Week 11 Review

Week 11: 5-2

Season ATS: 43-25

For the 2nd week in a row the good times continued to roll and now the season record sits at just over 63% which is a pretty amazing run. Getin it while the gettin is good, I know it can’t keep up at this pace but I will enjoy it for now.

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Game 1 Buf @ Mia under 42

Bet% Over 57 Under 43%

Score Buf 9 Mia 22

Result: Win

This game really went basically to form and in the  first half better than I could of hoped for. Both defenses dominated early, at half the score was 6-3 Buf, in the 2nd we saw Mia continued to dominate only giving up another FG while forcing a safety. Miami held Buf to 2.8 yards per rush and 4.5 yards per pass attempt. On the other side while Mia did get a couple of TD’s through the air, one set up by a fumble, the Bills D got 5 sacks, 7TFL and 6 QB hits they also held Mia 20 2-6 in the redzone.

Game 2: Det +1 @ Arz

Bet% Det 52 Arz 48

Score: Det 6 Arz 14

Result: Loss

Note: I have been on Detroit and the unders a lot, the unders keep cashing but once again Lions Offense let down the defense and they failed to win here. The Lions gave up 14 in the first Q to and then shut out the Cardinals the rest of the game, the problem is Arizona only gave up 3 the rest of the game.  Det went 5-15 on 3rd down and only averaged 4.8 yards per pass.  Stafford had no TD’s and a pick and a passer rating of only 63.6 in one of his worst games of the season. Arizona was full makes for this win.

Game 3 Det @ Arz Under 42.5

Bet% Over 56 Under44

Score: Det 6 Arz 14

Result: Win

While we lost the pick on the Lions, the under cashed again this week and the Lions have now had 8 of 10 of their games go under while the Cards have are 3-6-1 over/under.  Both these elite defenses  played really well,, while the Cards did have a good game passing especially in the first quarter  they were completely shut down in the run game where Det gave up under 2 yards per carry on 26 attempts.

Game 4 Min@ Chi -2.5

Bet% Min 28% Chi 72%

Score: Min 13 Chi 21

Result: Win

Note: In looking at the Bears recent losses it was easy to see that QB’s at the top of the passer rating board were killing them but their defense managed to hold up against the QB’s that are not elite. Bridgwater came in with a passer rating of 70.4, in this game he was right in line with that at 76.2. The key in this game was Chi managed to hold Min to 2-11 on 3rd down and as a result Min only ran 46 plays in this game to the Bears 74.  The bears dominated this game and if not for 2 Cutler picks the game would have been a much bigger blow out.


Game 5 SF -3.5 @ NYG

Bet% SF 71% NYG 29%

Score SF 16 NYG 10

Result : Win

This was a strange game and even though I won it, I’m not sure how I should feel about it. Going into it I thought the 49ers would have success running the ball and that their defense would be able to control the Giants especially their pass rush. Well they ran the ball for 148 yards on 37 attempts (4.0/per) which is fine but not great and their defense managed to generate a lot of pressure, hold NYG to 5.6 yards per att and turn Eli over 5 times.  5 interceptions and the Giants still had 2 chances to win this game with 4Q drives in the redzone.

The 49ers pass offense is too inefficient to be counted on at this point, Kaepernick failed to pass for 200 yards in this game  and while this defense looks to be picking up steam, hard to believe in this pass game until we see some improvements.

Game 6 ATL @ CAR+2.5

Bet% Atl 66% Car 34%

Score Atl 19 Car 17

Result: Win

Note: This was a pretty typical game for 2 bad teams, Atlanta got off to an early lead and Carolina came back in the 4th had a chance to take lead with late FG which they missed. In the end this was a pretty even game ad getting the points at home paid off though it did take getting the best number, this line moved between 1 and 2.5, I waited till the end and got 2.5 and needed all of it.

Game 7:TB@ Wash -7

Bet% TB40% Wash 60%

Score : TB 27 Was 7

Result: Loss

Note: This game was kind of amazing, Washington was coming off a bye, playing a team that had a point differential of -105 and got their doors blown off.  Lesson of the week, don’t lay 7 with a terrible team, no matter what.Wash may have some decent spots as dogs going forward bu can’t see myself laying a number more than 3 with them.


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