We are through the first quarter of the year and have 4 straight winning weeks in a row.

Winning in the NFL is hard, you can do all the right things, be on the right side and as we saw on Monday Night Football weird things can happen and it all goes up in smoke. That’s why runs like the one we are on to start the year really should be enjoyed because they really are rare and we know that a 0-4 or 1-3 week is always waiting around the corner.

2017: 14-6

Week 4 Results: 4 Wins 2 Losses

What Went Right:

• Bal-Pit: the 1st half under was not really in doubt for 29 of the 30 mins in first half but in the final minute we had to survive a Steelers 2 pt conversion and 61 yard J. Tucker FG attempt. Full game under would have also cashed and with less stress.
• Bills & 49ers: 2 big road dogs that we added late joined the Panthers as big dogs that didn’t just manage to stay in the game but were in position to win most of game. Bills got a lucky call on a fumble recovery that they returned for a TD that wasn’t a fumble but the cover was really never in doubt.
• Seattle looked like Seattle: Well at least in the 2nd half but that was very much the team I think will be the best NFC team by end of year. They did lose Cliff Avril and Chris Carson but this was a dominant performance by the defense who also scored twice.

What Went Wrong

• My Nemesis … Both of them: I would have to go back and check but I think the 2 teams I have the most losses since 2016 are betting on the Chargers and betting against the Lions. With the Chargers, that was it for me, no more until I can see that Anthony Lynn has learned from his mistakes and they stop making the same game management and offensive play calling mistakes over and over again.

 

• Lions: The Lions are the team that keeps beating math. I keep writing about all of the unsustainable ways they keep winning games and betting against them. Whether it’s the 4th Q comebacks, whether it’s being out-gained game after game or now with ridiculous turnover margin. This week the Detroit -Minnesota game featured 0 interceptions and 4 fumbles, 1 by the Lions and 3 by the Vikings. Detroit recovered all 4.  All 4! I hate you Detroit!!

*Week 5 picks will be up Saturday afternoon but I will mention that the one game I have already bet is Bengals -3. The line has bounced around between 3 and 3.5 so if you see a 3 and want to follow, you should grab it.