Week 6 Picks

Partly because of the type of games on this week’s docket and partly because I didn’t feel good about a lot of the numbers, this week I break out some teasers. God help me.

Game 1: Chi @ Atl-3

Bet% Chi 47% Atl 53%

I was on the NYG vs Atl last week and while it was a bet that won, I knew I would be on the Falcons this week for 2 reasons. 1st after 2 straight road losses they are back home in the Georgia dome where Matt Ryan almost never loses, 2-0 at home this year and 40-10 for his career. 2 despite all the injuries on theor offensive line, the line actually held up really well the Falcons OLine held up much better last week than I thought they would giving up only 1 sack (they did give up 9 QB hits) against a very good Giants defense.

This week the Falcons play a lesser defense than they did last week, the Bears rank 16th in DVOA on defense but really have only played 1 elite passing offense so far the GB Packers but are still giving up 7.6 yards per pass (25th).  In that game Packers game Aaron Rodgers shredded the Bears(see below) and I expect Matt Ryan to have similar success

Rodgers 22/28 302 10.8 4 0

The Bears should also have success on offense, the Falcons are last in the league in defending the pass giving up 8 yards per attempt, and 30th in yards per play given up at 6.1 so I fully expect this to be a high scoring game. This game may very well come down to mistakes from the QB’s, in a game where both teams will need to score Cutler and  but also expect Jay Cutler to make more mistakes than Ryan who has yet to throw a INT at home.

Game 2: Car @ Cin-6.5

Bet% Car 37% Cin 63%

I was on the Bengals last week and was convinced they would come out and play a great game and handle the Patriots. I was wrong, really wrong.  I still think that Cin is one of the 3 best teams in the AFC along with Denver and San Diego, thing that separates the other teams from Cin is QB, Peyton and Rivers are elite QB’s and 2 of the best 3 or 4 playing right now. Andy Dalton is probably not in the top 15 meaning games like last week are always a possibility.

All that being said this is a good matchup for Dalton and the Bengals even with AJ Green out. The Panthers are ranked 27th on defense by DVOA but are especially poor against the run giving up a league worst 5.4 yards per rush, this should allow the Bengals to control the game with Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill provide Dalton with manageable  down and distance situations.

A lot has been made of Cam Newton’s lack of success but considering how banged up he is and how little help he has got from the run game his numbers have been pretty good. The Panthers are averaging 3.1 yards per rush (31st) meaning anything they get on offense is from the pass and the Ebgals are tied for 1st the pass in giving up 5.7 yards per attempt. Coming off of a loss the Bengals should be fully motivated, the loss of Green moved this line down from the opening 7 and I think getting them under the 7 is cheap here even without Green.

Game 3: SF-3/3.5 @ Stl

Bet% SF 80 Stl 20

*Have not bet this game yet will monitor hoping to get best price, moving between 3.5 +juice -3 -juice. will update actual number once bet.

So this is game where like last week’s Cin-NE game I will be against the Sharps who will take the home dog on a prime time game.  I know I made a bad bet last week but n this case I don’t think the situations are the same.  Last week we had a perennial division winner coming off a terrible loss and I was betting that they had finally fallen off while the Sharps thought they were still a good team in a great spot.  The were right I was wrong.  Nobody thinks the Rams are good team and outside of being home there is nothing noteworthy of this spot. The fact that this is a divison game om Monday night and that SF is 1 game back of Seattle makes me think they do not have a let down here.

By DVOA we have a mistmatch SF ranks 11 and 6th on defense while the Rams are 26th and 30th on defense. The 49ers are winners of their last 2 and have doe it by getting back to what they do best, running the ball. Through the first 3 weeks SF averaged just over 25 rushes per game, in the last 2 weeks they have run over 50% of their total plays (40/70 for  171yds  vs KC) and (42/76  for 218 vs Phi) which has taken a lot of pressure off of Kaepernick and their offensive line which struggled early. SF should have no problem running against the Rams who are giving up 4.9 yards per rush which is 28th in the league.

For the Rams, Austin Davis had his best game of the season last week throwing for 375 yards and 3 TDs, on the season he has completed 67% of his passes with 6TD’s and 3INT’s which is pretty good for his first 4 starts.  The difference in this game will be the quality of the competition he is facing, his first 4 opponents rank 14, 24,25 and 26th by defensive DVOA, the 49ers will be by far and away the best defense Davis has faced so far.

Game 4: GB @ Mia+3.5

Bet% GB 72% Mia 28

This is a game that isn’t much fun to bet, GB is clearly the better team, 3rd in DVOA vs the 22 ranked Mia.  The Packers can score and score easily, GB leads the league in Yards/point at an amazing 11.5, last year they were at 15.3, they are scoring TD’s on 72% of their redzone trips ad really haven’t got a lot out of their run game yet.

I am really betting this game based on the line move, the game opened GB -3.5 -105, the game has moved on most books down to -3 and there are even some -2.5 +juice out there.  I have to places I bet, one is very sharp and is one of the first movers, the line as of Saturday is Mia +3 -115 and appears to moving towards +2.5 or at least +3-120/-125.  The other book I use is a square book and will always shade the line towards the favorite, so because the are still offering the +3.5.  So his bet is really based on line move/line value.

The case you can make for Miami is this, they have played the pass well so far giving up a league low 5.7 yards per pass, they have also only given up 4.7 yards per/play which is also first.  The caveat to those numbers on defense is who they Miami has faced so far at QB (Brady, EJ Manual, Alex Smith and Derek Carr) none of which compare to the GB passing attack.

The other plus for Miami is GB is giving 4.6 yards per attempt (25th) while Miami is averaging 5 yards per rush on offense which is 5th highest in the league, if they can control the game on the ground and keep Rodgers off the field, that will give them an opportunity to win the game.

Game 5- 6Pt Teaser Det/Min under 49 & Cle &Pit over 40.5

I have traditionally been very poor at totals but in the last few weeks a few games have jumped out at me and they have gone basically the way I thought so I thought I would add a couple this week but give myself a little margin with the teaser.

Det/Min- Det is the #1 defense by DVOA and here they get a rookie QB making his 2nd start, his first was a good one against a terrible Falcons defense this game will be much different.  As for Lions, they are on the road, outside which usually slows them down, add that they without Calvin Johnson which completely changes their pass game and Reggie Bush and I expect them to try to grind out a low scoring win with their defense.

Game 6: 6Pt Teaser Cin-1, SD-1

Bengals write up above

San Diego maybe the most impressive team i the league so far, 5-0 ATS, #1 in yards per pass, #2 in yards per pass attempted.  The Raiders are the Raiders ad struggling in every category that the Chargers excel in.  If it wasn’t for the coaching change I would take SD-7 but there is a little uncertainty with Sporano in his first game so I will tease the Chargers down.

EDIT Adding Game 7 Jax +4.5

Looks like money is coming in on the Jaguars before kick off.  If the jags are going to find a win in the next month or so, this probably the spot. Titans Defense is one of the worst, Jags have new starter at RB who may help and are coming off their best effort last week.  The Jags are 0-5 ATS and in their disastrous season last year managed to win in Ten.

EDIT Adding Game 8 Wash +5.5

This game opened at -2.5 and then was off the board most of the week due to Cards QB situation.  Now on Sunday we get word that Carson Palmer is starting and the line is now at 5/5.5.  I’m taking Wash for 2 reasons, first I think its impossible to trust Palmer in this situation, he hasn’t played in a month, didn’t practice this week and was a game day decision. Hard to imagine he can come in and play at a high level or at least be rusty early in the game.

Secondly Calias Campbell the best run defender and the best pass rusher on the Cards is out this week.  Arizona’s defense has somehow anaged to play great football despit numerous injuries this season but at some point the injuries become too much. Also Arizona is great against the run tied for 2nd in league giving up only 3 yards per rush but 26th vs the pass giving up 7.6 yards per attempt and it should be worse without Campbell.

Washington coming off of a MNF loss vs the Seahawks where they played very well,  should be able to move the ball in the air vs Arz and have a legit shot at winning straight up.

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