Month: September 2020

2020 Week 2 Picks (TNF)

Week 1: 2 W 2L – 1P

Last week was a standstill with the push in the Bengals game.

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Game 1: TNF- Cin @ Cle -6

Bet% Cin 58% Cle 42%

I was on the Browns last week against the Ravens and while they clearly played poorly I’m not sure how much the final score told us about the Browns. The Browns had 3 turnovers in the game, 2 fumbles and 1 interception but they also turned the ball over on downs 3 times as they went 0-3 on 4th down. In the end it feels like they tried to do to much against a team they knew they had to be at their best to beat.

I was also on the Bengals last week and it’s a game they should have covered easily but Burrow missed a couple of easy TD passes, then threw a terrible INT and in the end they missed a gimme FG that would have taken the game to OT. I came away feeling bullish on the Bengals long term but in the short term this is a team I want to fade.

This is great spot to fade Cincy, we get a rookie QB making his first road start on a short week playing against a team that is 0-1 and had terrible turnover luck in game 1.   I grade the Browns offense much higher than the Chargers offense the Bengals saw last week and think the Browns win this game by double digits.

2020 – Week 1 NFL Picks

It is year 7 of posting picks on this blog. Last season was the worst year I have had and the second losing season as we finished 44-48-1. 2020 is like no other year and this NFL season will be a really interesting one as we will need to figure out how many of the truisms we believe in actually hold up in this strange Covid year. Let’s get to work.

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Game 1: Cle +7.5 @ Bal

Bet% Cle 38% Bal 62%

The Ravens were the runaway stars of the 2019 regular season while Cleveland was maybe the team that disappointed their preseason projections the most.

I like the theory that we are often a year early on teams that are anointed to take a big leap forward. That was true with the 49ers and I can see it being true for the Browns. The Browns were perhaps the worst coached team in the NFL last year and having a credible, professional head coach with a plan that fits his personnel, especially on offense should be major upgrade.