Week 12 Review

Week 12: 4-1

Season ATS: 47-26

Well he winning weeks continue and the last 3 weeks have been at a particularly torrid pace 7-0,5-2 and 4-1 for 16-3 or a ridiculous 84.2%. I know it can’t stay this hot but it has been a very fun ride, the finish line is getting closer and I think I have a good sense of a lot of teams right now so hopefully have some more winning weeks left. Week 12 had the fewest plays I have had and there were definitely plays I liked that won but I think it was a good a week for me to limit the total number of plays. Right now I’m feelin like the ODB of this shit

ODB 13

Game 1 Bal +3.5 @ NO

Bet% Bal 42 NO 58

Score: Bal 34 NO 24

Result: Win

This was the first game that jumped out to me when the lines came out and the first game I bet as I knew it wouldn’t stay above a FG which it didn’t. We know the better team does’t always win so it’s not enough to just pick the better team but there are games where if ou believe the line is saying the wrong team is the better team that you have to jump on. By opening the line at NO+4 that means that on a neutral the Saints would be a fav of .5 or 1 which I disagreed with, to me Bal was the better team and on a neutral I would make the Ravens at least a 2.5 fav. In the game both teams moved the ball extremely well, Bal avgd 7.9 yards/play while Saints got 7.5/play. The difference in the game ended up being a interception for TD the Ravens got early in the 2nd half, they led the game from that point out and were able to hold off the Saints

Game 2: Mia +7 @ Den

Bet% Mia 27% Den 73%

Score: Mia 36 Den 39

Result: Win

Kind of a strange game when you consider that we had 2 of the 3 best defensive teams in the league and we end up with a total of 75. Miami and their #3 ranked D actually looked really good through 3Q’s holding Broncos to just 17 and leading the game 28-17. Manning and crew managed to put up 22 in the 4th and steal the game but I think Miami once again proved that despite their record and these tough losses against really good teams they are in fact a very good team on both sides of the ball. Would of loved the straight up win as a dog but happy to get the cover as they did go down 11 in the 4th after 3 straight Den TD’s.

Game 3: Det +7.5 @ NE

Bet% Det 24% NE 76%

Score: Det 9 NE 34

Result: Loss

Note: This was the one loss of the week and after the 1st quarter it wasn’t close. While the Pats offense won the battle vs the #1 defense it was the Detroit offense which for the 2nd straight game let the Lions down. Detroit averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt on 46 passes, Stafford had a QB rating of 49.5 and failed to pass for a TD. The Pats did exactly what they have done during this winning streak which is get ahead early and control the game though it is interesting that even with a big lead they only ran the ball 20 times compared to 53 pass attempts. Going forward hard to take Lions in a game untill we see the offense put together a good game, look to under or pass. NE did not have any issues looking ahead to GB and took the Det challenge on defense very seriously. Clearly one of the best 2 or 3teams in the league.

Game 4: Cle +3 @ Atl

Bet% Cle 45% Atl55%

Score: Cle 26 Atl 24

Result: Win

This game was a lot closer than it should of been for the Browns. Cle out gained the Falcons in every phase, they avarged 6.7 yards per play to Atl’s 4.6, 7.5 yards per pass attempt to Atl’s 4.6 and 5.6 yards per rush to Atl’s 27. What kept this game in the balance was that Cleveland went 1-6 in the redzone while Atl was 2-2 and Cleveland also lost the turnover battle 2-3 including a crucial interception late in the 4th in the Atlanta endzone that allowed Falcons to stay in the game, come back and take the lead. Atlanta is who they are, a very mediocre team in a terrible division and the great home records of the past in the Matt Ryan era no longer apply because they simply are not a very good team.

Game 5: Dal @ NYG+4.5

Bet% Dal 74% NYG 26%

Score: Dal 31 NYG 28

I thought this was a game where Dallas was in a look ahead spot and the Giants were playing a game that was basically going to get heir last shot to have a big moment. I think that is how this game played out, Dallas was very lackluster early and the Giants behind a great performance by Odel Beckham jr led the game 21-10 at halftime. Eli Manning coming off his worst game of the season last week with 5 interceptions came back this week with 3TD’s 1Int and a passer rating of 112.3. Unfortunately for Eli, Romo ended up having a little better game throwing for 4TDs and a passer rating of 143.4 putting together a game winning drive where they went 80 yards in 1min 59secs with 1:01 left in the game

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