Week 8: 4-2
Season ATS 29-18
After the first losing week of the season in week 7, I’m Back Baby!
Game 1 Det-3.5@ Atl (In London)
Bet% Det 67 Atl33
Score: Det 22 Atl 21
Bet Result: Loss
Note: This game went exactly the way I thought it would, well at least in the 2nd half. The first was an absolute stunner as the Falcons got out to a 21-0 lead on drives of 80,56 and 89 yards. The Lions came back in the 2nd half and shut out the Falcons and almost had a miraculous cover in this game. The key to Atl covering was going 3-3 in RZ while Det only went 1-3. The Atl Oline also held up giving up only 2 sacks and 5 QB hits though I think most of that was in 2nd half when Det turned it on. Probably should of stayed on the under train with this game, as Det’s offense without Calvin is very inefficient. Not sure if the slow start for Det was due to travel/London but I do think 2nd half is more indicative of the Det defense than the 1st.
Game 2. STL @ KC-7
Bet% Stl 31% KC 69%
Score Stl: 7 KC 34
Bet Result: Win
Note: Not lot to comment here, Rams cming off of a monster win at home vs Sea travelled to KC managed to score first but then were dominated from there on in. The Chiefs were able to dominate the Rams OLine with 7 sacks & 14 QB hits which limited them to an amazing 3.6 yards per pass. Rams also lost Jake Long in this game which going forward makes them more vulnerable to teams with strong pass rush.
Game 3 Mia @ Jax+7
Bet% Mia 77 Jax 23
Score: Mia 27 Jax 13
Result: Loss
Note: Was hoping that Mia would have a let down after win in Chi and that Jaxcould stay close and maybe catch a break or 2. Well 2 out of 3 happened, Mia did have a letdown, Jax ran more plays and outgained Mia, Dolphins only passed for 178 yards in this game. The difference in this game was turnovers and points off of turnovers. The Jags had 3 T/O including 2 INT’s that were returned for TD’s. It is pretty rare to get 2 D/ST in 1 game and they make this win look a lot more impressive than it actually was. For the Jags, Bortles was awfulfor 2nd straight game and as long as he is turning it over at this rate, covers will be hard to come by. Something to watch for.
Game 4: Min +2.5 @ TB
Bet% Min 40 TB 60
Score: Min 19- TB6
Result: Win
Note: Low scoring game that the Vikings controlled and led for most of the game before giving up 13 points in the 4th and needed a FG with a 5 secs left in the game and then winning on a fumble return for TD. Min outgained TB by 100 yards and won the T/O battle, the result probably shouldn’t of been this close.
Game 5: Ind @ Pit+4.0
Bet% Ind 87 Pit 13%
Score: Ind 34 Pit 51
Result: Win
Note: This was the game that was the scariest to bet of the week but also the game that probably offered the most value. The Colts have been covering games week after week even through the lines are now being shaded towards them. Pit not only covered the 4 points but won this game big with Ben’s career game. I think the last couple of bets against the Colts have been the right side (Bal, Cin) but this one got extra value because of those covers. Long term overvalued teams can’t keep covering and even though the Colts are a very good team there will probably still be value on other side in next little while.
Game 6: GB @ NO-2
Bet% GB 67 NO 33
Score: GB 23 NO 44
Result: Win
Note: Coming into the week I thought that Cincy and NO were in very similar positions, both came in as divisional favorites but had struggled recently and were playing very good teams that were hot at home as short favorites. I didn’t pull the trigger on Cincy and regretted it instantly as I could see they were ready to play their best game in a big spot. I ended up adding NO and we saw a similar effort though I think the score is deceiving.
The Saints and Packers played virtually even when we look at the stats., 7.8 vs 7.6 yards/play on 63 to 65 total plays, 9.1 to 8.9 yards per pass and 25% TD/RZ attempts vs 33%. Coming into this game the big difference between these teams was the turnover margin, GB was +9 while NO was -5. We don’t normally see such a large correction in 1 game but in this one GB had 3 T/O while NO had just 1 and this really was the difference in the game.
Get the Cover 