Week 7: 2-4
Season ATS: 25-16
If there is a team that I think is flying most under the radar right now it’s the Detroit Lions and specifically their defense. I have bet the under with them the last few weeks and with them playing the early game in London I will be on the underrated Detroit side again. In honour of being from Detroit and underrated…
Game 1 Det-3.5@ Atl (In London)
Bet% Det 67 Atl33
This is listed as a home game for Atlanta but is about as far from a home game as you can be, the game will be in London England, at Wembley, outdoors and on grass. I think we’re at the point were home/road splits can be trusted and the Falcons playing outside of Atlanta hasn’t been pretty. Atl is 0-4 in games played outdoors including a 41-28 loss to the Minnesota Vikings.
This is a game that I think offers one of the biggest mismatches of the week, the injury riddled Falcons offensive line vs the Lions dominant DLine. The Lions continue to be the #1 ranked defense by DVOA and while the Falcons are the 9th ranked offense, not only was that ranking skewed by the 56 pt game vs TB on TNF, they simply have not been the same offense the since the injuries on the Oline popped up. In their first 4 games they averaged 32 points a a game but in their last 3 have only avgd 13. A big reason why the Falcons have struggled to score is they are 30th in the league in Redzone attempts on offense at 2/game, as it happens the Lions are one of the best teams at keeping offenses out of the RZ giving up only 2.5 trips per game which is 3rd in the league.
The Lions offense has also struggled without Calvin Johnson and he is expected to miss this game but against the 32 ranked DVOA defense they should be able to sustain some drives, also I expect their Defense to provide some short fields. I think this game can be a lot like the Ravens Falcons game a couple of weeks ago.
Game 2. STL @ KC-7
Bet% Stl 31% KC 69%
I hate giving up a full TD but this is a play I think make sense for a couple of reasons. The Rams are coming off of the biggest upset of the week beating the Seahawks but unlike the Cowboys last week, the Rams didn’t outplay the Seattle but one with some huge plays on special teams. The rams scored last week on a 90 yard punt return play that I have never seen before, they also had a 75 yard KR that set up their 1st TD and then clinched the win with a fake punt late in the game. Rams won by 2 points last week. I would say it’s almost impossible to repeat that type of special teams performance. Outside of those plays Sea outgained Stl 463-275 ran 20 more plays and averaged 6.8 yards per play vs the Rams. The Seahawks also had 86 yards in penalties compared to just 30 for the Rams. Essentially everything that could have gone right for the Rams did.
KC is currently only 3-3 but I think that record along with how bad that loss in week 1 to the Titans was, hides what a good team this is. Outside of the Titans loss, the other 2 KC losses were in Denver and in SF, both were games that the Chiefs played well and covered ATS. KC is the 9th ranked team by DVOA (Rams are 28th) and playing in a division with SD and Denver they know they cannot afford another slip up against a poor team the way they did in week 1 to the Titans.
Game 3 Mia @ Jax+7
Bet% Mia 77 Jax 23
Miami won a very impressive road game in Chicago last week and clearly the betting public was much more impressed with Dolphins win over Chicago than the Jags first win of the season last week over the Browns as 79% of bets have come in on the Dolphins. I feel like I played this game on the Dolphins side twice last week with the Browns and Seattle and was on the wrong side of both.
For Miami this game looks like a perfect let down spot, this is the second straight road game for them, they had a big road win @ Chicago and have a very big game next week vs the Chargers so it’s hard to see how they get up for this game. Miami has a pretty mediocre pass game averaging only 5.8 yards per pass (30th) but are very good on the ground avging 5 yards/rush. Run defense is the best part of the Jags D as they rank 12th in the league vs the run giving up 4 yards per attempt so this is a case where it could come down to the redzone. The Dolphins are very good at getting in the redzone with 4.4 attempts per game but only score TD’s on 54% of those possessions and the Jags have actually been very good in the redzone on defense giving up TD’s 40% of the time which is 2nd in the league.
While the Jags won last week they did so despite a terrible game from Blake Bortles where he threw 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 40.3 obviously a repeat performance like that and the Jags aren’t likely to stay in the game. Bortles played very well vs the Titans the week previous and the hope here is that he has a bounce aback game and is at least not awful.
Game 4: Min +2.5 @ TB
Bet% Min 40 TB 60
The Vikings are coming off of 3 straight losses vs very good defenses including GB and Det who rank #1 and #2 in opposing QB rating, the 3rd Buffalo ranked 4th. Teddy Bridgewater missed the Packers game which was a total debacle but the Vikings were competitive in the last 2 including a 1 point loss to the Bills last week. This week Vikings face the Bucs who are 32nd in opposing QB rating the worst defense they have faced since the Falcons who they beat 41-28 in fact the Falcons and TB are 31st and 32nd in pass yards per attempt given up.
TB the 32nd ranked DVOA team is coming off of their bye a week after getting blown out by the Ravens at home 48-17 in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Bucs rank 30th on both offense and defense and are 0-3 ATS at home so Im not sure that they deserve to be favored at home vs anyone.
Min has managed to continue to run the ball effectively even without Adrian Peterson averaging 4.6 yards per pass while TB gives up 4.1 (15th) so Min should be able to control the ball in this game. On Defense, the Vikings rank 22 by DVOA and have been especially good against the pass giving up 6.8 yards per pass (13th), they have also been good at limiting RZ attempts giving up 2./game(5th).
Game 5: Ind @ Pit+4.0
*Note will bet right before kick off to get best number
Bet% Ind 87 Pit 13%
I don’t want to bet this game, I do not want to bet against the Colts again who are 5-1 ATS and who I am 0-3 betting against and am convinced are a very good team. I do not want to bet on the Steelers who I think are at best mediocre. But 87% of bets are on the Colts here 87%!!! and just feel like you have to bet the other side here, the line under normal circumstances could go anywhere once its over 3 but it has held at 3.5 maybe ut gets to 4 but why not higher? would bets stop coming in at 4.5? I don’t think so. So I’m betting this even though I hate it.