems impossible to continue but yet again we saw the interceptions again last week. KC has played 2 similar NFC East teams to the Giants in WFT and the Eagles and had 2 of their best offensive performances. Maybe this year is just one of those outlier years and Mahomes ends up with 20+ interceptions but I am going to jump in here and hope we see some normalization and regression of those turnovers. Minus the turnovers I don’t see how the Giants keep up and expect KC to win by 2 TDs.
Game 6 Phi– 3@ Det: This lie came back to 3, it is the last stand for the Eagles, I expect a much more aggressive defense, this was all the talk in Philly this week, Eagles coming off there worst performance of the year, this is the last stand for this team and staff.