London

2016 Week 4 Picks

Week 3 was our first losing week of 2016 and as I mentioned not getting the best of the number cost me in 3 separate games. While I understand its part of the game and know I had some great luck earlier it is hard not to be a little bitter when you see the score fall on a number that was available at diff parts of the week. This week I have tried to be better prepared to get good numbers early but did miss that Cleveland +9.5 that was their on Monday.

Last Week  2-3-1

2016: 10-5-1

2015: 63 – 37 – 3

Game 1: Ind (1-2) @ Jax (0-3) Over 49

Bet% Over 75% Under 25%

This is the early game in London and I had a tough time deciding between the total and side. I like the Jags but not sure there is any value at +2. The total I think is the play because the Jags offense so far has simply not been able to capitalise on their opportunities and this feels like the perfect defense to get right against.

The Jags offense through 3 weeks has scored only 18 points per game on offense after scoring 22.5 last season, the offense is 30th in DVOA to start this season after finishing 21st last season and their yards per point is up to 17.6 this year compared to 14.4 last year.

After playing the Packers (10th in defensive DVOA), Ravens (5th in Defensive DVOA) and even the Chargers (16th in Def DVOA) the Jags get easily the worst defense they have seen this season and I think we can expect their best offensive performance so far.

The Colts are giving up 24.3 points per game to offenses through 3 weeks which is 20th and the Jags are giving up 28 which is 28th. The Colts offense is scoring 27 points per game 5th in the league, even though the Jags defense has been better this year the cots should be able to score.

This is the Jags 4th trip to London which should make them very comfortable in this game, they understand the schedule, the travel and should be able acclimate quickly in this game. A best case scenario for our over would be the Jags jumping out ahead early and the Colts needing to put up points late to come back. We should also remember that in their last meeting in Dec 2015, the Jags put up 51 vs the Colts.

Game 2: Den (3-0) @ TB (1-2) +3

Bet% Den 85 TB 15%

This is definitely this week’s “Hold your Nose game” and my fav bet of the week.  Denver is 3-0 and the defense looks to be very similar to last years dominant unit, add to that they are coming off of a very impressive win on the road vs the Broncos  where Trevor Siemian passed for 4TDs. Now contrast that to the Bucs who have lost 2 straight games both in very disappointing fashion so yeah why wouldn’t you want to bet Denver at this short price? Well it turns out everyone does want to. Here is an alert I earlier this week. (more…)

Week 8 Review – When it all Falls down

The Plinko Gods Giveth and the Plinko Gods taketh away. Last week in a really big week, there were 3 close games that could have gone either way and all went mine, this week there were 4 Sunday games that all looked good in the 4th Quarter and all 4 ended up going the wrong way. The 2 prime time games helped salvage the week and save me from disaster but not enough to save me from a terrible Sunday morning that felt like a kick in the mouth.

Woods superkicked

Week 8: 3-4-1

2015 ATS: 29-19-2 

Week 8 Results

Week 8

 What Went Right:

  • London Mornings: The Lions went into the game as one of the worst defenses vs the pass and rush, 32nd in opp passer rating and 32nd in opp yards per rush att. The Chiefs didn’t have a huge day in the air but on the ground the Chiefs gained 204 yards on just 32 carries. The key to the game was the Chiefs getting an amazing 6 TDs in 7 RZ trips way above their season averages of 3.4 RZ trips and 41.7% TD conversions.
  • The Saints Defense: the bet on the Giants was that the Saints defense would get dominated by Eli and the Giants passing game. Eli had 350 yards passing 6TDs, 0 Ints and a passer rating of 138.2
  • The Broncos Defense: Took under 46.5 in GB – Den feeling that the GB offense had not been quite as good vs better defenses this year and the Broncos D was not only the best they had faces this year but was in fact the best in the league. This was maybe the best performance of the week, holding Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards passing.

What Went Wrong:

  • 4th Quarters : NFL Plinko has never been so cruel. In 3 of the 4 Sunday morning games (Pit-Cin, NYG-NO, Chi-Min) all 3 of my picks led the game midway or late in the 4th Q, the 4th game Cle-Ari had Cleveland leading at halftime and down 4 with the ball deep in Cardinals territory late in position to not oly cover but maybe take the lead outride. While watching the games I thought worst case I would go 2-2, 0-3-1 was crushing.
  • Injuries: A part of this review is too see not just what went wrong but also what would you change? What went wrong that you can avoid? The one thing you can never account for is in game injuries and this week it was amazing how many teams I had bet on suffered key injuries during the game. The Bears lost Matt Forte while leading, The Steelers lost Levean Bell while leading, McCown finished the games with badly bruised ribs that certainly affected his play. Just a really unlucky week
  • The Giants Defense: When capping the Giants Saints game I mentioned how there was concern with the Giants Defense because they have basically lived off of turnovers sine the Amukamara injury. Against the Saints they had 1 Interception and the saints scored on literally very other drive, Brees finished with 505 yards and 7TDs.

What Did We Learn:

The game I am most upset about betting was the TNF Dolphins- Patriots game. While Miami had come in with 2 huge wins they were over the Titans and Texans, 2 teams that have been a mess all year and now we had a matchup between Dan Campbell and Bill Bellicheck on a short week with NE at home. This should have been a no play, we had no real indication of how Miami would look against a great team and the coaching mismatch was so large that really this one was just a hope and prayer. Taking a rookie coach, especially one who has never been a head coach before vs an all-time great on a short week is just a bad bet. I think in situations where you have either extra time to prepare or an extra short period of time to prepare these types of coaching mismatches matter more.

NFL Week 4 Picks – Being Prepared for a Hurricane

I didn’t get a chance to really look at the opening lines this week until late Tuesday and in doing so I missed out on a few great opportunities. Week 4 saw some dramatic line moves especially in the totals due to the impending Hurricane Joaquin, the sharps bet heavily on the unders on games like Was – Phi and quickly drove the lines down.

Its a good lesson on the importance of checking out the opening lines and being prepared early to take advantage of opening lines either because of major factors like weather & injuries or simply knowing that certain numbers are going to be bet a certain way because of public perception.

Season ATS 12-7 Last Week 4-3

Game1 NYJ -1.5 vs MIA (In London England)

Bet% NYJ 67% Mia 33%

All week I kept thinking of reasons not to bet the Jets like the game is in London and there is definitely some unknowns that come with that, The Dolphins have underperformed all year and at some point are going to play up to their talent and the there are rumours that Philbins job is on the line so you never know how that impacts the team. In the end,this feels like it’s too good a matchup at a cheap price.

The Jets and Dolphins have played similar levels of competition but had very different results. The Jets are 2-1 with a point differential of +27 while Miami is 1-2 with a point differential of -23. The Jets have been helped in their wins with turnover margins that are not sustainable but what is sustainable is their dominant defense.

The Jets are #2 in defensive DVOA, against the pass they are #4 in avg opp passer rating, 66.5 which includes Andrew Luck, 3rd in opp passing yards per attempt and 7th vs the run giving up 3.5 yards per rush. Miami has not had much luck running the ball so far this season averaging only 4.0 yards per rush and the Jets just faced the Eagles last week who have very similar run schemes to the Dolphins and held them to 3.2 yards per rush.  That means the middling Dolphins pass game will have to carry the offense vs the dominant Jets pass defense.

On the flip side the Dolphins run defense has not got better even with the addition of Suh to the defensive line, they are 22nd in the league giving up 4.2 yards per att and the Jets get Chris Ivory back this week. Miami’s pass defense has been even worse giving up 7.9 yards per attempt (29th) which considering who they have played, Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor aren’t exactly a murders row should provide the Jets plenty of opportunities to score.

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