Week 14 Picks

EaglesI have had back to back losing weeks after going all year on a tear. Some of it was due to just regular randomness, we were in good position in a number of games like Detroit before having everything go wrong.

Philadelphia Eagles Lane Johnson GIF - PhiladelphiaEagles LaneJohnson GIFs

Week 13: 2-4

2018: 36-25-1

Game 1: Phi +3.5 @ Dal

Bet% Phi 41% Dal 59%

I am an Eagles fan and have not felt like the Eagles were the right side most of the year because the offense has been out of sync and not looked anything like last years version all year. Last week was the first time I thought the offense was on rhythm, Wentz missed a couple of easy throws that could have made the day even more impressive but I thought it was Doug Pederson’s best day of play calling and the offensive line looked as good as they have all year. This is the season for the Eagles and I like the fact that they have recovered after their debacle in New Orleans and worked around their injuries in secondary.

Dallas has become a very popular pick after their big win over the Saints but that seems like a weird game that we can kind of write off from the Saints side. I think Dallas is a very good defense but I don’t believe the passing game is a top half group and the Eagles should be able to have success vs the the Dallas line in the pass rush. This game is all about Zeke and the Dallas run game, but Eagles were in similar situation 2 weeks ago with Barkley and Giants and had good game plan to minimize the damage.

Game 2: Ind +4 @ Hou

Bet% Ind 42% Hou 58%

Houston has won 9 games in a row and I think I can make the case that they should have lost 4 or 5 of those including the first game with the Colts but they didn’t and here we are.  Football Outsiders has the Colts as the better team by weighted DVOA even with their disastrous game last week in Jacksonville.

Neither of these teams have played very good opposition in their last 5 weeks so it is hard to gauge just how good they are but I like the spot for the Colts and I also just think they are the better team. The first meeting went to OT and Colts basically gave the game away after not making a 4th down in their own end, I think they get the split here.

 

Game 3: Car pk @ Cle

Bet% Car 67% Cle 33%

I have been on the Panthers the last 2 weeks and watched them blow games they had no business losing. last week was all on Cam Newton, they moved the ball at will but its pretty much impossible to win wen your QB throws 4 interceptions. Even with that Panthers were driving late and had a 4th down play to keep the chance at OT alive when Cam missed a wide open Funches and finally ended it.

The Panthers are a much better team than the Browns and even in the midst of a 4 game losing streak something tells me this is a game where they come out an play well. Panthers are still 15th in Weighted DVOA and I think play their best when they can run the ball. The Browns are 9th in defensive DVOA but 26th vs the run, they are 4th vs the pass so this is a game where Panthers should be able to get in a rhythm.

Game 4: Same Game Teaser: TB +16.5 & TB-NO Under 61

So this is to me a correlated parlay, if the Bucs are in this game it is going to be lower scoring and I think that is the case. The Saints do not need to come in and air it out all over the field, there is expected to be some rain and I think this is a game that you see them use some ball control partly because this is kind of dead part of their schedule being the 2nd of 3 straight road games.

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