This week feels like one of the toughest/ugliest slates of the year, there is not much I love here and this will probably be my smallest card of the year unless we see major movement Sunday morning.
Week 6: 3-3
Game 1: Phi +3 @ LV : I think I have a good beat on the Eagles defense, against elite competition they can’t hold up and can be exploited, we have seen that with Dallas, KC and TB, 3 of the 4 top offensive teams by DVOA. Against the rest they can be very good especially teams that are not strong in pass protection, the Eagles defensive line is top 5 in pass rush win rate. I think the Eagles Dline has a big game and on offense this could be a big Miles Sanders as Eagles coaches have talked this week about getting him more involved. This opened 3.5 and immediately got bet down and I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops below the 3 by kickoff. I think Eagles win straight up and will be sprinkling on ML as well.
Game 2: KC -4 @ Ten : I remain higher on KC than the overall market and certainly more that the mainstream power rankings have them. Chiefs are #1 in EPA per pass, #2 in DVOA offense all while leading the league in turnovers, only rookie Zach Wilson with 9 has more and the Chiefs are the leaders in fumbles with 6. I expect some turnover regression, yes Mahomes has made some bad throws but he has also been unlucky with some like the one that hit Tyreke Hill in the hands last week. Fumbles are almost all random so we should expect some games with minimum turnover and if that happens this week I just don’t see how the Titans get any stops.
Game 3: Hou +18 @ Ari : I mean 18 points is a ton in the NFL, I don’t think it’s out of the question for Arizona to win by 3 TDs, it’s certainly possible as we basically have the top rated team here vs the worst. I just don’t think the Cardinals will have much incentive to play to the wire in this game, one, we already saw them play them at half speed vs the Jaguars cruise to an easy win and with a huge TNF game vs the Packers I can see them easing off some of the best players late in this game if it is in hand vs the Texans.
Game 4: Cin @ Bal -6: I know the Bengals have been a popular play this week, the Ravens have had some very close late finishes go there way in Detroit, KC and on MNF vs the Colts. I think last week is closer to who we should expect from Baltimore because they are finally getting healthy on defense. I think the Bengals are a little overrated here and we have a major coaching advantage for the Ravens so I am happy to take them in this spot