The grind continued last week, we got off to a good start with Bears and Browns but the Bengals were never in the Ravens game and the Rams got screwed on one of the worst fumble calls vs Pittsburgh and for the second straight week a defensive TD from the Steelers was the difference in a win and loss for us.
Game 1: Buf @ Mia +6.5
Bet% Buf 58% Mia 42%
I have seen some sharps’ on both sides of this game but I do not see how the Bills can be favored almost a TD on the road. Miami has not only won 2 straight games but in the first meeting between these teams a few weeks ago, the first start after Fitzpatrick got the starting job again, the Dolphins led the game after 3 quarters 14-9. The Bills are 24th in DVOA, the passing offense continues to be an issue at 28th in DVOA in fact with Fitzpatrick we are getting the QB playing much better this year, Josh Allen is 29th in QBR with Fitzmagic is 8th.
Game 2: Jac @ Ind Under 43.5
Bet% Over 40% 60%
In this game we have both starting QB’s playing their first games off of an injury, Jacoby Brisett missed last week’s loss to Miami due to a knee injury suffered the previous week vs the Steelers. Nick Foles makes his first start since the season opener when he broke his collar bone, I expect both QB’s to be rusty to start this game. Even in the Eagles Superbowl season, in Nick Foles had some ugly starts to end the season after taking over for Wentz. Both these teams are going to be very familiar with each others offenses due to the fact that Nick Foles, John Defilippo and Frank Reich were the starting QB, QB coach and OC of those 2017 Eagles. These are 2 very good defenses 12th and 10th DVOA but what I like is both are better vs the pass than the run which moves us towards the ideal game script of a close game with both teams running well and shortening the game.
Game 3: Ari +10.5 @ SF
Bet% Ari 73% SF 27%
This is a rematch from a couple of weeks ago an in that game Arizona was able to stay close at home but the line value in this game is probably on SF due to that finish. For me this is a bet on the impact of the 49ers injuries at their skill positions. George Kittle is probably the most important skill player on the team and has been Jimmy Garoppolo’s favorite target. Jimmy G will not only be missing Kittle he will also most likely be without Emmanuel Sanders who was hurt on MNF. The run game will also be impacted with the loss of Matt Breida and they will also have to play without starting LT Joe Staley. These injuries basically put this game in the hands of Garappollo and the defense and covering 10.5 points without all the key pieces in the pass game feels like to high a hill to climb. Arizona had success running on the 49ers with K.Drake a few days after acquiring him and that will probably be a key in this game.
Game 4: KC -3.5 @ LAC
Bet% KC 72% LAC 28%
This is one of the biggest DVOA discrepancies on the board with KC at 4 and LAC at 19, on a neutral field I would make this closer to 6 than 3.5 so I feel like this too much value to pass up. Last week KC lost a game they thoroughly dominated in the boxscore, had a chance to go up 8 late in the game before the wheels fell off and everything that could go wrong did. Patrick Mahomes was a little rusty but overall played really well with 440 yards passing and 3 TDs so the fear that injuries would derail his season doesn’t seem likely now. The Chiefs have lost 2 of the last 3 and 4 of the last 6 and now are only 1 game up on the surging Raiders so winning games in the divisions is critical. One of he under related stories of the season is the Chiefs improved pass defense, they are 5th vs the ass but 31st vs run. The Chargers are a much more efficient passing offense than running, their offense is 10th in passing and 23rd in rushing so to maximize their chance vs KC they will need to focus on the run which is not what they do best.