Like Week 2, Week 3 looked like it had a chance to be me much better as the Ravens, led late in the 4th Q, the Car NO game was under mid way through the 4th and the Rams were within 1 score of the Steelers throughout the game but in the end all 3 of those games went the wrong way. Nonetheless, the overall record continues to look good and I wouldn’t dare be sour about a winning week in betting the NFL
Week 3: 4-3
Season ATS: 12-7
Week 3 Results
What Went Right
Kirk Cousins on the road was typical Kirk Cousins – In my write up I thought this was a spot where we would see Bad Kirk Cousins and with 2 Ints and a QBR of 39.7 that’s exactly what we got. As expected Wash was able to shut down the NYG run game but Eli more than made up for it in the passing game avg 8.7 yards per attempt and 2 TDs as the Giants go their 1st win of the season.
Eagles D and ST – I had both the Eagles and the under this week and both bets cashed on the strength of the Eagles defense holding the Jets to only 17 points and coming up with big plays in crucial moments with takeaways in this game.
While they had a better day on the ground than the last few weeks, overall Eagles offense continued to struggle in this game with only 231 total yards, especially the pass game which averaged a paltry 3.7 yards per attempt. The Darren Sproles punt return TD was the biggest play of the game, without it it’s to hard to think the Eagles would have held on.
Adrian Peterson and Vikings Pass rush- The Chargers were 27th vs the rush giving up 4.7 yards per rush against players not named Adrian Peterson. AP went for 126 yards and 2 TDs on 20 carries to lead the Vikings. On defense the Vikings D line was dominant with 20 pressure plays (sacks, TFL and QB Hits)
What Went Wrong
Ravens Pass Defense: Coming in I thought that Daulton and his 120 passer rating was playing above his head, well against the Ravens he passed for 383 yards 3TDs and had a passer rating of 122. As desperate as the 0-2 ravens were supposed to be, they just couldn’t stop the Bengal passing game especially in the biggest moments.
The Rams Offense: This seemed like a great opportunity to take the Rams with such a high percentage of bets on the Steelers. I felt like the Rams D at home would be able to slow the Steelers down, which they did even when Big Ben was in the game but I also thought that Rams would be able to have success in the pass game vs the Steelers. While the Rams did avg 7 yards per pass attempt they just couldn’t stay on the field long enough to sustain drives. Rams were 2-10 on 3rd down and were only able to run 49 plays in the game.
The Saints D: In the Car -NO game, where I took the under it would be easy to blame the special teams TD the Saints got as the reason this bet lost but in actuality it was a bad one to start with because of the Saints pass D. In my write up I though both teams would focus on the run but the Saints came into this game dead last in opposition yards per pass attempt against and the panthers had a field day passing for 9.8 yards per attempt and also going 3-4 in the redzone.
What did we learn?
Betting 0-2 teams : In Week 3 we always hear about teams being desperate to avoid 0-3 which is basically a death wish in terms of making playoffs and it becomes a major reason to bet those 0-2 teams. Well this year we had 9 teams start 0-2, 2 of them Det and Sea played each other so we will leave them out of this for now, so that leaves 7 teams to look at.
0-2 teams went 4-3 straight up, Ind, Phi, Hou, NYG won, Bal, NO & Chi lost,ATS the 0-2 teams also went 4-3 with the Colts moving to the loss side and the Saints to the win.
If there is anything to take from playing 0-2 teams it might be to look at just the favored teams because if you are 0-2 and a dog, then it is likely that you are just a bad and not likely to be a playoff team anyways. So if we look at the 0-2 favorites they went 4-1 straight up (Ind, NYG, Hou & Sea vs Bal but again 3-2 ATS which isn’t quite as good