Week 5 Review

Week 5: 4-2   Season ATS: 19-8

5 weeks in and no losing weeks so far. Oh Yeah!


Game 1: Hou +6.5 @Dal

Bet% Hou 35% @ Dal 65%

Score: Hou 17 Dal 20 OT

Bet Result: Win

Note: Dallas outgained Houston 456 to 330 and ran 20 more plays but Houston was able to hold Dallas to 4.2 Yards per rush below their season avg and win the turnover battle 1-3.

Game 2: Stl+7 @ Phi

Bet % Stl 27 Phi 63

Score Stl 28 Phi 34

Bet Result: Win

Note: In my thesis I thought Eagles were over rated due to D?ST TDs which were not repeatable but the Eagles amazingly added 2 more ST/D TDs in this game bringing their season total to 7.  Eagles were up 34-14 before the Rams scored 14 in the 4thQ to get the back door cover. Rams failed to get any sacks or any QB hits vs the Eagles struggling Oline.

Game 3: Pit -6 @ Jax

Bet% 78% 22%

This is obviously a very public play on the Steelers and that is always a concern but quite frankly I think the Jaguars are so bad that it is very difficult to put out a true line on them so far.  The Jags are 0-4 ATS they have been outscored by 84 points through 4 games and even vs the spread are -61. The Jags are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games, its hard to find a case where Jax should be getting less than 7 to a quality team like the Steelers even at home.

The Steelers having just lost to the 31st DVOA team TB  last week are not likely to get caught 2 weeks in a row by the league bottom feeders and I expect them to be able to score against the 32nd DVOA Jags quite easily, the Steelers are averaging 7.7 yards per pass and 6.4 per play.

The Jags did see more competent play on offense after switching to QB Blake Bortles but this teams biggest problems are on defense where they are giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt and a point for every 11.9 yards gained.

Game 4 Bal +3.5 @ Ind

Bet% Bal 37% Ind 63%

Score Bal 13 Ind 20

Bet Result: Loss

Note: Indy dominated this game running 80 plays for 422 yards vs 57 plays for 287 yards by the Ravens, the reason the game was close was the Colts had 4 turnovers and only scored 2Tds in 5RZ trips. Probably on the right side but ravens offense seems to be much more reliable at home.

Game 5 Atl @ NYG -4

Bet% Atl 44% NYG 56%

Score: Atl 20 NYG 30

Bet Result: Win

Note: This game was pretty even on the stat line but the Giants did lose 2 fumbles and the Falcons recovered 2 of their own fumbles which kept the score close through 3 quarters. That being said the Falcons make shift  OLine held up mostly, only giving up 1 sack though theu did give up 8 QB hits.

Game 6 Cin-1 @ NE

Bet% Cin 65% NE 35%

Score: Cin 17 NE 43

Bet Result: Loss

Note: No question the game I was most wrong on.  The Sharps were right, there was too much of an adjustment on NE after the KC game, and Cin coming off of a bye week 3-0 simply didnt play with anywhere near the urgency of the Pats.  Regardless of how talented the Bengals are, Andy Daulton will always be capable of sinking them with a poor performance which he seems to do more in big spots like this.

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