After a red hot start, we have stalled the last 2 weeks and maybe as a result of that this week’s card looks pretty tight as well. It actually looked like we had a winning week late with the 49ers up in Arizona but after doing nothing all game we saw Rosen not only come down and score a TD but also complete the 2pt conversion and hand us our first losing week in a month.
Week 8: 2-3
Game 1: 6 Pt Teaser – KC -2.5 @ Cle & Pit +7 @ Bal
I know a lot of sharps are on Cle because of the coaching change and the idea that teams get a short term boost from coaching changes but I feel very confident in a matchup of Andy Reid vs Greg Williams. Yes Williams won a Superbowl but e also ad a stretch of 5 years where his teams were in the bottom 5 of Defensive DVOA.
Revenge game for the Steelers and one that puts them in positon to get control of the division. They have won 3 straight but against lesser competition so there is a little concern of just how much they have turned things around. The Ravens have lost 2 straight so they should be motivated but by teasing up to a TD I think the Steelers side is the right side.
Game 2: Det @ Min Under 48
Bet% Over 45% Under 55%
The last 5 times these teams have met the total has gone under and I think that trend continues. Dalvin Cook will be active for this game though we are not sure how big a role he will have, my guess would be limited. Over the last few weeks the Vikings have relied more and more on the run game with Latvious Murray and with Stefon Diggs out that should be even more the case this week.
Both offenses will be dealing with their first game without a key WR, Diggs is out for Vikings with injury and the Lions traded Golden Tate this week. Both teams are trying to rely more on the run and I think this game stays in low 40’s.
Game 3: Atl +2.5 @ Was
Bet% Atl 54% Was 46%
This game is really just about my opinion on Washington which is I don’t think they are built for the modern NFL. Washington excels at running the ball and stopping the run but most games are decided by the pass. This game will be all about the start, if Washington gets up early and can grind away then we are probably sunk. If Atlanta can get up early and make Washington open it up then I can’t see how Washington comes back.
Atlanta has been ravaged by injuries on defense but are coming off a bye and the hope is that they have some new ways to hide the holes on defense. Washington is also really banged up in this game especially on the offensive line and wide receiver.
Game 4: LAR @ NO Over 56.5
Bet% Over 72% Under 28%
I know this play is as square as it gets but I just see so many advantages in the passing game for both teams and the fact this game is being played inside a dome on turf I am more than happy to be square. The Rams get Cooper Kupp back in this game after missing 3 weeks and he really helps them keep drives moving as Goff’s security blanket. The Saints defense has one of the largest disparities between units as they rank 2nd vs the run but 29th vs the pass so I certainly expect Sean Mcvay to exploit them for big plays in pass game. The Rams defense is the opposite, 6th vs the pass and 25th vs the run so we will see a lot of Alvin Kamara in this game but the Rams clearly are not playing well in secondary because of injuries so Bees should have success there as well.