Week 7 brought my first losing week due to a dumb pick in Jacksonville and a dumber pick in Seattle
Week 7: 2-4
Season ATS: 25-16
Game 1: NYJ+10 @NE
Bet% NYJ 34 NE% 66
Score: NYJ 25 NE 27
Result: Win
Note: NE now is 0-5 in their last 5 games as a double digit fav. The Jets outgained NE by 100 yards, ran 27 more plays than the Patriots and had a time of possession advantage of 40mins to 20 mins. Jets had a chance to win this game straight up with late FG attempt but the cover was never in doubt.
Game 2 NYG+6.5 @ Dal
Bet% NYG 45 Dal 55
Score NYG 21 Dal 31
Result: Loss
Note: I thought this was a bounce back game for NYG and a let down game for Dal after their big win in Sea. Well NYG did bounce back and even though there wasn’t much of let down by Dal, the Giants wer in this game most of the way, in fact at half it was 14-14. The difference in this game was 2 Larry Donnell fumbles in the 4th Q one at his own 20 that leade to a TD and put the Cowboys up 14.
Game 3: NO @ Det Under 48
Bet% Over 39% Under 61%
Score NO23 Det 24
Result Win
Note: this game should not hav been as close as it was, through 3Q’s it was a stone cold under as only 27 Pts were scored. In the 4th we had some craziness including a 10 yard pass to Tate that went 73 yards for a TD, and a Brees INT at his own 29, up 6 with under 4 mins left which led to Det TD to win. Still getting a good number early ket this a win despite the late craziness.
Game 4: Cle -5.5 @ Jax
Bet% Cle65 Jax 35
Score: Cle 6 Jax 24
Note: Blake Bortles went 17/31 for 159 yds 1TD 3INTs. And won. Looking back this was a let down spot for Cle after their big win over divisional rival Pittsburgh and I should of seen that. Jax had played a cuple of close games and this was going to be as good a spot as there was to get their first win. Taking a team like Cle as a big road fav is a dumb bet, need to look at dog or stay away in these spots.
Game 5: Sea-6 @ Stl
Bet% Sea82% Stl28%
Score: Sea 26 Stl 28
Result: Loss
Note: Speaking of dumb bets, tis was the dumbest of the year. In reading my write up I tried not to sound like everyone else who bt it but it was clear my logic was the same, Seattle is awesome wnd were getting them cheap. Not only were over 80% of bets on Sea but the line dropped, 80% should be an automatic fade or stay away but the reverse move should be an automatic play on the dog and going forward it will be. This game showed why these games are so dangerous, as desperate as Seattle might have been, the Rams were 5 times more, their coaches were cashing for their jobs and pulled out every trick they had include that fake punt return which I have never seen before. These types of games take a real David vs Goliath feel, both sides know it, Goliath will invariably be a little over confident and David will try to pull every trick in their arsenal to compete. Need to learn from this game going forward
Game 6 Cin +3.5 @ Ind
Bet% Cin 23 Ind 77%
Score: Cin 0 Ind 27
Result: Loss
Note: Betting against Indy and on Cincy has been costly for me the last 3 weeks, this game was never a contest as Cincy couldn’t get anything to happen on offense. I wrote earlier how injuries to skill players are often over valued in the market in the short term, last week without AJ Green the Bengals still managed to score 37. The issue is whent hose injuries are for longer periods and when they are a part of a cluster of injuries. For the Bengals, if only AJ Green was out they should be able to survive that but they were already without Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert so the Green injury basically left the team with Sanu and nothing else. Important too look at the total injury picture when handicapping and I didn’t here. Also Indy is really good, their DLine much better than expected coming into the season allowing them t get pressure without their best pass rusher from last year Robert Mathis
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