Week 9: TNF Car+3

Game 1: NO @ Car +3

Bet% NO 62 Car 38

Not a lot to write here but I think the wrong team is favored so we are getting a lot of value with the full 3 and Car at home. I was on the Saints last week, who were in a must win game at home on SNF with that great  crowd and home advantage.  Even though the score in the NO – GB game was 44-23 the game was played basically even except NO won the turnover battle 3-1 which swung the game big in their favor.  Now on an extra short week, playing SNF and travelling to Carolina a poor road team is favored in a divisional game in a stadium they have struggled.

The Saints troubles on the road since last year are striking, in 2013 they went 1-7 ATS, 3-5 SU in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs, this year, the Saints are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.  The Saints trouble’s in Carolina have also been striking as they are 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU in their last 6 games in Carolina.

As for the Panthers they are coming off of a tough loss in Seattle where they played the wounded Super Bowl champs and lost a close one.  They like the Saints are also a much better team at home winning 9 of their last 12 both ATS and SU.

Maybe the Saints buck recent history and play well on the road but I cannot see how they should be a 3 point fav in a place they have traditionally struggled and both teams are playing for the division lead.

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