totals

2016 Week 8 picks

2 straight 3-3 weeks and basically .500 since week 1 has really shown just how hard this season has been and the need to cut out the mistakes or bets that I know are low probability long term. This week that meant not betting Seattle even though in my head I keep thinking this line (-1.5) is too cheap. It is cheap but it’s clearly cheap for a reason. Seattle is coming off of a very physical, very emotional game on SNF and now have to travel across the country and play what is still an elite QB and offense. It’s a terrible spot that I wanted to bet all week but will not because I am trying to be smart. Seattle may win this week but if this game is played under these same exact scenarios they probably go 4-6.

Week 7: 3-3-1

2016: 22-17-2

2015: 63-37-3

Game 1: Det +1.5 @ Hou

Bet% Det 56% Hou 64%

This is a game that where we have 2 teams with 1 unit playing very well and one playing terrible and I think who wins comes down to which of the poor units you expect to outperform.

On the plus side, the Lions are 13^th in offensive DVOA, I have them #6 in passing offense and 17 in running offense. The Texans defense is 12 in DVOA defense 7^th vs the pass and 26^th vs the run. While the numbers are very similar I give the advantage to the Lions here because I think injuries to key players have lowered their overall efficiency.

The Lions started the year with Riddick and Abdullah at RB as a sort of Thunder and Lightning combo. Abdullah got hurt and they had hoped Dwayne Washington would take over and then he got hurt. Last week the Lions were without Riddick and Washington and newly signed Justin Forsett and Zach Zenner split carries. This week the Lions get both Riddick and Washington back along with Eric Ebron who missed the last 3 weeks with injury.

On the flip side we have the 32^nd ranked Texas offense vs the 32^nd ranked Lions defense. So again who do we expect to outperform? Well again I think the Lions getting healthy this week helps give them the advantage. Lions last week got their best pass rushed Ziggy Ensah back and while Darius Slay and DeAndre Levy will miss this game, Detroit should get Haloti Nagta back and he and a healthy Ziggy Ensah should give the Detroit defense a boost.

On the flip side the Houston offense is coming off of a dismal performance on MNF and if Osweiler gets off to a slow start or Detroit scores early and forces Houston to score I think you will see the home crowd turn on Brock Osweiler again and it could get ugly. Not unlike Bortles on TNF, the trust of the cord and his teammates in Osweiler feels like it is at a tipping point and a slow start here could be disastrous.

In the end you have 1 QB playing as well as any Qb right now, Stafford is 3^rd in passer rating vs a QB really struggling and we also saw Lamar Miller get banged up in that MNF game which is a problem since he has been the only part of the offense that has been successful and they will need him to be great if they are winning here.

Oh we have also seen a steady line drop here, wouldn’t be surprised it ends at a pick or Detroit a slight fav, follow the $$ (more…)

2016 Week 4 Picks

Week 3 was our first losing week of 2016 and as I mentioned not getting the best of the number cost me in 3 separate games. While I understand its part of the game and know I had some great luck earlier it is hard not to be a little bitter when you see the score fall on a number that was available at diff parts of the week. This week I have tried to be better prepared to get good numbers early but did miss that Cleveland +9.5 that was their on Monday.

Last Week 2-3-1

2016: 10-5-1

2015: 63 – 37 – 3

Game 1: Ind (1-2) @ Jax (0-3) Over 49

Bet% Over 75% Under 25%

This is the early game in London and I had a tough time deciding between the total and side. I like the Jags but not sure there is any value at +2. The total I think is the play because the Jags offense so far has simply not been able to capitalise on their opportunities and this feels like the perfect defense to get right against.

The Jags offense through 3 weeks has scored only 18 points per game on offense after scoring 22.5 last season, the offense is 30^th in DVOA to start this season after finishing 21^st last season and their yards per point is up to 17.6 this year compared to 14.4 last year.

After playing the Packers (10^th in defensive DVOA), Ravens (5^th in Defensive DVOA) and even the Chargers (16^th in Def DVOA) the Jags get easily the worst defense they have seen this season and I think we can expect their best offensive performance so far.

The Colts are giving up 24.3 points per game to offenses through 3 weeks which is 20^th and the Jags are giving up 28 which is 28^th. The Colts offense is scoring 27 points per game 5^th in the league, even though the Jags defense has been better this year the cots should be able to score.

This is the Jags 4^th trip to London which should make them very comfortable in this game, they understand the schedule, the travel and should be able acclimate quickly in this game. A best case scenario for our over would be the Jags jumping out ahead early and the Colts needing to put up points late to come back. We should also remember that in their last meeting in Dec 2015, the Jags put up 51 vs the Colts.

Game 2: Den (3-0) @ TB (1-2) +3

Bet% Den 85 TB 15%

This is definitely this week’s “Hold your Nose game” and my fav bet of the week. Denver is 3-0 and the defense looks to be very similar to last years dominant unit, add to that they are coming off of a very impressive win on the road vs the Broncos where Trevor Siemian passed for 4TDs. Now contrast that to the Bucs who have lost 2 straight games both in very disappointing fashion so yeah why wouldn’t you want to bet Denver at this short price? Well it turns out everyone does want to. Here is an alert I earlier this week. (more…)

Week 9 – Gotta be Lucky to Be Good or Good to be Lucky

Its a thin line between Good and Lucky and this week there was a really thin line between a 2-3 week and 3-2 week. And this was it

Just the way it was drawn up, a last second TD for the Over and Win! Pure Unicorn Magic!

Week 9: 3-2

2015 ATS: 32-21-2

Week 9 results

What Went Right

Totals – All 3 wins this week were totals and even though a couple were really close and one a near miracle, the game flow for all of the games was pretty much what I had hoped for. The Rams Vikings game went under even though it opened as the lowest total of the week and the game went to OT. Both those teams are built for unders week in week out.
Dumb Luck, Sort of– The Giants–Bucs game was unbelievably lucky to go over with that last play of the game but really that game should have had no problem getting over. There was over 700 yards of offense in this games and 8 redzone trips, the Bucs went 1-4 in the redzone and there were some killer drops, Mike Evans had 6 drops himself which was a record according to ESPN Stats & Info. The Drops, RZ FGs and turnovers that kept the score down much lower than the game flow would have indicated.

What Went Wrong

Betting against the Vikings– For the 3^rd straight week I lost betting against the Vikings, who are now 7-1 ATS. Vikings continue to baffle, they are plus 28 in point differential and +22 ATS differential, so on average they are covering by about 3 points per game. In terms of efficiency they still rank low 24^th overall in Weighted DVOA, 27^th in Offensive DVOA but just keep covering.
Square Teaser of the Week: Both sides of the teaser lost but really it’s the Atlanta- SF side that is the lesson here. Atl had basically 80% of the bets and I’m sure there was no game used in teasers more than that one because you could get them down to 1. Atlanta was never in position to cover and did have a shot to take the lead late when they drove down to the SF 5 yard line down 4 but a terrible call to go for the FG instead of going for it ended those hopes.

What Did We Learn

Recent Trends Matter: We’re at appoint now where with 8/9 weeks in the books some of the teams look very different today than they did a month ago and definitely 2 months ago. I will use last 3 game 4 game trends a little more and full season trends a little less.

Atlanta is a perfect example of why this is important, after starting the season 5-0 and 4-1 ATS their overall numbers are still very good but there has been a significant drop in their run game the last 3 games. Through 5 games they were averaging 4.4 yards per rush which provided a great balance to the passing game, on the season they are now at 4.1 yards per rush but over their last 3 games they averaging only 3.4 yards per rush which s 27^th. They clearly haven’t been the same team the since their start and the huge drop in the run game has been why, the 3.4 in the last 3 games is more telling than the 4.1 overall.

Week 7 Results – Plinko for the Win

Week 8 was a big bounce back week after suffering the first losing week of the season in Week 7 but what this week really highlights is how often ATS wins and losses come down to a single play or bounce. There were 2 games I was dead wrong on (No @ Ind, Min @ Det) and 2 games that I was definitely on the right side (Hou @ Mia, Cle @ Stl) the 3 other games were all toss ups and luckily they all went my way. Luck or not, wins are wins and reason to strut a little.

Week 7: 5-2

Season ATS 26-15-1

Week 7 Results

What Went Right

Dan Campbells Dolphins– For the second week in a row, Miami blew out the opposition and dominated the game on the ground. Everything went right for the Dolphins who scored 21 in the 1stQ and lead 41-0 at half. Campbell’s commitment to Lamar Miller and the Miami run game paid off big again as Miller ran for 175 yards on just 14 carries as this game was over early.
Todd Gurley and the Rams Defense. The Browns came in with the 31st ranked run defense and the Rams took full advantage averaging 6.1 yards per rush and 2 TDs. The Rams pass rush also won their matchup, they had 16 pressure plays including 4 sacks. The Browns seemed to get worn down as this game went which is how I thought the game would play out.
Nick Folk and Plinko– Gill Alexander, @beatingthebook on twitter, hosts the best NFL betting podcast on the planet “The NFL Megapod” and often compares betting NFL games to Plinko, the old Price is Right game. I often use Gill’s line here because it is really a perfect description of how so many games are determined. This week all the plinko bounces went my way. Nick Folk hit a 55 yard FG with under 30 seconds left to save a Jets cover in a game that they were within 1 score the whole way until the last 2 minutes. The Giants were outplayed most of the game but got 2 Def/ST TDs including a game winning TD on a 100 yd KR. In the 6pt teaser on MNF, the Ravens had a chance on the last play of the game to tie the game and kill the teaser but came up 4 yards short. Plinko for the win!

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Week 3 – 0 -2 Teams teetering on the Ledge

It is amazing how many times this week we have heard games described as ‘must win’ for the 0-2 teams and while usually the term must win is over used, going 0-3 historically has been a death blow to teams hoping to make playoffs. Since 2007, 5 teams have made the playoffs after going 0-2 but if you change that to 0-3 only 5 teams in history have made the playoffs so clearly the road becomes very difficult. Now there is an important caveat in that usually teams that start 0-2 aren’t very good and not expected to make the playoffs anyways, which makes this year kind of unique as The Seahawks, Colts, Ravens and Eagles all were expected to be serious contenders this year but find themselves 0-2 and teetering on disaster.

Season ATS 8-4 Last Week 3-3

Game 1 Was @ NYG -3

Game 2 Cin @ Bal -2.5

Bet % Cin 50% Bal 50%

The Ravens are the first 0-2 I am looking at this week as they play the 2-0 Bengals. Looking at the schedule this really is must win for the Ravens after they played a very tough opener in Denver, where they lost a 1 score game and then dropped a bad one in Oakland. Now after playing at home this week they have to go back on the road again, this time on a short week and play in Pittsburgh on TNF.

Looking at the first 2 weeks, Joe Flacco and the Ravens passing game has been performing far below their established levels from last season, the Ravens passer rating this season is 75.7 as compared to a rating of 91.last year and early on they have has issues with interceptions with 3, Flacco had 12 in all of 2014.

As for Cincy, they have been very good to start the season but I do think that Daulton has been playing a little above his ability, he has posted a passer rating of 120.3 so far while his career rating is 86. Coming into the season these were 2 very even teams by DVOA, 6th and 8th, but when you factor in home field and the discrepancy in how important this game is to the 2 teams I really like the Ravens in this spot to keep their season alive.