Week 8

2016 Week 8 picks

2 straight 3-3 weeks and basically .500 since week 1 has really shown just how hard this season has been and the need to  cut out the mistakes or bets that I know are low probability long term. This week that meant not betting Seattle even though in my head I keep thinking this line (-1.5) is too cheap. It is cheap but it’s clearly cheap for a reason. Seattle is coming off of a very physical, very emotional game on SNF and now have to travel across the country and play what is still an elite QB and offense. It’s a terrible spot that I wanted to bet all week but will not because I am trying to be smart. Seattle may win this week but if this game is played under these same exact scenarios they probably go 4-6.

 

Week 7: 3-3-1

2016: 22-17-2

2015: 63-37-3

Game 1: Det +1.5 @ Hou

Bet% Det 56% Hou 64%

This is a game that where we have 2 teams with 1 unit playing very well and one playing terrible and I think who wins comes down to which of the poor units you expect to outperform.

On the plus side, the Lions are 13th in offensive DVOA, I have them #6 in passing offense and 17 in running offense. The Texans defense is 12 in DVOA defense 7th vs the pass and 26th vs the run. While the numbers are very similar I give the advantage to the Lions here because I think injuries to key players have lowered their overall efficiency.

The Lions started the year with Riddick and Abdullah at RB as a sort of Thunder and Lightning combo. Abdullah got hurt and they had hoped Dwayne Washington would take over and then he got hurt. Last week the Lions were without Riddick and Washington and newly signed Justin Forsett and Zach Zenner split carries. This week the Lions get both Riddick and Washington back along with Eric Ebron who missed the last 3 weeks with injury.

On the flip side we have the 32nd ranked Texas offense vs the 32nd ranked Lions defense. So again who do we expect to outperform? Well again I think the Lions getting healthy this week helps give them the advantage. Lions last week got their best pass rushed Ziggy Ensah back and while Darius Slay and DeAndre Levy will miss this game, Detroit should get Haloti Nagta back and he and a healthy Ziggy Ensah should give the Detroit defense a boost.

On the flip side the Houston offense is coming off of a dismal performance on MNF and if Osweiler gets off to a slow start or Detroit scores early and forces Houston to score I think you will see the home crowd turn on Brock Osweiler again and it could get ugly. Not unlike Bortles on TNF, the trust of the cord and his teammates in Osweiler feels like it is at a tipping point and a slow start here could be disastrous.

In the end you have 1 QB playing as well as any Qb right now, Stafford is 3rd in passer rating vs a QB really struggling and we also saw Lamar Miller get banged up in that MNF game which is a problem since he has been the only part of the offense that has been successful and they will need him to be great if they are winning here.

Oh we have also seen a steady line drop here, wouldn’t be surprised it ends at a pick or Detroit a slight fav, follow the $$ (more…)

Week 8 Review – When it all Falls down

The Plinko Gods Giveth and the Plinko Gods taketh away. Last week in a really big week, there were 3 close games that could have gone either way and all went mine, this week there were 4 Sunday games that all looked good in the 4th Quarter and all 4 ended up going the wrong way. The 2 prime time games helped salvage the week and save me from disaster but not enough to save me from a terrible Sunday morning that felt like a kick in the mouth.

Woods superkicked

Week 8: 3-4-1

2015 ATS: 29-19-2 

Week 8 Results

Week 8

 What Went Right:

  • London Mornings: The Lions went into the game as one of the worst defenses vs the pass and rush, 32nd in opp passer rating and 32nd in opp yards per rush att. The Chiefs didn’t have a huge day in the air but on the ground the Chiefs gained 204 yards on just 32 carries. The key to the game was the Chiefs getting an amazing 6 TDs in 7 RZ trips way above their season averages of 3.4 RZ trips and 41.7% TD conversions.
  • The Saints Defense: the bet on the Giants was that the Saints defense would get dominated by Eli and the Giants passing game. Eli had 350 yards passing 6TDs, 0 Ints and a passer rating of 138.2
  • The Broncos Defense: Took under 46.5 in GB – Den feeling that the GB offense had not been quite as good vs better defenses this year and the Broncos D was not only the best they had faces this year but was in fact the best in the league. This was maybe the best performance of the week, holding Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards passing.

What Went Wrong:

  • 4th Quarters : NFL Plinko has never been so cruel. In 3 of the 4 Sunday morning games (Pit-Cin, NYG-NO, Chi-Min) all 3 of my picks led the game midway or late in the 4th Q, the 4th game Cle-Ari had Cleveland leading at halftime and down 4 with the ball deep in Cardinals territory late in position to not oly cover but maybe take the lead outride. While watching the games I thought worst case I would go 2-2, 0-3-1 was crushing.
  • Injuries: A part of this review is too see not just what went wrong but also what would you change? What went wrong that you can avoid? The one thing you can never account for is in game injuries and this week it was amazing how many teams I had bet on suffered key injuries during the game. The Bears lost Matt Forte while leading, The Steelers lost Levean Bell while leading, McCown finished the games with badly bruised ribs that certainly affected his play. Just a really unlucky week
  • The Giants Defense: When capping the Giants Saints game I mentioned how there was concern with the Giants Defense because they have basically lived off of turnovers sine the Amukamara injury. Against the Saints they had 1 Interception and the saints scored on literally very other drive, Brees finished with 505 yards and 7TDs.

What Did We Learn:

The game I am most upset about betting was the TNF Dolphins- Patriots game. While Miami had come in with 2 huge wins they were over the Titans and Texans, 2 teams that have been a mess all year and now we had a matchup between Dan Campbell and Bill Bellicheck on a short week with NE at home. This should have been a no play, we had no real indication of how Miami would look against a great team and the coaching mismatch was so large that really this one was just a hope and prayer. Taking a rookie coach, especially one who has never been a head coach before vs an all-time great on a short week is just a bad bet. I think in situations where you have either extra time to prepare or an extra short period of time to prepare these types of coaching mismatches matter more.