We are now officially rolling with another winning week and now +10 on the season. There will undoubtedly be a week where it all crashes coming down but for now lets enjoy.
Wk 6: 3 -1
2018: 19 -9
Game 1: Hou @ Jax -3.5
Bet% Hou 45% Jax 55%
This is my favourite play of the week though I am not sure if that actually means anything. We have 2 teams streaking in opp directions, the Texans have won 3 straight while the Jags have lost 2 but I see this as the perfect get right opponent for the Jags. Houston’s win streak started by beating the Colts in OT then Cowboys at home by a FG and finally needed a pick 6 vs Nathan Peterman to beat the Bills. One of the major issues the Texans have had is that Desaun Watson is getting hit a lot, Houston is 30th in pass protection which has lead to a series of nagging injuries for the QB.
The Jags had a total meltdown in Dallas last week but were better in their loss to KC the week prior so let’s chalk last week to a let down. This week is the perfect week for that Jags defense to get right, get pressure and maybe a couple of turnovers.
Game 2: Det @ Mia +3
Bet%: Det 48% Mia 52%
I think conventional wisdom is to bet against Brock Osweiler in this spot with him making his 2nd straight start, that’s fine but this is just too many points to favor Detroit on the road against a team I am not even sure they are better than. In fact so far this year in DVOA, Miami ranks 6th while Detroit is 30th so this line is all about the QB switch. I also just don’t know that their is a huge downgrade from Tanehill to Osweiler, maybe their is but I think under Adam Gase he knows how to tailor the offense around this QB’s short comings and I don’t think it is worth 3 or 4 points as this line seems to indicate. Finally Miami is just a hard place to play in October, it is still hot and humid and we saw Chicago last week get gassed late.
Game 3 : 2 team teaser 1) NE @ Chi +8 & 2 Cin @ KC pk
The Patriots Bears game has been the biggest pros vs public play of the game, I liked the Bears at +3 but after the news of Gronk being out this line is now between +1 and 2 so rather than play at that number I am going to use the Bears in a teaser. Bears are 4th in DVOA vs NE at 9, Bears are coming off a terrible loss while Patriots are coming off their biggest win of the year. You take away Gronk and this a perfect spot for Chicago to pull the upset.
Not much to say about KC at home on Sunday Night, normally this would be a little to chalky but coming off of a loss last week I think Andy Reid will be drilling into the team to not repeat last year where they started by winning first 5 then losing next 4.
Game 4 : Dal @ Was +1
Bet% Dal 40% Was 60%
This is a game that I liked all week but now am a little worries as it seems like the I am going against the line move and the sharps. This line opened Wash -1.5 which seemed cheap to me and has now moved to Dallas a 1 pt fav. I still like Was here, Dal played their best game of the year last week but I think that was more of the Jags having a meltdown then the Cowboys figuring things out. I think the big worry with Was is can they stop the run as they are 30th in DVOA but I thought they did a good enough job last week vs the Panthers but they key will be to get out to a good start and make Dallas pass. These NFC East games are always tight and the home teams usually have a nice advantage and I still think in the end Washington will end up the better team so I am on them here.