Month: October 2021

Week 7 Picks 2021

This week feels like one of the toughest/ugliest slates of the year, there is not much I love here and this will probably be my smallest card of the year unless we see major movement Sunday morning.

Week 6: 3-3

2021: 21-16-1

Game 1: Phi +3 @ LV : I think I have a good beat on the Eagles defense, against elite competition they can’t hold up and can be exploited, we have seen that with Dallas, KC and TB, 3 of the 4 top offensive teams by DVOA. Against the rest they can be very good especially teams that are not strong in pass protection, the Eagles defensive line is top 5 in pass rush win rate. I think the Eagles Dline has a big game and on offense this could be a big Miles Sanders as Eagles coaches have talked this week about getting him more involved. This opened 3.5 and immediately got bet down and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops below the 3 by kickoff. I think Eagles win straight up and will be sprinkling on ML as well.

Game 2: KC -4 @ Ten : I remain higher on KC than the overall market and certainly more that the mainstream power rankings have them. Chiefs are #1 in EPA per pass, #2 in DVOA offense all while leading the league in turnovers, only rookie Zach Wilson with 9 has more and the Chiefs are the leaders in fumbles with 6. I expect some turnover regression, yes Mahomes has made some bad throws but he has also been unlucky with some like the one that hit Tyreke Hill in the hands last week. Fumbles are almost all random so we should expect some games with minimum turnover and if that happens this week I just don’t see how the Titans get any stops.

Game 3: Hou +18 @ Ari : I mean 18 points is a ton in the NFL, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Arizona to win by 3 TDs, it’s certainly possible as we basically have the top rated team here vs the worst. I just don’t think the Cardinals will have much incentive to play to the wire in this game, one, we already saw them play them at half speed vs the Jaguars cruise to an easy win and with a huge TNF game vs the Packers I can see them easing off some of the best players late in this game if it is in hand vs the Texans.

Game 4: Cin @ Bal -6: I know the Bengals have been a popular play this week, the Ravens have had some very close late finishes go there way in Detroit, KC and on MNF vs the Colts. I think last week is closer to who we should expect from Baltimore because they are finally getting healthy on defense. I think the Bengals are a little overrated here and we have a major coaching advantage for the Ravens so I am happy to take them in this spot

Week 6 2021 Picks

Very rough week on week 5, 1-2 with teasers and even the one that cashed needed a miracle finish but ‘Ain’t no pity party for yourself You gotta get up rise for your wealth’ Were on to week 6.

Week 5: 2-5-1

2021:18-13-1

TNF: Game 1: TB @ Phi +7: This line moved from 7.5 to 7 despite majority of bets on the Bucs. TB is coming off of a destruction of the Dolphins and you can see why they would be popular but they have massive injuries in the secondary and the Eagles are team that is as pass heavy as any in the league. I fully expect a high scoring game and the Bucs to be able to score into the 30’s but Hurts and the Eagles offense should be able to keep this within striking range and they have continued to be aggressive late in games even when down big so the backdoor cover is definitely in play.

Game 2: Hou +10.5 @ Ind : There are games that come on the board where logic for the bet is “Who is this team to be favored by this many points”. The Colts played a very good game on prime time last week, the best of their season, a game the ended up losing and they remain with just 1 win this year. Colts are 24th in DVOA how are they 10.5 points better than anyone? One thing I will say for Houston is that David Culley is an extremely conservative coach who I believe takes a lot of value in being close in games. Culley is not likely to make high leverage calls that could create big swings either way but rather play down the middle and stay in the mix.

Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaserKC -1 @ Was and LAC +8.5 @ Bal – KC is going to have a field day on offense in this game and Washington has enough injuries and the Heineke has enough turnover level play in him that I think KC could jump out big early in this game. If this comes back down to KC -6.5 even money I will be on that as well.

Chargers are playing great football, I like the Ravens to win a close one but we get Herbert at a TD plus and really the only game I like that goes through the 3 and 7.

Game 4: Min -2.5 @ CAR : This number has risen during the week from Min-1 to 2.5 not a huge move but it wouldn’t surprise me if it gets to the 3 on Sunday morning. The Vikings have been extremely unlucky this year with a few huge high leverage mistakes/ calls going against them and as a result they could easily be 4-1. By DVOA the Vikings are 13th overall, getting a healthy Dalvin Cook back and have a bye coming up so I think this is an all out type game. The Panthers meanwhile have a ton of injuries including Christian McCaffrey who early in the week looked like he might play but was instead put on IR. Panthers will also be without Shaq Thompson and the secondary is extremely thin.

Game 5: Ari @ Cle -3 (-120): This feels like the perfect spot to fade the 5-0 Cards. Kyler Murray is a little banged up and we have seen his TD production slip a little the last few weeks. The Browns will be missing Nick Chubb but with Kareem Hunt I don’t see that injury having much impact, the injury I do believe will matter is Arizona losing their starting C Rodney Hudson.

Game 6: KC -6 @ Wsh: Late add, this line dropped Sunday morning, to me this just feels like the low point for the Chiefs and I don’t give any home field advantage to Washington so this is a play for me at this price

Week 5 Picks

Last week was one of those dream weeks that help make your season. If Tom Brady had not forgot how to complete a pass for 3 quarters we could have gone 7-0 but still had 3 dogs of FG or more win straight up and overall just a fantastic week. We Good over here

Week 4: 6-1

2021: 16-8

Game 1: 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Sea +8 & Vikings -2

I’m have already used the Vikings in 2 teasers and may use them again. Minnesota is 1-3, you can make the case they should be at very least 2-2 but probably could be 3-1. Still they are 1-3 and absolutely needs this game and are going to have one of the biggest advantages in Oline/Dline matches.

Seattle at home is an underdog and a perfect teaser candidate, I think there is a good shot they can win is a huge advanatge to be home on TNF this game but either way this game is likely to be a 1 score game.

Game 2 2 team 6 pt Teaser: Dal -2 & Vikings -2

Using the Vikings again in this one with the Cowboys. Dallas has one of the hottest offenses in the league, they are at home and get the Giants coming off of a dramatic comeback win. It’s early days but Dallas is #2 in DVOA overall this year and I don’t see them tripping up against the Giants.

Game 3: Phi @ Car Over 44.5

I think this total is dependent on what you think of the Panthers defense because I don;t think there is much question that the Eagles defense is a bottom 10 group and Carolina is going to score in this game. In DVOA the Panthers are 4th in defense but early on those rankings do not really account for level of competition and in the first 3 weeks Carolina played the Jets, Texans and a Saints offense that hasn’t hit 200 yards passing. I think Panthers probably have a middle of the pack Defense, Dallas had no problems scoring last week and I think Philly will be able to move the ball as well. I think this game gets into the 50’s pretty easily.

Game 4: Ten-4 @ Jax

The Urban Meyer mess can’t help here but the starting point is from he Jags being one of the worst 3 teams in the league, currently 31 by DVOA. Last week the Titans lost to the Jets in OT but despite missing both their top WRs they still had 430 yards of offense and ran 93 plays. AJ Brown was full particpant on Thursday, with Brown and Henry, Titans should have more than enough to beat this Jags team that has had a lot to deal with this week in terms of distractions.

Game 5: SF +5.5 @ Ari:

This is a game that has a lot of sharp money that has come in on it and it is basically because we have Arizona at the absolute peak of their value, preseason this game was a pick, last week this game was Arizona -2.5 and now it opened 6 after the Cards won again and the 49ers lost at home to Seattle. I don’t downgrade SF with Lance at QB in fact I think the likelihood of a ML win goes up as does the chance they get blown out.

Game 6: GB @ Cin -3

This line has been consistently dropping all week and may end below the 3. The Packers will be without their best and maybe most important defensive player Jaire Alexander and the Bengals can definitely take advantage. The sharp money is clearly playing Bengals in this spot and I think based on the injuries I agree.

Game 7: 2 team 6pt teaser: Dal -1.5 & Bal -1.5

We lost the first teaser with Seattle losing by 9 on TNF so using Dallas again with the Ravens on MNF.

Game 8: Buf @ KC -2.5

Adding the KC game, I am not sure when we will get Patrick Mahomes at home under a FG fav again. This is an overreaction to 2 losses by KC where they had late turnovers that cost them games. KC offense is performing at all time level, Bills have been very good on defense but don’t think it matters much here if the offense has to settle for FGs.

Week 4 Picks 2021

We were Back in Business Week 3 after a down week 2 and started off week 3 with a couple of bets n the openers where the line moves have agreed with the bets.

LW: 4-2

2021: 10-7

Game 1: KC -5.5 @ Phi – I bet this game before MNF. Even though I had the Eagles in that game this line seemed much more likely to go to 7 than 4 and I was ok holding 5.5 even if Philly won. We get the Chiefs off of 2 straight losses where late mistakes cost them and through 3 weeks they have played well enough to be 3-0 despite playing very good competition. The Eagles have lost 3 starters on the offensive line and defensively I don’t see how they slow KC down without a bunch of turnover help. This line has moveed to 7 which would probably still be aplay for me but I obviously feel better about the number I got.

Game 2 TB -5.5 @ NE : What scares me about this game is that it is maybe the most lopsided bet game in a long time with 85-88% of bets on TB depending on where you look and that is never a good thing especially for a primetime game. The line has remained under a TD so despite the number of bets there seems to be some strong money on NE. For me, this feels like a game that if TB gets up early, I don’t see how NE catches them, last week The Rams and previously the Cowboys were able to take advantage of the TB issues in the secondary with 3 and 4 wide sets, that doesnt seem like someghing the Pats and their rookie QB are going to excel at.

Game 3: Bal +1 @ Den: The final of the 3 opening numbers I bet was Ravens as a small dog against the Broncos. Denver is 3-0 but as has been mentioned all week the 3 teams they have beat are 0-10. Denver has performed exactly how you would want vs weaker competition but there is still a question of how they will look against a playoff team. I think the injuries for Denver at WR and Chubb on defense make them a tier below a team like the Ravens.

Game 4: NYG +7.5 @ NO: I think this is a great spot for the Giants, the Saints have been great defensively but I don’t know how you trust an offense this bad with more than a TD and I do think Giants are live in this game.

Game 5: Sea +3(-120) @ SF – I still have Seattle as the better team over SF despite 2 straight losses and I don’t think SF has much of a home field so at 3 this is definitely a play. SF was less than impressive in Philly and even in the opener against Detroit and since have had a number of key injuries. Coming off of 2 losses that they led both by 2 scores I can see Seattle coming through and holding on to a straight up win here and will have a bet on the ML as well.

Game 6: Cle -1 @ Min: Kirk Cousins is off to a great start but historically has struggled vs pressure and the Browns are one of the best front 4’s in the NFL add in that Kevin Stefanski coached in Minnesota and knows Cousins as well as anyone and I like the Browns in this spot.

Game 7: Late Add Ari+4 @ LAR

This seems to be one of the games that lots of sharp money is coming in on, you get the Rams coming off of their Game of the Year win last vs TB and even though this is a division game it is a let down spot. Arizona had their let down spot last week and played a terrible half vs the Jags before coming back and this seems like a nice spot to get more than a FG.