Author: sudhillon

Wildcard Weekend 2020

Week 17: 3-1

2020- 57-51-1

Game 1: 2 Team Teaser Ind @ Buf -0.5 & TB –2 @ Was

The first bet I placed on Monday was this teaser. With the Bills we are obviously not getting the best value on a teaser, we are only buying the 6 and 3 and the total is the 2nd highest on board but in a small slate I am ok passing up some value. This feels like a perfect matchup for the Bills, they get a an indoor team coming to play outside in the cold and with the way Buffalo is scoring I believe it will force the Colts to put this game more in the hands of Rivers than they would like and from that I think we see a turnover or two. The Bills had such an ugly playoff moment last year but this team feels totally different, they are #1 in weighted DVOA overall and 8th on defense, 4 spots higher than their full year grade. The Colts have feasted on such an easy schedule this year it is hard to know what to really make of them but I do feel confident that the Bills are going to score in this game as almost every good offensive opponent did vs the Colts and I am not convinced the Colts can keep up against an improving Bills defense.

Tampa offers the full value teaser goin through the 7,6 and 3 and are playing a team that is as one sided as any in the playoffs. I have no doubt that WFTs’ defense will cause problems for the Brady and the Bucs (see total pick below) but how does this Washington team score enough to win or keep it under a FG? Last week the Eagles a middling defense benched every veteran starter on defense besides Brandon Graham and Darius Slay and WFT couldn’t do anything. We don’t know what the situation is at QB, we just know it isn’t good. The Bucs may end up winning ugly in this game but I am confident they win.

Game 2: LAR @ SEA Under 43

This is the 3rd meeting between thee teams both meetings have gone under and I think that trend continues. In the end, what you are capping in this game is Pete Carrol and how he wants to play offense. In their first 7 games, Seattle scored 30+ five times and 27 in the other 2 games, that was the “Let Russ Cook” part of the season when the Seahawks were in top 5 in early down passing and one of the best offenses in football. In the last 9 games Seattle has reverted to the classic Seattle model of running on early downs and have hit 27 only twice and 4 of their last 5 games have gone under.

In this game, with the Rams QB position in flux but a very good defense I think Carroll takes his chance in a low volatility game, keep it close late and then let Russ win in the 4th, it worked a couple of weeks ago for the division and I think they play it the same way. I see a 20-17, 20-13 type game but there is no doubt if they decide to let Russ Cook this game could go over easily, that’s the bet we are making, who are the real Seahawks. I also like the under more if Goff starts, the

Game 3: TB @ WAS Under 45

The Bucs are coming in this game playing some of the best offense in the league finishing the season with 44,47,31 and 27 but those totals came against some of the worst defenses in the league, Detroit, Atlanta twice and Minnesota. When the Bucs have played quality defenses like the Rams, Saints and Giants they have had a much more difficult time, Brady has struggled against teams that pressure and that is certainly what he will face here in Washington. WFT finished 7 in adjusted sack rate, 3rd in defensive DVOA and 2nd vs the pass, this is going to be a matchup that TB will need to be very efficient against to score 30+. On the flip side it is hard to see how WFT scores in this game. Last week vs the Eagles, the Eagles benched every veteran starter of note on defense besides Brandon Graham and Darius Slay, the bulk of the secondary was 3rd team and practice squad players and against that competition WFT averaged 4 yards per play and 145 yards passing, they have not scored more than 20 the last 3 games, this is just not an offense that is playing well at all right now.

Game 4: Ten @ Bal -3 2H

Didn’t get a chance to post this live, I wanted Bal -3 all weekend, it got down to -112 which i should have taken but by Sat night it moved back -3.5 and I figured I would wait for live opportunity, which luckily did come up.

After seeing the surge in 2nd half, I was hoping the game would stay tied going into half with Ravens getting ball first and that exactly what happened and I was able to get Ravens -3 for 2nd half.

Game 5: Steelers Live

I don’t have any bets on Chi @ NO but will look for opportunities in the Steelers game where I think the impact of not having Stephanski will impact them more after the scripted plays and 2nd half. 8f Browns score early or are competitive at half I will be taking Steelers.

Week 17 2020 Picks

Week 16: 3-4

2020- 54-50-1

Game 1: NO @ Car +6

The Saints need the Packers to lose for this game to mean anything and are playing at the same time. COVID hit the Saints RB room and all of the RBs on the roster including Kamara and Murray will be out for this game, there is a chance we will see more by game time. Brees has relied on that running game to carry the offense since returning from injury and it is hard to see how they run away from a Panthers team that has covered big numbers all year.

I can see 2 ways the Panthers get the cover in this game, the first is the Saints struggle on offense without Kamara and Murray and the Panthers are able to stay in this game start to to finish. The second way is that the Packers lead the Bears all game and the Saints pull Brees and some of the other key players and the Panthers win or cover late as a result. Either way I think there is value in getting 6 here.

Game 2: Pit +10 @ Cle

The Steelers will have Roethlisberger and a number of other starters resting in this game but the Browns are in the midst of a Covid scare that last week cost them so many bodies they lost to the Jets. Now 7 days later they are favored by more points against the Steelers who while they will have a back up QB are a team that will feature mostly players who have contributed to a double digit win team. It would not surprise me at all to see Pittsburgh in this game with a chance to win.

Game 3: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser Atl @ TB -1 & Dal @ NYG +7.5

In this teaser we are taking the Bucs down to 1 and we need them to just win the game. These 2 teams played 2 weeks again and the Falcons got off to a great start and lead the game 17-0 at half and 24-7 in the 3rd before the Bucs came roaring back and scored 31 in the 2nd half. The Bucs know they can throw all over the Falcons and I think they get to it sooner in this game.

Money has poured in on the Cowboys this week vs the Giants but if you look at who Dallas has played the last 3 weeks ( Phi, SF and Cin) and the fact that they are +9 in turnover in those games, it would be hard not to look good. The Giants on the other hand have played a much tougher schedule as of late with the Ravens, Browns and Cardinals so no surprise they would 0-3 and have looked competitive. I like the Giants in this post to win but definitely like them to stay within a TD.

Game 4: Mia @ Buf -0.5 1st Half

I have been trying some different ways to play this but in the end the play I feel best about is taking Bills in the first half. I think there is a good chance that they let the starters play deep into the 2nd half but just in case they don’t, I think they come out and set the tone early in this game. The Dolphins are going back to start Tua in this game and even with the better defense I don’t see how they keep up with the Bills offense.

Week 16 2020 Picks

LW: 4-2-1

2020- 51-46-1

Game 1: SF @ Ari -4

Bet% SF 22% Ari 78%

The 49ers are starting CJ Bethard in this game and have injuries up and down the roster this week they will be without starting RB Raheem Mostert in addition to Deebo Samuel, though George Kittle may be coming back. In a lost season, having to finish off the season away from home, Kyle Shanahan said he would allow the team to go home for Christmas leaving very little time to prep for this game. This feels like a dead spot for a team trying to just get through 2020, Shanahan is somebody who does a great job game planning but at some point you need the horses and as square as it sounds it feels like he is waving the white flag here this week.

Arizona on the other hand is healthy, Kyler Murray had 8 rushes last week vs the Eagles which certainly indicates he is feeling better than he did for about a month when he hurt his shoulder. The Cards the last 2 weeks have seen a big uptake in their offense and I think it is because Murray is back to 100%. In this game I don’t see how SF keeps up, if they get down early do they fight back to keep it close? I’m not sure.

I bet this game early in week, would play at 6 or under but pass anything above that.

Game 2: Mia -2.5 @ LV

Bet% Mia 68% LV 32%

I like Miami here based on 2 factors, the first that in the AFC playoff picture we have one team playing to get in and one team that has now no chance of making it so you have to wonder how the Raiders react. Beyond the playoff motivation I think the LV situation at QB is interesting, it looks like Carr will start but you have to wonder if he is healthy or close to 100%. If Carr isn’t a full go or needs to come out I do not think you can expect the same type of Mariota performance as last week because one the Miami defense is much better than the Chargers and 2 now that Miami has seen Mariotta as a Raider the surprise element won’t be there.

Miami should also be healthier than they have been the last few weeks. Myles Gaskin will be back from the COVID list and they did not promote any receivers so I think it fair to expect either all or some of Gisicki, Devante Parker or Jakeem Grant will be back. Against this Raiders defense, if the Dolphins can get a couple of those receivers back I think they win by a TD+.

Game 3: Atl +11 @ KC

Bet% Atl 42% KC 58%

In the NFL teams that win straight up cover around 80% of the time which makes KC’s run the last month and a half quite remarkable. The Chiefs have not covered a game since Nov 1 but have lost straight up only one of those games. These numbers have to be this big because of course KC is capable of putting up basically any score they like and you wonder when that trend of not covering ends but Atl is too good of a team to pass up with this many points. The team that most closely resembles Atlanta that the Chiefs have played to me is Carolina, The Panthers were 10 point dogs and had a chance to win that game out right.

The Falcons are 4-10, have fired their coach and have been basically dead since October but they have played tough close games, they are 20th in DVOA and amazingly have a positive point differential at +2. For comparison, the Bears who are 7-7 are -3, the Raiders who are also 7-7 are -44. We compared the Falcons to the Panthers above, the Panthers are also 4-10 but have a point differential of -33,. This is all to say that week in week out the Falcons have played better than there record would indicate and this line provides value. The Chiefs will win of course but the Falcons should be able to stay in the game and keep it close.

Game 4: Cle @ NYJ +10

Bet% Cle 84% NYJ 16

The Jets won last week ending their winless run and it after getting killed for trying to win all week I like them to come back and play hard again this week. Even before the Rams game the Jets had been playing close competitive games, they were in 1 score games vs the Patriots, Chargers and Raiders and really should have won that Raiders game. The Browns are playing well right now, this is the most one sided bet on the slate this week with 80%+ on the Browns and because of it we are getting good value here at +10, this line should not be 10.

The Browns are on the best run of their season but this looks like a major flat spot for them. 2 weeks ago the Browns played on MNF in the game of the year vs division rival Baltimore, last week they Browns got flexed to another prime time game and had a 20-6 win on SNF. Next week the Browns play what could be a critical game in the division and AFC playoffs against division rival Pittsburgh, this Jets game is sitting there as a clear low spot. I also think that in looking at the matchup, the thing the Browns want to do is run the ball, they are #8 in DVOA and the offense starts with Chubb and Hunt. For the Jets, the thing they do best is, their best unit on the team is their run defense, The Jets rank 8th in DVOA in run defense and 8th in yards per rush against at 4.0. I like the Jets to kee this game within 1 score.

Game 5: LAR +115 @ SEA

Bet% LAR 42% SEA 58%

The Rams are coming off of their worst loss of the year and the worst loss of any team this season losing as a 17 point favorite but I thought the biggest takeaway from that game was Jared Goff’s comment after the game where he basically said this game didn’t matter, the game that mattered was Seattle. I’m willing to give the Rams a mulligan on last week’s game, they still rank higher in DVOA than Seattle #6 vs #9 and I think if we look at the last month they are still trending better than Seattle.

I was on Seattle last week against Washington, they had that game in complete control and then went super conservative and allowed WFT back into the game. The defense which seemed to be improved over the last month was being easily shred by Duane Haskins which can’t be a good sign. In the first meeting that Rams won, Goff passed for 300 yards in an efficient game, I expect McVay will be able to get the offense back on track this week. I took Rams ML at plus money, I think they win this game straight up, both offenses will have success but I trust the Rams defense much more and I also trust McVay more than Carrol to stay aggressive on offense.

Game 6: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Bears -1.5 @ Jac & Cin @ Hou -1

2 teasers this week, the first has the Bears and Texans, 2 favorites I took through 7 and 3. The Bears have looked much better on offense vs some bad defenses and the Jags should help continue that trend. After last week’s win by the Jets the Jags are now in position to pick #, they will be without James Robinson and we are not sure who is starting at QB. This should be a smash spot for the Bears, they are alive for the playoffs and this is a spot that even if they play poorly, they should be able to get the win.

The Bengals are coming off of their biggest win of the season and now go on the road in a short week and play against Desaun Watson. Going into last week, the Bengals offense minus Joe Burrow was historically bad and then they got 17 points off of turnovers as Rothlisberger played his worst half of his career. I don’t see the Bengals coming back and scoring enough to stay with the Texans in this game.

Game 7: 2 Team 6 Point Teaser: Ind @ Pit +7.5 & Buf -1 @ NE

The Steelers were the team downgraded the most by the bookmakers this week and went from a 3 point fav on the lookahead line to a small underdog at open. I fully expected this line to flip by game time because I believe the Steelers are still the better team in this game. I got them through the 3 and 7 for great value but I expect the loss last week was rock bottom and they win this game outright.

The second leg is the Bills on MNF, Bills will be on extra rest after playing last Saturday night, Stephon Gilmore is going to be out this game and it is hard to see how that Patriots defense holds up against this passing offense. Bills won the division last week but I expect they will still have something for the Patriots and wanting to slay the ghosts of seasons past.

Week 15 2020 Picks

LW: 6-2

2020- 47-44-1

Saturday Picks

Game 1: 2 Team- 6 Pt Teaser : Buf pk @ Den & NE +8.5 @ Mia

We start the card with the Bills on Saturday night @ Denver to win the game straight up. The Bills are coming off of their signature win and there is some concern about a letdown after the SNF win vs the Steelers but playing in a stand alone game on Saturday removes some of that risk as does the fact that Denver also is coming off of a big win. This should be a game that Buffalo wins even if they are not at their best because they are going to have a major mismatch in this game to exploit. The Bills are the #4 DVOA passing attack and the Broncos have the #20 pass defense but last week 2 cornerbacks Duke Dawson and Kevin Toliver both suffered season ending injuries and they are going to be dangerously thin in the secondary vs a loaded pass attack.

Injuries are also why I like the Patriots this week, New England has seen a lot of sharp action and one of the reasons has been that Miami is really banged up on offense. Gesicki, Parker, Gaski, Ahmed are all questionable for this week’s game, Gesicki is a big one as he has become Tua’s number 1 target. Miami with Tua has been relying heavily on turnovers and high impact plays from the defense and special teams and at some point that is not something you can count on. This is one of the lowest totals on the board and getting it through 3 and 7 with NE offers one of the best teaser spots on the board.

Game 2: Car +8.5 @ GB

Green Bay has the perfect formula for a team that is always open to give up back door covers, they have an offense that can call their own number and score as many as they want which draws bets and money and leads to very large numbers but their defense is so bad that the opponent can always score late and cover the number. The Panthers are a good team, 17th in DVOA and 9th on offense and for this game they are getting DJ Moore back, they are 7-6 ATS and have been great as a dog especially as a big dog.

I was on the Lions last week and that offense minus Goliday had way fewer weapons than this one and they still got to 24 points and got the late cover, the Panthers are better than Detroit on both offense and defense and we have the a larger number here because GB is at home. The Panthers are going to be able to score in his game and even if the Packers jump out big early Carolina is the type of team that plays to the end and will keep trying to score.

Game 3: Sea -4.5 @ Was

Bet% Sea 60 Was 40%

This was the first bet I made on Sunday night when the lines were posted. With the questions at QB it felt like there was no way this line wouldn’t at least go to 6 and maybe more if Haskins was starting and even if it was Smith at less than 100% it was going to move from the open price. Now with Haskins start I love my ticket and Seattle in this game. Washington has been getting a lot of credit for their defensive performances this year and they have been very good but here are the QB’s they have faced in the last 7 games N. Mullens, B. Rothlisberger , A. Dalton, J. Burrow, M. Stafford, A. Dalton, D. Jones. Not exactly a murderers row. Pittsburgh is the outlier and they get full marks for that win but we saw the Steelers in a bit of downward trend before that game. Russel Wilson and this offense will pose challenges to the Was secondary that most of those other teams can’t and with Haskins at QB I think Russ will get multiple opportunities.

The Seattle defense has been trending up as well and I think can get pressure in this game and create some mistakes from Haskins. It is clear that Alex Smith is a very popular teammate and I’m not sure Haskins endears the same kind of sentiment so there may be a little less juice from Washington in this game, especially if things go bad early.

Game 4: Phi @ Ari Over 48.5

The Eagles looked like a different team with Jalen Hurts at QB, not only did the offense transform to much more run based scheme but the rest of the players had much more energy and juice. There seems to be a feeling that last week the effectiveness was due to the surprise element of never seeing Hurts and that is now gone but I am not so sure. I think that the offense will be able to add on to what the scheme was last week and just pverall I think it takes a few games 3-4 to get a decent read on a QB and I like Hurst to have success in this game. The Eagles are also healthier at their skill positions than they have been in quite some time with both Goddard and Ertz playing, Sanders, Reagor and Alshon all healthy. I think the Eagles will score and I also think the style of play and the big play potential of Sanders, Hurts and Reagor could create some quick scores.

On the other side of this matchup it is hard to see how the Eagles defense holds up against Murray and the passing game. The Eagles have a dominant defensive line but if they don’t get pressure there is no way the secondary will hold up. The Eagles lost Rodney McLeod their most versatile defender for the season last week and will also be without Darius Slay who has been matched up with #1 WR’s all season leaving a rag tag group in that secondary. The Eagles have also struggled vs mobile QB’s, Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Russel Wilson, Taysom Hill all were able to get away from pressure and either create plays by running or scrambling and finding open receivers. I can certainly see the Cards getting over 30 pretty easily.

Game 5: KC -3 @ NO

Bet% KC 65% NO 35%

This is clearly the marquee game of the week and it feels like a sharp vs public split, normally I skip those types of games or ride along with the sharps but this is one that I think we are getting too much value on KC. The Saints are starting Drew Brees and while there have been few players more consistent than Brees, it is a lot to ask him to come and start in this game where you are going to have the pressure of knowing you need TDs. Brees will be doing so without his #1 target Michael Thomas who was put on IR this week.

The big case of the Saints is that they have an elite defense, we know KC has an elite passing offense and everything else is below average but for the Saints you have an elite offense and defense. The Saints defense was way below average to start the year and have been an elite defense since their bye but again let’s look at who they have played since the bye. The saints started with Teddy B and the Panthers then Nick Foles and the Bears, Nick Mullens and the 49ers, the struggling Falcons and Matt Ryan twice, Brady and the Bucs, the Broncos who had every QB in Covid protocol and started a practice squad WR, and then last week Jalen Hurts making his first start. Brady and Ryan are absolutely legit QBs but they have been hit and miss this year and there is no other offense that scares you in the rest of that group and certainly no offense that comes anywhere near the Chiefs. The Chiefs have been winning and not covering really big numbers but at 3 I think they break that streak this week.

Game 6: Pit -12.5 @ Cin

Bet% Pit 64% Cin 36%

This line for the Monday Nighter was at 12.5-13 all week and finally jumped to 14 last Saturday. Even at that number it feels short when we see the Rams as 17 point favs this week, Seattle as 17 point favs last week vs the Jets, to me this Bengals team minus Joe Burrow is in line with that Jets team. Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders this week mentioned that if you were to pro-rate the Bengals offense since losing Burrow over a full season that it would grade as the worst offense all time by their DVOA metric.

This is the ultimate get right spot for the Steelers who are coming off of 2 straight losses, the Bengals who are 29th in pass defense are not going to be able to matchup with the Steelers receivers and this should be just what the Steelers pass heavy offense needs to get back on track. The Steelers should also get plenty of short fields and extra opportunities on offense as I can see the Bengals puttuing up a bunch of 3 and outs. This should be over 14, anything under 14 is great value and I would bet the 14. I also think 7 even money for 1st half has value.

Late Add

Game 7: Hou +7.5 @ Ind

With Brandon Cooks back this feels like a decent enough spot to take the Texans. Last week they played terrible in Chicago but you had a cold weather game where Watson was missing Cooks and David Johnson, both of whom are back this week. The question is can the Texans defense hold on against a Colts offense that has been much better the last month. In the game these 2 teams played a few weeks ago, Colts jumped out to big lead and Watson brought Houston back and was at the Colts 10 down 3 ready to win before fumbling game away. After last week’s game I think Texans show up.

Week 14 2020 Picks

LW: 5-4

2020- 41-42-1

Game 1: GB @ Det +8

The Lions won a game last week that they probably should have lost but what was clear is that hte team was playing with a lot more effort and freeness with Darell Bevel as their coach than they did for Matt Patricia. This game has a huge mismatch with the Packers #2 DVOA offense vs the Lions #32 DVOA defense but I am going to lean on 2 things, first despite the injuries the hope is that with Patricia gone we see the Lions defense have a bit of an uptick here. What I am really hoping for here is we see the Packers kind of go through the motions and play to the competeition the way they did against the Vikings, the Jags and even last week vs the Eagles.

I like the Lions offense having success here, the Packers have struggled on defense and last week was the best Stafford has looked all year, I am hoping that continues and we see the Lions jump out ahead and hen hold on when the inevitable Packers run comes.

Game 2: Min +7.5 @ TB

Bet% Min 42% TB 58%

This line was at 6.5 all week and jumped to 7 and even some 7.5’s. I was waiting for the 7 but now will see if I can get a cheaper 7.5 before making my bet. This just feels like too many points for the Bucs, the Bucs have lost 3 of their last 4 and really outside of their wins over the Packers and Raiders they have not had another impressive win on their schedule. TB is still ranked 3rd in DVOA and 4th in Weighted, the Vikings are 15th in DVOA so about the league average, I just have a hard time believing that the Bucs right now are a TD better than a league average team. We also have the fact that the Bucs receivers Goodwin and Evans are still battling nagging injuries and the offense just hasn’t looked in synch really since the Packers game and is facing a much improving Vikings defense. The Vikings have played down to their competition the last few weeks but after starting the year 1-5 Minnesota has won 5 of their last 6 and are in the playoff hunt so this is a big game for them and I think their offense is a good matchup vs the Bucs. I think the Vikings are going to be in this game the whole way through and will have a decent shot to win straight up, this is great value at this price.

Games 3,4 & 5 are all 2 Team 6 Point Teasers

Game 3: KC -1.5 @ Mia & Hou @ Chi +8

I am using the Chiefs in 2 teasers and may add to another one as well. I get how tough Miami has been this year but so many of their games have benefited from scores on defense and special teams, I just do not see how you can reasonably expect Tua to keep up to the Chiefs in this game with no run game unless we expect Mahomes to throw a couple of interceptions and give Miami a very short field. With the Steelers losing last week and an underdog again this week the Chiefs have the #1 seed within their grasp again and I don’t see them losing in this spot. The other thing that I think is worth mentioning is that as good as a job as Brian Flores has done with his defense, Andy Reid has traditionally had a lot of success vs the Belichick and company defenses.

The Bears and Houston game is going to be an interesting one. Last week the Texans played the Colts came back from a double digit deficit had the game won before fumbling at the Colts 10. This week they now have to go to play in the cold and windy midwest, the Bears defense has definitely taken a step back but playing against the Texans offense minus Fuller, Minus Cobb and this week minus David Johnson, I can see them having a good game vs Watson. On offense the Bears have looked better the last few weeks with Trubusly taking over and the run game has been much more productive with Montgomery. The Houston defense ranks 27th in DVOA, the Bears offense has the same rank of 27th but I would say the Bears arrows are probably headed up while the Texans defense is going down. At home, on grass in the cold I like the Bears to win this game or at least keep it very close.

Game 4: KC -1.5 @ Mia & Ind @ LV +9

The second teaser I am using the Chiefs with is the Raiders. This line opened at 2.5 and I had decided to play the Raiders but it was clear this was going to 3 and at that point I had to decide do I want to just take LV +3 or use them in a teaser which by definition is less value because we are not taking it through the 3 anymore and now getting a less valuable 9. I am going to stay with the teaser and what I will probably do is add a small bet on the Raiders ML. I think the Raiders are going to score in this game, the Colts defense is still in the top 10 but we have seen good offenses move the ball against them and just not be super efficient in the redzone. The Raiders have been much better at hoe and I think have a good shot at winning this game but getting them over the TD feels like a really good teaser spot.

Game 5: Ten -1.5 @ Jac & Atl @ LAC +8.5

Taking the Titans down to basically just win vs the Jaguars, the Jags have been playing better with Glennon at QB but in this case I don’t know that they are going to be able to have the firepower to stay in this game with the Titans. Derek Henry has feasted on the Jags and games the Titans get in trouble are the ones where they go run heavy vs teams that can stop the run, The Jags have never been able to stop Henry so I feel good about taking them down under the FG.

The Chargers are the team coming off of the worse loss of the week, nobody is going to want to take them this week and it feels like the perfect bounce back spot against the Falcons. I love when we get home teams at +2 because with the teaser we get them through the TD and there is probably a 4-45% chance they win straight up.

Game 6: NYJ @ Sea Under 47

I was on the under last week with Seattle and I think again this line is too high for a Seattle game they should control because it seems like we are seeing them revert to their old style of play and pace and the let Russ cook era seems to be over. Seattle scored at least 30 in 7 of their first 8 games but now has only hit 30 once in their last 5 games. Not only has the Seattle offense reverted but the defense has started to play much better, in their last 4 games the Seahawks are giving up 16.5 PPG and this Jets offense is not one that should scare them. In the end I think Seattle can play this game anyway they want but coming off of a bad loss to the Giants I can see Caroll taking the air out of the ball and just grinding out a 20-6 win.

Game 7: Ari – 2.5 @ NYG

This game feels like one where everyone is now on the Giants, they are the favorites to win the NFC East, the defense has been very good and there is definitely a narrative building around them. To me this feels like buying the Giants at there absolute high and selling the Arizona at their absolute low. Despite the Giants winning their last 4 they are still only 24th in DVOA both overall and weighted. Arizona has lost 3 in a row and 4 of their last 5 but are still 13th in DVOA. The Giants win over Seattle was there first over a winning team, previous to that they had beat the Bengals, the Eagles and Washington twice. New York is going to have to prove it to me again, last week was great but a lot went wrong for Seattle and I am not convinced that they can pull it off again in back to back weeks.

Game 8: Bal -2.5 @ Cle

The Browns are coming off of their best performance of the year while the Ravens had a pretty unimpressive 17 point win over the Cowboys on Tuesday. The Ravens have owned the Browns the last couple of years and even though the Browns have had a much better year this year the matchup issues still remain. The Browns have been a team that you can have success running against, overall they are 19th vs the run, last week they played very well vs the Titans in a game they dominated off the start but over the last 3 weeks they have given up 4.4 yards per rush att. The Ravens seem to be getting their offense going the right way and this could be a get right spot for them. the other reason the Ravens have dominated this matchup is that defensively they matchup very well vs this Browns team. The Ravens are #4 vs the run and the Browns set everything up through the run, this should be even a bigger issue for Cleveland as they are missing their best offensive lineman Wyat Teller is injured and is likely to miss this game. I also think that the Ravens can see this game as the tipping point to their season, if they were to win this game then they finish the season with the Jags, Giants and Bengals, a sweep of those games gets them to 11 wins and a serious contender for the AFC.

Week 13 2020 Picks

LW: 3-3

2020- 36-38-1

Game 1: Det +3 @ Chi

Bet% Det 51% Chi 49%

It’s not often we have a team that has lost 5 in a row and a prime time blowout (41-25 SNF vs GB) be a 3 point favorite. The Lions are also coming off of there own national tv 41-25 loss so I am not making a case that they are some great team either. Where I see the advantage is we have the Lions coming off of extra rest and the firing of an extremely unpopular and unsuccessful coach vs the Bears who are coming off of a short week and then had their unpopular coach throw their team under the buss.  

The Lions will once again be without Golliday and Swift but the Bears will probably be without Akeem Hicks and Allan Robinson was limited all week with a knee injury so I’m not too worried about the injury issues in Detroit.  In the end I just don’t see many teams that you can make the Bears 3 point favorites over with Mitch Trubisky at QB and with the schedule advantage and boost of no Patricia, I think Lions have a good shot of winning straight up.

Game 2: Ind @ Hou Under 51

When the Will Fuller suspension news came out the question for me was what is the better bet the total or the side. I may still add the side but my bet was on the under here. For the Texans the loss of Fuller is huge for Watson, the splits with Fuller and without have always been an important factor in the success of the offense and if you look at the depth of the offense now you have Cooks as WR1, Coutee as WR2 and beyond that there is not much in terms of know quantities as they cut Kenny Stills and put Randall Cobb on IR. The TExans should get Dvid Johnson back which may mean more runs and more short passes. T

The Colts defense which is 8th in DVOA is coming off 2 of their worst games  of the season vs the Packers and then Titans, will have a great situation in this game with Houston being so shorthanded and I fully expect them to bounce back. On offense the Colts have not been explosive in any way, 17th in offensive DVOA, they will be getting Jonathon Taylor back and we have seen a very RB focused offense for Rivers and especially after the last 2 weeks I can see them trying to slow the game down.

Game 3: LV -7.5 @ NYJ

Bet% LV 65% NYJ 35%

This just feels like the perfect bounce back stop for the Raiders. 2 weeks ago the Raiders played a great game on national TV vs the Chiefs and lost on the final drive. Last week the Raiders played a game where literally everything went wrong, I was on Atl last week because it seemed like such a down spot for LV but even as a Falcons better last week was way more than anyone could have expected. the Raiders turned it over 5 times, went 0-2 in the redzone and committed 11 penalties for 141 yards. It is hard for an above 500 team to play a worse game. Well if you want a get right spot the 0-11 Jets are it. By DVOA the Jets are 31 on offense, 27th on defense and 28th on special teams, they are basically at the bottom of the league in everything. Really the weeks the Jets have covered have been when the opposition was in a bad schedule spot but with the Raiders coming off of their worst game of the year, I don’t think that fits here which is why I love the Raiders and see them winning by double digits.

Game 4: 2 team 6 point Teaser LV -1.5 & NE +7.5

See above for the LV case but I was really hoping to tie the Raiders into a few teasers when his line was 8 or under but unfortunately on this card there just aren’t a lot of games that are available for the second leg.  The move in this Patriots game from the Pats being favored to the Chargers allows for a nice 2nd leg. On paper there is no question that the Chargers are the more talented team and the team that should be favored but I can’t imagine a larger coaching mismatch than Belichick vs Anthony Lynn. There is no team that has mismanaged end of game situations more than the Chargers and even if the Chargers jump out ahead I like the chances of Belichick getting his team back into it late and staying within a TD.

Game 5: NE @ LAC Over 47

As you see above I expect a close game but I do think we are going to see a lot of offense. The Patriots are only 4-7 to the over but I think this game fits perfectly for a high scoring game. On defense the Patriots are 31st on defense and equally bad vs the pass and run (30th,28th) so he Chargers should be able to get whatever they want with their #12 offense. The big question for this over is going to be the NE offense vs the Chargers defense, the Patriots rank 21st overall, they are a lowly 27th passing offense but 4th best run offense and for the Chargers they are 31st vs the run. That is where I think New England will have a lot of success and if they can run well the rest of their offense should open up as well, I also think it will lead to efficiency in the endzone. I can see this game ending something like 27-24, 30-24 something like that but I see both teams being at least in the mid 20’s.

Game 6: LAR -2.5 @ Ari

Bet% LAR 52% Ari 48%

THis is a part of the the NFC West story where every team has a team they own, last week the Rams played the team that owns them in SF, Shanahan seems to have every answer to McVay’s offense. For McVay there is no team he is better against than the Cardinals, the Rams have won their last 6 games vs Arizona and have covered in every one of them. I love that we are getting the Rams off of their terrible performance last week against the 49ers because had they won that game this line would be 3.5.

On the field I think we can see how the Rams defense has great matchups vs the Cardinals, we have Ramsey vs Hopkins and inside we have Aaron Donald inside against a poor offensive line. The other thing that I think is an issue in this game is Murray seems to be hurt, there is a shoulder issue which has been much talked about but I think the impact has not been. With a shoulder injury I think we would look at deep passing or something like that but where we have seen the impact is in the running game. In the last 2 weeks, Murray has rushed just 5 times each game for a combined 46 yards, previous to these 2 games he only had 2 games this season of rushing under 46 yards. Love the Rams in this spot.

Game 7: NYG @ Sea Under 47

This may seem super square but we have the Giants either missing their starting Qb or having him play way below 100%, this is for a bottom 7 offense. The Giants have had totals go under 7 times this season with 3 games to the over not just because their offense is bad but because the defense has been playing very well most of the year. The Giants are giving up 23 ppg which ranks 9th and are 14th in yards per play given up and 15th in adjusted sack rate.

The Seahawks have been one of the best offenses in the league this year as they finally let Russ cook but it does seem like Russ has been cooking less and less the last few weeks. In the last 2 weeks Wilson has had his lowest number of attempted passes 28 and 31 and has not crossed 250 yards passing the last 3 weeks. With a healthy RB game with Carson and Hyde and a game that should not be a close contest this does feel like throwback Pete Carol game where they run on early downs and then ask Russ to be super efficient rather than trying to get into a shootout.

Game 8: 2 Team 6 point teaser LV -0.5 & Pit -1

Adding a 2nd teaser to LV, again the Raiders is probably my favorite side this week and I think the best teaser leg.

The WFT – Pit line has seen 1 way action on Washington from 9 all the way to 7, i can get with that move but I don’t think we will see them win straight up so I’ll take Steelers in a spot to just win. If I get 9nfo on other side, can hedge with WFT ML on Monday.

Game 9: Phi +9 @ GB

Late add: Betting the Eagles again because I am masochist that likes setting money on fire. Good luck

Week 12 2020

LW: 7-1

2020- 33-35-1

After a season full of tough week after tough week, this was me on Sunday night.

Happy Black Girl GIF

Thanksgiving Thursday

Game 1: Hou @ Det Under 51.5

Bet% Over 60% Under 40%

Houston is very much an over team but some of the high scores they have had because they fell behind big and had to chase the game but that shouldn’t be the case here vs the Lions. They are also extremely one dimensional right now as Duke Johnson hasn’t been able to give them much so this should be a spot the Lions can gameplan pretty easily.

In the end this under is all about the Lions and what this offense looks like without Kenny Golliday. Last week the Lions were shutout by a very bad defense in Carolina, they scored 27 vs Washington but other than that game they only scored 20 vs the Vikings and 21 vs the Colts. Add to that the thumb injury Stafford is dealing with and the fact that Deandre Swift is also questionable and I think Detroit will do everything they can to slow this game down and keep it from becoming a shoot out.

Game 2: LAC @ Buf over 52.5

This is a bet that the Chargers game plan we saw last week is the one they continue with. Last week the Chargers passed on 70% of downs in neutral-situation plays and 68% of early downs. Anthony Lynn has been talking up Justin Herbert and it would make sense for him to tie himself to Herbert playing well as a way of making the case to stay on as head coach next week. The Chargers ran 78 plays last week which is exactly what we want to see for an over, they also gave up 28 points to the NY Jets and Joe Flacco.

The Bills pass at the 8th highest rate in neutral situation plays and after struggling on offense for a few weeks the last 2 games the Bills have scored 30 and 44. Coming off of a bye and that incredible loss on the hail mary to the Cards, this is a game the Bills are going to need and I don’t think they can count on the defense so I do see them looking to win with the passing game. The only thing that could keep this game under is weather but as of now that doesn’t seem to be an issue.

Game 3: Cle @ Jac Over 49

The average game total for an NFL game in 2020 is 49 so when you get a game open at that number it is a easy question of is this game likely to be higher scoring than the average game or lower. I think this number opened here because the Browns have played 3 straight low scoring games with totals of 22, 17 and 39 but all 3 of those games in Cleveland were severely impacted by weather. The passing games in those 3 games were severely limited by wind and rain and as a result we saw extremely low scores. In the 4 games played before that weather aided homestand, the Browns gave up 24,38, 32, 38 and once again this week they will be without there best player Myles Garret. On offense getting Nick Chubb back was big for them last week and this offense should have a much better time passing vs the Jags 30th ranked pass defense.

The Jags offensive situation is murkier, Mike Glennon is starting at QB, I don’t think it’s possible to downgrade from Luton. Last week vs the Steelers the Jags only scored 3 points but that was almost entirely because of how bad Luton, previous to that the Jags scored 20 vs the Packers, 25 vs the Texans and 29 vs the Chargers. The Jags will be missing Chark jr but I still think they are going to be able to score in this game against a defense that was giving up points to everyone before the rain and wind gods intervened.

Game 4: 2 team 6pt Teaser NE +8.5 & GB -8.5

Both of these lines are moving in my favor giving this teaser more value.

Arizona is flying across country to play the Patriots and earlier in the week Murray was limited in practice due to the shoulder injury he suffered last week. The Cardinals are a team that doesn’t really blow teams out, the nature of their games, the fact the defense doesn’t get a lot of pressure and that they are a run dominant offense makes for a lot of close games. In their last 4 games, the Cards went 2-2 vs Seattle, Miami, Buffalo and Seattle and the games were decided by 3,3,2 and 7. This is also a sandwich spot for Arizona, last week they played Seattle in a huge divsion game and next week they play the Rams. The Patriots seem to have their run game going the last couple of weeks and as a result the offense has gotten better. I don;t feel comfortable taking them with such a short line but think they can keep this game within the TD.

The Bears-Packers game has moved from 8.5 to 9.5 due to the QB news luckily I was able to get in before that move. The Packers should be able to win this game by a FG but if NE covers the first part and this line goes to 10 I will take the Bears and try to hit the middle and win both sides. If it stays here then the decision will be harder.

Game 5: LV @ Atl +3.5 (-113)

This is the contrarian play of the week, the Raiders played one of the most impressive games of the week last week on national tv while the Falcons played a terrible game vs Taysom Hill and the Saints. Every TV expert and every average bettor is going to be on the Raiders this week because this line looks too short for a team on the rise that just played 2 great games vs the Chiefs vs a team heading the wrong way.

For the Falcons, even though this season has not gone the way they would have wanted, previous to their bye they had won 3 of 4 games and the one loss was that crazy finish vs the Lions where Gurley scored when he should have gone down and the Lions scored with no time on the clock.

This just feels like the exact spot for an upset and I can certainly see the Falcons win this game straight up

Game 6: 2 Team Teaser Mia -1 @ NYJ & SF @ LAR -.5

I didn’t love the Miami side early in the week with Tua at QB but now with Fitzpatrick listed as the starter, I really like taking them in this teaser. Miami was a much more productive offense with Fitzpatrick at QB than they have been the last 3 weeks under Tua. I also like the fact that Miami lost last weekend in a game they were favored on the road. They had won 2 or 3 games they probably didn’t deserve and were due for a game that went the other way, The fact that we get Miami off of that game plus the QB change, I don’t see them losing this game to the Jets.

The Rams are coming off of one of their best wins of the year on MNF but also a short week as a result while the 49ers are off of a bye. The 49ers beat the Rams in the first game that seemed like an all in spot and while they ay stick around in this game I don’t see how they put up enough points to win against the #7 defense by DVOA this time. Losing to the 49ers twice in this division would be malpractice so I feel confident McVay doesn’t get beat twice by an inferior Shanahan team this year.

Week 11 Picks

LW: 2-5-1

2020- 26-34-1

TNF: Ari @ Sea -3

Last week I had planned to bet the Rams all week and ended up taking it off the card right at the end because that is just how this 2020 season has gone for me but the reason I liked them was that Seattle had just been criss crossing all over the country. This week they are back home after playing in LA, coming off of 3 straight losses, this is exactly the type of spot you want to back Russell Wilson.

Arizona on the other hand is coming off of a miracle win against the Bills after losing in Miami the week previous. These 2 teams played 2 weeks ago and the Seahawks were 3.5 pt favs in Arizona, now they are smaller favs at home. These 2 teams are pretty closely matched up but I think we are getting Seattle at their lowest spot we have had all year, home teams traditionally have done well at home and I think we see that again this week.

Game 2: 2 Team Teaser: GB +8.5 @ Ind & NE @ Hou + 8.5

The Packers are coming off of a very tough performance vs the Jags last week but weather played a major factor in that game and as a result I think this line is bigger than it should be. In this game the Packers will be bringing their #2 offense indoors on the turf and they will be fully healthy with all 3 WRs healthy, Aaron Jones back and David Bakhtiari back to 100%. The COlts are 4th in defensive DVOA and held up well vs the #3 Titans but the Titans offense has been on a slide and has not been anywhere near as explosive as GB. I think Packers have good shot of winning this game outright but taking them through the 3 and 7 is too good to pass up.

Adding Houston to this teaser is just taking advantage of a bad number. The Patriots should not be favored, last week they won straight up as 7 point dogs vs the Ravens in a game that had extreme weather and basically everything went wrong for Baltimore. As awful as this season has been for Houston they still have the best unit in this game with their offense and should not be 2 point dogs. Again getting chance to take them through the 3 and 7 too good to pass up.

Game 3: 2 team 6 point teaser: Phi +8.5 @ Cle & Pit -4.5 @ Jax

It’s hard to put money on the Eagles after last week but it is clear that money has come in on the Eagles because this line has moved from 3.5 to 2.5, moving through the key number of 3. Last week I liked Eagles partly because their offensive line was finally getting healthy and then at kickoff it was announced that both expected starters at guard were out. This week the Eagles should have that offensive line we expected and generally this team has bounced back after really bad games under Doug Pederson. We saw that in the SF game in week 3 and I can see it again here.

I will likely be taking the Steelers side as this line should be closer to 13 than 10. The Jags were in it last week vs the Packers but got lucky with the weather and really the score didn’t reflect the play. The Packers outgained the Jags 395 to 260, GB averaged 9 yards per pass and if it wasn’t for a big special teams TD the Packers would have won by double digits even in those terrible conditions. The Steelers are better than the Packers and the conditions should be much better than last week, I don’t see how the Jags keep this close. While not as valuable teasing through 7 and 3, teasing through 10 and 7.

Game 4: Mia @ Den Under 46

Miami is averaging 30 ppg over the last 3 since Tua took over at QB and I think that is why this total is as high it is. Those scores have been greatly enhanced by 2 defensive TDs and a score set up by a blocked punt last week deep in Chargers territory. while I think the Dolphins offense is being overrated their defense deserves all of the credit they are getting. Now up to 13th in DVOA the Miami defense has been full marks for their recent winning streak and I expect them to be dominant this week vs the Bronco’s last placed offense. The Broncos after the 4 interception game by Drew Lock is probably coming in with a much more conservative game plan so I can see a slowed down pace and lot’s of running.

Game 5: Dal +7 @ Min

Bet% 48% 52%

I am following the money a bit here, this game opened up at 9 and even though tickets have been split basically 50/50 this game has dropped all the way to 7. Dallas is coming off of a bye and getting Andy Daulton back so this seems like a very good spot for Dallas to be competitive. Dallas played their best game since the Prescott injury before the bye vs the Steelers and the hope here is that coming out of the bye they again come with a game plan that takes some risks and the defense improves at least to the point that it is not just bleeding big plays.

The Vikings have been better the last 3 weeks with all 3 games in the division, maybe playing their first game out of the NFC North in a month creates a bit of a down spot for them. While it’s easy to feel like they have turned the corner it is important to remember that just 3 weeks ago they were blown out by Atlanta 40-23.

Game 6: KC -7 @ LV

Bet% KC 59% LV 41%

This is the chalk play of the week. There is the obvious narratives that will come up with Andy Reid after a bye and the revenge factor after the Raiders gave KC their first and only loss of the year. I like KC because this Raiders defense which is in the bottom 3rd has been once again impacted by Covid protocols and have not been able to practice. Maybe you can get away with that situation against some teams but I don’t see how they hold up against KC. Oakland also has some big injuries on defense, they will be without Cleland ferrell who is one of 4 defensive lineman that are questionable this week.

Game 7 & 8: Pit -6.5 1H and Pit -10 full game @ Jac

I made the case above in the teaser of why I think the Jags game last week was more one sided than the score indicated and as a result this line is shorter than it should be. But to take it a step further, Jake Luton has played 2 games the first against Houston who is a bottom 5 defense and last week vs the packers who are league average but they were missing starters in the secondary. The Steelers defense is a major step up for the rookie back up QB and I don’t see how he survives this game without a couple of turnovers. I see the Steelers getting their work done early in this game with Thanksgiving and the Ravens on deck on Thursday so I am betting them both first half and full game.

Week 10 2020

LW : 4-3

2020- 24-29-1

Game 1: Hou @ Cle -3

Bet% Hou 45% Cle 55%

This was the first bet I made this week as I was pretty sure that it wasn’t going to stay at 3 though I still like the Browns even at the current 4s out there. The Texans have won 2 games this year and both are against the Jags. In their defense Houston did start with a very difficult schedule starting with Chiefs, Steelers and Ravens and also playing the Packers. The issue I think is that one they weren’t really in any of those games outside of the Steelers and now with the position they are in which is outside the playoff run and under an interm coach who has no chance of being a head coach again this seems like a lost season.

Matchup wise this is a great spot for the Browns, coming off of a bye the Browns get Nick Chubb back and now face the #28 DVOA run defense in Houston. This is expected to be a cold and rainy game so it plays perfectly into the Browns big matchup advantage with their #10 run offense.

Game 2: Phi -4 @ NYG

Bet% Phi 53% NYG 47%

I missed this at 3.5 because I thought there was a good chance that Giants money would come in and drop it to 3 but that never happened and money has continued to come in on Philly, a move I obviously agree with. These teams played 2 weeks ago in a game where the Eagles were opened around this same number and got bet up and the Giants covered and were in position to win straight up, so why take Philly here?

If we go back to that TNF game, Philly was coming off a brutal 3 game stretch where they flew across country to play SF, then on the road in Pittsburgh and back home to play the Ravens before playing Giants in that TNF game. This week we get Philly off of a bye and the really big news is that they are getting healthy for the first time in forever. I think you can make the case that this is the healthiest the Eagles offense has been since week 1 2019. At the skill positions the Eagles will have Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey back giving them the best 4 WR (Fulgham, Reagor, Ward, Alshon) Wentz has had all year and really 2 years. Sanders is back and at TE Goddart should be 100% after returning week 8. The Eagles will also be getting there LG Isaac Seumalo meaning the Eagles will have 4/5s of their starting lineup they would have had coming into the year.

Both from a schedule and injury/health scenerio this is a great spot for Eagles and it really comes down to Carson Wentz. Wentz has been a bottom 5 QB this year and if you believe that continues then the Giants are an easy take here. I see Wentz regressing back to a top 12 QB and benefiting from a much better cast around him should be a major help. I like the Eagles by a TD here.

Game 3: Was +3.5 (-115) @ Det

Bet% Was 44% Det 56%

Washington has been playing really tough the last few weeks but because they games were against fellow NFC East teams and nobody really considers them tough competition. Washington has been incredible on defense this year, they #5 in DVOA overall and #1 vs the pass which is why I think they have a very good shot at winning this game straight up. because I see the Lions pass game really struggling here.

The Lions have just been a much different offense in the games Kenny Golliday misses, last week against poor pass defense in Minnesota, Stafford had miserable day with 211 pass yards and 2 INTs. This Washington pass defense should be able to get pressure, the Lions offensive line is 21st in ASR while Washington is #1 in adjust sack rate.

Game 6: TB -5.5 @ Car

Bet% TB 62% Car 48%

Last week TB was the #1 DVOA team and went on to play one of the single worst games any team has played all season. I think had TB played anywhere near what was expected this line would have been at least 7 and if they won it would have been TD plus. The Panthers have been much better than expected this year, they are currently 16th in DVOA and at 5-4 ATS are a very popular underdog.

This just feels like a get right spot for the Bucs, Brady is coming off of one of his worst games of his career gets the 26th ranked Panthers defense but maybe most importantly the Panthers are a team that does not generate pressure, they are 26th in adjusted sack rate at just 4.5%. While its a great schedule spot for the Bucs it feels the opposite for the Panthers as they are coming off a great performance in KC last week, a game they were in the whole way and led most of the way and now have to get right back and play an embarrassed Bucs team.

Game 5: Cin +7 @ Pit

Bet% Cin 53% Pit 47%

Definitely missed the best of this number as it opened at 9 then went off the board most of the week and came back at 7.5 which I also didn’t get in at. It just seems like the Steelers play to the level of their competition and I don’t think the near loss last week to the Cowboys is going to shake them out of it the way a straight up loss woud have..

Roethlisberger will play this week after not being able to practice due to Covid. We have seen teams have varying results in this situation, some have handled better than others but not having your QB available at practice does seem like reasonable disadvantage.

The Bengals have been great on this spot as underdogs, despit only winning 2 games this year they are 6-2 ATS. In the end this is just about the number and following the money. This line has been dropping from the open and even went through the 7 at some of the sharper books so getting the 7 here is worth taking and hoping for another lackluster effort from the Steelers against a clearly inferior team.

Game 6: SF +10 @ NO

Bet% SF 47% NO 53%

This is the flip side of the bet above where I am taking the Bucs off of one of the worst losses of the season, here I am fading the Saints off of one of the single best performances of the year. There are no stats or numbers that are going to help make the case to take the 49ers here, the Saints are the #1 team by DVOA and look every bit of the Superbowl contender they were tagged at to start the year. The 49ers are actually better by DVOA then you would think at #15 which is why this line feels too much to me. Even with all the injuries SF is not the Jets or Jags they still have a lot of talent on the team and one of the best coaches in the league.

In the end I am just fading the Saints here, coming off of that dominant win on national TV vs the Bucs last week, this feels like a natural down spot and it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers are in this game the whole way.

Game 7: Den @ Oak Over 51

Bet% Over 62% Under 48%

Las Vegas is best over team in the league, they are 6-1-1 to the over, they are in the top 10 in scoring 27.2 PPG and in the bottom 10 in scoring defense giving up 28.2 PPG. Denver has the reputation of being a defensive team but this year while they are top 10 in DVOA they are also giving up 27.1 points per game and as a result have been an underrated over team with 5 overs to 3 unders.

I think there are a couple of scenarios that lead this game to the over, the first is a back and forth game where both offenses have success and we see a game with both teams in the 30’s. The other is a game scenario that we have seen the last few weeks for the Bronco’s which is they fall behind early and make a furious comeback late and as a result push the game over that way.

Game 8: 2 team 6 pt teaser LAC +1.5 @ Mia & Min @ Chi +8.5

The Chargers continue week after week to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory including last week when I was on them against the Raiders and they had 2 shots to win the game at the end and dropped both in excruciating fashion. This is probably the spot they win straight up but I am not strong enough to lose with them 2 weeks in a row so I love taking them through the 3 and 7 here. Miami is 2-0 with Tua at QB but have benefited from defensive TDs boh of those games. If we dig into the boxscores, last week Miami was outgained by 130 yards, the week before vs the Rams they were outgained by an amazing 325 yards. Not exactly a recipe for sustained success.

I like the Bears on MNF but again taking them through the 3 and 7 is really attractive here. The Vikings have had 2 straight wins behind Dalvin Cook dominating but the Bears are one of the leagues best run defenses at #7 in DVOA and I can see Nick Foles have success against this Vikings defense.

Week 9 Picks 2020

LW 4-2

2020- 20-26-1

Game 1: 2 Team Teaser GB -1.5 @ SF & Hou -1 @ Jac

Didn’t get a chance to post this before the TNF game but used GB in a teaser with Houston. The 49ers were so ravaged with injuries and with GB coming off of a bad loss this seemed like a spot where it was a good enough bet to expect them to just win. Money did come in on SF and Shanahan has owed the Packers but there was just too many pieces missing from that offense.

The Texans are in a similar position as the Packers. On the road playing a team missing their starting QB. The Jags have looked every part of being a bottom 3 team after that surprise week 1 win. The Texans are too far gone to make a run for the playoffs but a lot of their struggles this year are due to an impossibly difficult schedule. The Texans have played the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers and Packers who rank #2, #3, #4 and #8 in DVOA. In their first meeting with the Jags, Houston won 30-14 I don;t see them losing here to a QB named Luton.

Game 2: Chi +6.5 (Waiting to see if a 7 shows up) @ Ten

Bet% Chi 50% Ten 50%

The Titans are a team that I think continues to be over rated by the market, I think based mostly on last years performance and wins early this year over poor competition. The Titans are 4-2, their first 3 wins early came against the Bronco’s, Vikings and Jags and were by a combined 6 points. Then after an impressive win vs the Bills, they won a miracle OT game vs the Texans and then lost to the Steelers and Bengals. That is not the type of team that should be favored by a TD against a Bears team that as flawed as they are on offense is still a top 10 defense.

The Bears are probably as equally undeserving of their 5-3 record as the Titans are of their 5-2 record but the Bears have not been getting priced as an top tier team by oddsmakers the way Tennessee has. The Bears have not been great on offense but I do see this game being a bit of a get right spot for Nick Foles.

Game 3: 2 team Teaser NYG +8.5 @ Was & Mia +10.5 @ Ari

The Giants have played tough the last few weeks and easily could have won in Philly and on MNF vs TB. Washington has been equally competitive the last few weeks and have been getting especially good performances from their defense. To e this game should have just been a pick, I don’t see how you can make a case that either team is 2 or 3 points better but at +2.5 it makes the Giants the perfect teaser candidate as we can take them through the 3 and 7 and then add to it that this is one of the lowest totals on the board and it is a no brainer play.

Miami is actually rated higher in DVOA than the Cardinals although the 21st rated offense is due to Ryan Fitzpatrick and until we see Tua play at a simlar level we have to downgrade them on offense. Where we don’t have to downgrade is on defense, Miami is ranked 11th overall though 32 vs the run. The Cardinals have struggled against good defenses this year and I think we get a better game out of Tua so taking his game through the 7 and 10 makes the Dolphins very attractive in this teaser.

Game 4: Car +10.5 @ KC

Bet% Car 42% KC 68%

It’s never fun betting against the Chiefs but this feels like a bit of a down spot of the schedule for the Chiefs and the Panthers are good enough to stick around in this game if given the opportunity. The Chiefs have been playing easy, meaningless games for about a month now, they are coming off of an easy win vs the Jets and the week previous they covered double digits vs the Broncos but got a KO return TD and an interception return TD to give them the ATS win. Next week the Chiefs are going into a bye, we know Andy Reid is great out of byes and they are playing the Raiders who beat them a few weeks ago. I don’t think the Chiefs are looking ahead to the Raiders but I can see them looking past this game to a well deserved bye week.

The Panthers are going to get Christian McCaffrey back and while I think they have proven over the last 6 weeks that it is better for an offense to be more diverse and built around the pass than a star RB, in this game McCaffrey is coming back just in time. The Chiefs have become a very good pass defense, 7th in DVOA but against the pass they are 28th which sets up perfect for the Panthers and the return of McCaffrey.

Game 5: Oak @ LAC over 52

Bet% Over 70% Under 30%

Game 6: Oak @ LAC pk

Bet% Oak 57% LAC 43%

It’s not often I have a bet on the side and total of one game but that is the case here with Chargers and Raiders. First on the over, I think both offenses are going to have good matchups and be able to score in this game. Las Vegas is 13th in DVOA on offense and while it looks like Josh Jacobs will be out this week, they are getting back a couple of their starting linemen and also getting WR Bryan Edwards back. I like not having the option to just hand the ball off to Jacobs here, it forces the Raiders to play up in pace and because I see the Chargers scoring and getting out early, the Raiders are going to have to score to keep up.

The Chargers have become one of the fastest pace teams with Herbert at QB, they are 5th fastest in neutral game situations since Justin Herbert took over and against this #31 DVOA defense I see no reason they shouldn’t have a lot of success in this game.

As for the Chargers side, I really think we are getting a bargain because of the way the game ended last week in Denver. For the 3rd time in 4 weeks the Chargers blew a 2 score game and ended up losing straight up , obviously blowing ig leads is less than ideal but I think there is more to take out of the fact that they keep getting out to those leads rather than the fact that they have let teams get back. I think in this case we are getting the Chargers low and selling the Raiders high after their win in Cleveland.

Game 7: NO @ TB -4

Bet% NO 51% TB 49%

The SNF game the marquee game of the week and I do believe it offers some nice value on the favorite which is not usually the case. In some ways, this game reminds me of the 49ers- Seattle game last week, in that the square side which is the fav is the right side because it is a couple of points cheap. The Saints have not been the same Saints team we are used to this year because their defense is no where near the level it has been at in previous years. The Saints are giving up 28 points per game this year and haven’t played an especially difficult schedule with games vs the Bears, Panthers and Chargers in the last month.

The Bucs offense should get a boost from the addition of Antonio Brown to an offense that is already 5th in DVOA. The Bucs are the #1 DVOA team overall and the only team in the top 6 on offense and defense ( #1 DVOA) and I think are being undervalued in the market. The Saints may get Michael Thomas back in this game but I don’t think you can count on him to be a difference maker in this game as he was only a limited participant in practice this week