Week 8 Picks

Week 7 I felt lucky to get away 2-2 after starting the morning 0-2 and then needing a missed FG in the Dallas – Washington game. We have 5 games on the card this week including a couple of hold your nose plays.

 

Week 7: 2-2

2018: 21- 11

Game 1: 2 team Teaser: Cle @ Pit -2.5 & Den @ KC-2.5

This play is obviously as square as it gets but I am trying to cash in on KC and ride this wave and using them in a teaser feels like the safest way, we did it last week and didn’t have to sweat it for even 5 seconds.  This is a game that Broncos will need to keep up in and that is a lot to ask of Case Keenum who is 28th in Total QBR, Broncos only road win this year was last week in Arizona, this is a bit of a step up.

The Browns to me are one of the 2 or 3 worst coached teams in the league, they are coming off of an OT loss on the road last week in Tampa, a game they should have won about 3 times. I don’t see them keeping this with a TD.

Game 2: Was @ NYG +1.5 

Bet%: Was 71% NYG 29%

Here is one of the biggest hold your nose games on the card, why in the world would anyone want to bet the 1-6 Giants, especially after their much talked about loss on MNF where their play calling and game theory in the final 2 minutes became a national story?

I just feel like this is the perfect get right spot for the Giants. NYG had a very difficult 7 game  to start a season I can remember seeing and went 1-4 in 1 score games. Giants clearly have talent at the skill positions as good as anyone in the league, their issues are at QB and on the line. Washington is in the bottom 3rd in adjusted sack rate so this is a game where the Giants should have time.

Washington is 4-2 but having been on them the last 2 weeks the wins have been precarious. Last week Washington needed a fumble recovery TD and a missed FG to avoid OT with Dallas, the previous week Cam Newton missed a wide open McCaffrey in the end zone for a score that would have given the Panthers the win. Washington also has injuries in the secondary that Giants should be able to exploit here.

Game 3: NYJ +10 @ Chi

Bet% NYJ 44% Chi 56%

This is really just a bet on the number. This line opened at 7.5 got up 9.5 and 10 but has come down on most books to 9. As of Sunday morning there were still some 10’s out there. The thing with the Bears being favorites this big is I think I am getting the better QB here. Trubisky has been very lucky with intercept-able balls so far and has been playing very inefficiently. The Bears will be missing their #1 WR Allan Robinson in this game as he is officially out with injury

The Bears defense that started out a house on fire has been battling injuries, they are now 17th in defensive yards per play giving up 5.7 and in the last 3 it’s up to 6.2. Khalil Mack has been a question mark all week and if he does play he will be far below 100%.

Game 4: TB +4.5 @ Cin

Bet%: TB 29% Cin 71%

These are 2 of the worst defensive teams in the league, TB is 32 and the Bengals 27th in defensive DVOA so both QB’s should feel comfortable but in the passing game you have to give the Bucs the advantage in terms of skill players. This is also a bit of a sandwich game for the Bengals, they played on SNF vs the Chiefs last week and play the Saints in the Superdome next week.

This is also a game that has seen sharp money come in on the Bucs, the line opened at 4.5 and stayed there most of the week but has been bet down to 3.5 at most shops as of Sunday morning even though 70% of bets are on the Bengals.

Game 5: SF -1.5 @ Arz

Bet% 70% Arz 30%

These 2 teams played earlier in the year and the Cardinals got their only win of the season 28-18 but needed a 5-0 turnover margin to get the win. CJ Bethard has been better than expected since taking over and the 49ers have played tough in games against the Packers and Chargers. I just think at this point they are the better team and will take advantage of one of the few winnable games on their schedule. I have been surprised with the improvement of

wk 7

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