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Week 9 – Gotta be Lucky to Be Good or Good to be Lucky

Its a thin line between Good and Lucky and this week there was a really thin line between a 2-3 week and 3-2 week. And this was it

Just the way it was drawn up, a last second TD for the Over and Win! Pure Unicorn Magic!

Unicorn Dance

Week 9: 3-2

2015 ATS: 32-21-2

Week 9 results

Wk 9rev

What Went Right

  • Totals – All 3 wins this week were totals and even though a couple were really close and one a near miracle, the game flow for all of the games was pretty much what I had hoped for. The Rams Vikings game went under even though it opened as the lowest total of the week and the game went to OT.  Both those teams are built for unders week in week out.
  • Dumb Luck, Sort of– The Giants–Bucs game was unbelievably lucky to go over with that last play of the game but really that game should have had no problem getting over. There was over 700 yards of offense in this games and 8 redzone trips, the Bucs went 1-4 in the redzone and there were some killer drops, Mike Evans had 6 drops himself which was a record according to ESPN Stats & Info. The Drops, RZ FGs and turnovers that kept the score down much lower than the game flow would have indicated.

What Went Wrong

  • Betting against the Vikings– For the 3rd straight week I lost betting against the Vikings, who are now 7-1 ATS. Vikings continue to baffle, they are plus 28 in point differential and +22 ATS differential, so on average they are covering by about 3 points per game. In terms of efficiency they still rank low 24th overall in Weighted DVOA, 27th in Offensive DVOA but just keep covering.
  • Square Teaser of the Week: Both sides of the teaser lost but really it’s the Atlanta- SF side that is the lesson here. Atl had basically 80% of the bets and I’m sure there was no game used in teasers more than that one because you could get them down to 1. Atlanta was never in position to cover and did have a shot to take the lead late when they drove down to the SF 5 yard line down 4 but a terrible call to go for the FG instead of going for it ended those hopes.

What Did We Learn

Recent Trends Matter: We’re at appoint now where with 8/9 weeks in the books some of the teams look very different today than they did a month ago and definitely 2 months ago.  I will use last 3 game 4 game trends a little more and full season trends a little less.

Atlanta is a perfect example of why this is important, after starting the season 5-0 and 4-1 ATS their overall numbers are still very good but there has been a significant drop in their run game the last 3 games. Through 5 games they were averaging 4.4 yards per rush which provided a great balance to the passing game, on the season they are now at 4.1 yards per rush but over their last 3 games they averaging only 3.4 yards per rush which s 27th. They clearly haven’t been the same team the since their start and the huge drop in the run game has been why, the 3.4 in the last 3 games is more telling than the 4.1 overall.