Week 1: 2 W 2L – 1P
Last week was a standstill with the push in the Bengals game.
Game 1: TNF- Cin @ Cle -6
Bet% Cin 58% Cle 42%
I was on the Browns last week against the Ravens and while they clearly played poorly I’m not sure how much the final score told us about the Browns. The Browns had 3 turnovers in the game, 2 fumbles and 1 interception but they also turned the ball over on downs 3 times as they went 0-3 on 4th down. In the end it feels like they tried to do to much against a team they knew they had to be at their best to beat.
I was also on the Bengals last week and it’s a game they should have covered easily but Burrow missed a couple of easy TD passes, then threw a terrible INT and in the end they missed a gimme FG that would have taken the game to OT. I came away feeling bullish on the Bengals long term but in the short term this is a team I want to fade.
This is great spot to fade Cincy, we get a rookie QB making his first road start on a short week playing against a team that is 0-1 and had terrible turnover luck in game 1. I grade the Browns offense much higher than the Chargers offense the Bengals saw last week and think the Browns win this game by double digits.
Game 2: LAR @ Phi pk
Bet% LAR 71% PHI 29%
This line opened with Eagls -3 and moved all the way to Rams -1.5 before coming back to the Eagles being small favs. The movememt was based on week 1 where the Eagles lost as 6 point favorites in Washington and the Rams won in Primetime vs the Cowboys.
Last week I took Washington because the Eagles were short so many key players, well many of those players will be back here. Eagles will get Miles Sanders, Lane Johnson, Javon Hargrave, Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham all back. Lane Johnson has been argueably the most important lineman on the Eagles the last number of years, that is certainly the case if you look at the record of the Eagles with him vs without him. In games Lane Johnson has missed due to injury/suspension the Eagles are 6-12, in games Johnson starts and plays the Eagles are 36-17.
Doug Pederson is 2-0 vs Sean Mcvay and both those games were in LA, the last one the Eagles were double digit underdogs. Eagles win a close one again here.
Game 3: Min @ Ind -3
Bet% Min 76% Ind 24%
Last week the Colts had probably the worst loss on the card, not only did they kill every teaser, parlay bet but also sunk about 30% of survivor pool entries. Lost in that disastrous result was the fact that the Colts actually dominated the game. Colts out-gained the Jags 445-241 yards, they had 27 1st downs and 7 minutes more of posession. Unfortunately being minus 2 in turnovers and only going 2-5 in the redzone allowed th Jags to stay around and pull out the win.
Last week the Vikings gave up 522 yards of offense, 6.9 yards per play and allowed the Packers to have possession for over 41 minutes. The injuries the Vikings have on defense will make it difficult to hold a good Colts offense.
This line is also giving us a very clear indicator. We have 76% of bets on the Vikings and the line hasn’t moved off the 3 at any point this week.
Game 4: Buf @ Mia +6
Bet% Buf 76% Mia 24%
I have always liked betting Miami as a home underdog in Septemeber because of their home field advantage and even with Covid and no fans that advantage of the heat and humidity continues to be there.
Last year when Ryan Fitzpatrick took over the Dolphins went on to be one of the best ATS teams. Fitzpatrick is capable of winning you game or completely lighting it on fire with interceptions. Fitzpatrick had one of those bad Fitz games last week and because he did and the Bills beat the Jets handily nobody wants to back Miami this week. The public is on the Bills heavy at 76% and you know they are going to be a popular teaser bet, this feels like the perfect week to bet contrarian and take the Dolphins.
Game 5: Det +6.5 @ GB
Bet% Det 23% GB 77%
This is really about line value. Last season when we thought the Packers were better than this year and that the Lions of 2019 were worse than this year and there were fans in the stands, GB was favored by 4. Now this week because the Lions blew a late lead to CHicago and the PAckers blew the doors of the Vikings the line is just under a TD.
The one big question we have to point out with the Lions side is they very banged up this week. On offense Kenny Goliday will miss his second straight game and the secondary is missing Trufant and Justin Coleman. Could we see Aaron Rodgers destroying the depleted Lions secondary? Yes of course but overall, betting against a team that played their best game in years and getting 2 more points on the line than last year is great value and enough for me to take the Detroit Lions.