Our late season struggles continued with a 2-2 week and in Week 15 it feels like the card is smaller and tighter than anyone I can remember. The Struggle is real.
Week 14: 2-2
Game 1: Sea @ SF +4
Bet% Sea 73% SF 27%
Missed the best of this as it opened +6 but still going to jump on SF here. Seattle is now locked into a Wildcard spot with no chance at winning division on a 4 game winning streak but it is how they are winning that feels unsustainable to me. Last week Seattle won with just 60 yards passing, 2 weeks in the first matchup between these teams, SF outgained Seattle 452 to 331 but lost turnover battle 3-0.
This is also one of the biggest liabilities for books with 75% of money on Seattle while the number has dropped.
Game 2: Dal @ Ind -3
Bet% Dal 51% Ind 49%
To me this is just a situation were I think Dallas coming off of a couple of high profile wins is being over valued. The line makes these 2 teams even on a neutral field but I like the Clts quite a bit more and by weighted DVOA Colts are #10 and Dallas is #17. Dallas is coming off of what for all intent and purpose was a playoff game, which they won dramatically in OT. I don’t see them getting up big for this non conference road game.
Game 3: Miami +7.5 @ Min
Bet% Mia 45% Min 55%
This is just not a number that makes sense to me. Vikings are a .500 that has lost 2 of their last 3, fired their OC and are just 16th in DVOA 15th in weighted but they are a TD plus favorite? I don’t buy it. I also think that with the firing of DeFilipo the Vikings are going to run the ball a lot more and that is going to be a problem. The Vikings running game is 31st in DVOA, it one of the least efficient running games in the league so how do they cover this number by running more? I don’t see it.
Game 4: 2 team Teaser – TB @ Bal -2.5 & NE @ Pit +8.5
TB has played better the last few weeks but has been on the right side of turnover luck and going on the road vs the best defense in the league with the #30 run defense vs Lamar Jackson seems like a recipe for a loss.
Steelers and Pats always play tight games, I think there is a good chance Pittsburgh wins this game, they need it badly, they are at home and Pats are playing 2nd straight road game with division clinched and are pretty much locked into 2nd seed. I would bet Steelers alone at +2.5 but so many wonky things have happened in theses NE-PIT games that taking the extra points seems like the safest way to bet.
Game 5: NO @ Car +6.5
Bet% NO 61% Car 39%
I have bet on and lost 3 straight weeks with the Panthers but this is going to be too much value to pass up so unfortunately I will be on them again. Waiting until Monday to see if this line ticks up closer to 7,even at +7 -120 would be great.