Week 11 Picks

Well with the win on Thursday night night we are riding the largest win streak of the year with 8 straight wins, one of the reasons has been trusting the numbers on totals, specifically on unders and even more specifically riding the Detroit defense.

LW: 7-0

Season ATS 39-23 (includes TNF)

Game 2: Det +1 @ Arz

Bet% Det 52 Arz 48

It’s interesting that Det at 7-2 is on the road at a team that is 8-1 and only a 1 point dog in this game, this may be due to the Carson Palmer injury but I think the line is actually a good line because  Detroit is a better team overall. By DVOA Det ranks 9th overall and #1 on Defense, while Arizona ranks 15th overall and 5th on defense. I think the current Lions team is actually better than that ranking because on offense the Lions rank 22nd but remember that Calvin Johnson missed 4 games and was hobbled for a couple of other ones and this offense is much more efficient when Johnson is healthy.

Drew Stanton will start at QB in this game, he has played in 3 games this year and the Cards were 2-1 in those games but Stanton only played well in one of the games. In their 23-14 win Stanton threw for 243 yards, 2 TDs and had a passer rating of 98.5 but it was alos the only game he completed over 50% of his passes at 54.5%. On the season Stanton is only completing 49.5% of passes and against a defense comparable to this Lions D, in the game against the Bronco’s, Stanton completed only 42% of passes and had a passer rating of 56.2

Arizona has alos been very reliant on turnovers, they are +12 TO margin which is highest in the league and are 3rd in the league in points from ST/D, including 2 TDs last week, ST/D TD’s are generally pretty random and not a source  be trusted to count on

Game 3 Det @ Arz Under 42.5

Bet% Over 56 Under44

I have been riding unders both Lions unders and also for games featuring top 10 DVOA defensive teams and we have both those here.  The Lions are the #1 DVOA defense they are in the top 3 in yards/play, yards/pass and yards rush against and are in 5th in opp passer rating, TD% in RZ and sack percentage. That #1 defense plays against a back up QB that completes about 50% of his passes, they should have a big game

The Cards are 5th in defensive DVOA, they are 3rd in defensive yards/pt at 18.7, 4th in yards per rush given up at 3.4 and are one of the best teams in the league in generating turnovers with 19 so far.  Both these teams are great against the run and neither team runs the ball very well (30th & 31st) which means we will see lots of 3rd in longs and punts, there is a of course risk is that we may also see more big plays because of this.

Game 4 Min@ Chi -2.5

Bet% Min 28% Chi 72%

This game is really a bet on a Bears bounce back, there is nothing in the season numbers that would make you want to look to the bears side. The Bears coming off of 2 of the worst defensive performances of the NFL season in back to back games rank 30th on defense and last in opp passer rating at 108.8.

The reason I think the Bears bounce back here is the last 2 weeks they have faced GB and NE who with Rogers and Brady are ranked 1st and 4thin Passer rating and were able to exploit  the Bears defense completely. The Vikings have a rookie QB in Bridgewater who has a passer rating of 70.4 and while Brady and Rogers combined for 12 TD’s in there 2 games vs the Beard, Bridgewater has 3TDs all season,so it is unliklely he over powers the Bears D like the 2 hall of famers.

On offense the Bears rank 14th by DVOA while the Vikings D ranks 30th, if Vutler can stay away from intercetions which is certainly no guarantee the Bears should be able to get back on track and I expect them to do so here.

Game 5 SF -3.5 @ NYG

Bet% SF 71% NYG 29%

The Giants played in Sea last week vs a read option offense and gave up 510 yards including an unbelievable 7.8 yards per rush attempt, the Giants rak dead last vs the run giving up 5 yards per rush, they are not much better vs the pass where they rank 30th giving up 8 yards per pass.

The 49ers are coming off a big road win in New Orleans and know they need to continue to win to have a chance at playoffs as they are currently behind both the Cardinals and Seahawks in their division. Like Seattle, SF runs the read option offense and  last week  they have got back to focusing on the run with 32 carries for 132 yards, I expect them to focus on read option and control this game on the ground. Also I think something to watch to that end is, it seems like as the season gets later we see Kapernick run more, if he keeps on read option I think he can have some very big gains so it will be interesting to see how many rushes Kaep gets here.

On defense the 49ers rank 8th by DVOA and should get better as they get Aldon Smith back in this game, meanwhile the Giants have the 18th best offense but it is not expected that Rashard Jennings will be 100% in this game and Williams has not proven to be an effective player in his absence.

Game 6 ATL @ CAR

Bet% Atl 66% Car 34%

This is a game between bad teams but I think the home/road splits as well as last week’s results offer a lot of value here. The Falcons won in TB last week but they are still 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-6 SU in their last 7 road games. Atlanta has the worst defense in the league by DVOA, they give up 6 yards per play and 8 yards per pass.

The panthers were blown out on MNF by the Eagles a game where Cam Newton got sacked 9 times and was hit another 8 as the Eagles exploited the Panthers biggest hole, their offensive line play.  This is where I think this week’s matchup is much better for Carolina, Atlanta is not a team with a strong pass rush as they are 2nd to last in the league in sack%. With a healthy running game and time in the pocket, Newton should be able to get back on track exploit the Atl defense.

The Panthers defense has been aweful this year ranked 29th while teh Falcons have the #10 offense on DVOA but again this is wheret he home/road splits show up. Matt Ryan at home averages 9.4 yards per pass with 9TDs 2INT and a passer rating of 115.7 but on the road he averages only 6.3 yards per attempt, 7TDs 6Ints and a passer rating of 79.2, it seems crazy and maybe unsustainable but it has gone on so long that it has to be factored in vs a division opponent I think Car will do enough on D to win here.

Game 7:TB@ Wash -7

Bet% TB40% Wash 60%

I love this spot for Washington, coming off of the bye we get RG3’s 2nd start after coming off his injury while TB comes off of a home loss vs divsional opponent that plays really poor on the road which lead to them going back to a QB they already benched. While both of these teams are bad they are still in different classes of bad.  In point differential Wash is -32 on the season while TB is an amazing -105 and they are in fact the #32 ranked team by DVOA.

This game reminds me a lot of the Wash Jags game in week 2 of season that RG3 got hurt. TB is 24th in sacks given up at 7.8% of plays and Wash is 10th in the lague in getting sacks so I expect  Wash to dominate this game with their pass rush against one of the worst offensive lines in football.

 

 

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