Game 6: GB @ NO-2

Bet% GB 67 NO 33

Interesting line in this game, opened NO -1 and has moved to -2 -2.5 depending on book even though majority of bets are on GB and we know SNF games are the most heavily bet games of the week so there has to be real money on Saints.

Saints have been disappointing but have had one of the best home fields in the league the last number of years, on a SNF in a crucial game for their playoff hopes and Halloween around the corner this should be a wild crowd in New Orleans. It should be noted that even though they are 2-4, in 3 of those 4 losses they led the game in the 4th quarter, including last week in Detroit when a Brees interception late cost them the win. If they can clean up their play calling in the 4th that should help them get a win here. I actually thought the saints performacne in Detroit last week was their best of the season on offense when you consider the quality of competition. The Lions are the number 1 DVOA defense, and the Saints were able to move the ball especially in the air and despite 2 turnovers and an injured Jimmy Graham score 23 in Detroit.

One of the key differences between these 2 teams has been turnovers, GB is first in the league in TO margin at +9 while NO is 29th at -7,if we get some normalization of these then NO should be able come up with the win.