Week 4 Picks 2021

We were Back in Business Week 3 after a down week 2 and started off week 3 with a couple of bets n the openers where the line moves have agreed with the bets.

LW: 4-2

2021: 10-7

Game 1: KC -5.5 @ Phi – I bet this game before MNF. Even though I had the Eagles in that game this line seemed much more likely to go to 7 than 4 and I was ok holding 5.5 even if Philly won. We get the Chiefs off of 2 straight losses where late mistakes cost them and through 3 weeks they have played well enough to be 3-0 despite playing very good competition. The Eagles have lost 3 starters on the offensive line and defensively I don’t see how they slow KC down without a bunch of turnover help. This line has moveed to 7 which would probably still be aplay for me but I obviously feel better about the number I got.

Game 2 TB -5.5 @ NE : What scares me about this game is that it is maybe the most lopsided bet game in a long time with 85-88% of bets on TB depending on where you look and that is never a good thing especially for a primetime game. The line has remained under a TD so despite the number of bets there seems to be some strong money on NE. For me, this feels like a game that if TB gets up early, I don’t see how NE catches them, last week The Rams and previously the Cowboys were able to take advantage of the TB issues in the secondary with 3 and 4 wide sets, that doesnt seem like someghing the Pats and their rookie QB are going to excel at.

Game 3: Bal +1 @ Den: The final of the 3 opening numbers I bet was Ravens as a small dog against the Broncos. Denver is 3-0 but as has been mentioned all week the 3 teams they have beat are 0-10. Denver has performed exactly how you would want vs weaker competition but there is still a question of how they will look against a playoff team. I think the injuries for Denver at WR and Chubb on defense make them a tier below a team like the Ravens.

Game 4: NYG +7.5 @ NO: I think this is a great spot for the Giants, the Saints have been great defensively but I don’t know how you trust an offense this bad with more than a TD and I do think Giants are live in this game.

Game 5: Sea +3(-120) @ SF – I still have Seattle as the better team over SF despite 2 straight losses and I don’t think SF has much of a home field so at 3 this is definitely a play. SF was less than impressive in Philly and even in the opener against Detroit and since have had a number of key injuries. Coming off of 2 losses that they led both by 2 scores I can see Seattle coming through and holding on to a straight up win here and will have a bet on the ML as well.

Game 6: Cle -1 @ Min: Kirk Cousins is off to a great start but historically has struggled vs pressure and the Browns are one of the best front 4’s in the NFL add in that Kevin Stefanski coached in Minnesota and knows Cousins as well as anyone and I like the Browns in this spot.

Game 7: Late Add Ari+4 @ LAR

This seems to be one of the games that lots of sharp money is coming in on, you get the Rams coming off of their Game of the Year win last vs TB and even though this is a division game it is a let down spot. Arizona had their let down spot last week and played a terrible half vs the Jags before coming back and this seems like a nice spot to get more than a FG.

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