Week 11

Season ATS 38-23

Game 1 Buf @ Mia under 42

Bet% Over 57 Under 43%

Last week I went 3-0 with unders and these 2 teams were involved in 2 of those games, honestly I expect this game to be very similar to the ones they played in last week.  These are 2 of the best defensive teams in the league, Miami is #3 in defensive DVOA while Buf is #4, they rank 3rd & 4th in opponents passer rating at 78 and 79 but what is even more remarkable is how good they have been in the last 3 weeks by that metric. In the last 3 weeks Miami opponents have a passer rating of a paltry 62.4, somehow Buffalo has been even better as their opponents have a passer rating of 44.7 in the last 3 weeks.

Both defenses have dominant pass rushes, Buffalo ranks 2nd in sack% with sacks on 9.42% of pass plays while Miami is 6th at 7.8%, I think the pass rush will be able to be even stronger in this game for Buffalo as Miami will be without their starting LT Brandon Alberts who was hurt last week and will be out for the year.

Not only do we have 2 top defenses in this game we also have key injuries on offense, Miami as stated above will miss Brandon Albert and they will also most likely be without starting RB Lamar Miller. For Buffalo, Sammy Watkins is not 100% and Fred Jackson is expected to be out leaving the rushing duties to Dixon and Bryce Brown who although  very talented is prone to fumbling as shown last week.

The line has dropped the last few days but i exepet this score to be in the same neighbourhood as both of these teams’s games last week and think it ends up somewhere in the mid 30’s.