Week 10 : 7-0
Season ATS : 38-23
Weeks like this don’t happen very often but in Week 10 we get the magical and all so allusive Perfect week going 7-0. Curt Henning would be proud.
Game 1: Car @ Phi-6.5
Bet%Car 36 Phi 64
Score: Car 21 Phi 45
I loved this game, thought the Panthers were a perfect matchup for the Eagles and as long as Sanchez didn’t turn it over Eagles would be able to put up points. While I thought it would happen on the ground, Panthers stacked the box and forced Sanchez to beat them and he did throwing for 8.4 yards/pass, over 300 yards and TD.
On the other side the game went as I expected as the Eagles dominated the Panthers terrible Offensive line, they had 29 sacks/QB hits/TFL’s which led to 5 Panther turnovers including a pick 6.
Game 2 KC @ Buf Under 42.5
Bet%Under 32 Over 68
Score: KC 17 Buf 20
This game played out as close to script as I could of hoped, while the Chiefs one it was the Bills D that was the most dominant. The Bills defensive line has wreaked havoc all season and in this game they were as good as ever, 24 sacks/ QB Hits/TFL’s while holding the Chiefs to 4.7 yards/play. On the other side the Chiefs were able to force 3 Bill turnovers and maybe most importantly held Buf to 0-4 in the redzone for TD’s. RZ TD % is definitely a key when looking at the under.
Game 3: Mia @ Det under 44
Bet% Under 28 Over 72
Score: Mia 16 Det 16
Note: The best 2 DVOA defenses lived up to their rankings in this game as this score was actually helped greatly by a MIA blocked FG which they returned inside the Det 5 and scored their only TD of the game. Miami was held to 228 total yards in this game and 3.8 yards per play, they also turned the ball over twice. Det got Calvin Johnson back and managed 6.9 yards per pass but were not able to score in the Redzone until the last play of the game. RZTD% again was key here as the 2 teams combined for 2TDs in 7 RZ attempts
Game 4 Mia @ Det-2.5
Bet% Mia 36 Det 64
Score Mia 16 Det 20
Detroit dominated this game, as mentioned above they held Miami to 228 yards and 2.6 yards per rush and it wasn’t until a blocked FG at 13-9 Det that Miami returned inside the 5 that they were ever really in the game. If Lions make that kick it’s 16-9 in the 4th quarter and Miami who had not moved the ball all game would need a TD to tie but the special teams play got them the lead. Lions outgained Mia by 130 yards, won the turnover battle but still needed a comeback drive to get win and cover, you would have to think these FG mishaps have to stop being so prevalent at some point but was happy to get win here.
Game 5 Ten @ Bal -9.5
Bet%Ten 28 Bal 78
Score Ten 7 Bal 14
Note: Bal came out flat and played a pretty terrible 1st hapf in this game, Titans scored first and led 7-0 and at half this game was 7-7. As the game wore on, Ravens began to dominate and the Titans just couldn’t move the ball on offense. ravens held Ten to 210 yards on 54 plays, 3.9/play, and forced 2 turnovers. Even though the Ravens are currently sitting last in their division, in terms of point differential they are one of the best teams in the league which makes them a good side in these games with large spreads.
Game 6 Teaser SF @ NO Under 55, Phi-1
Scores SF 27 NO 24, Phi 45-Car 21
Very strange game in NO, in the first half the 49ers scored 21 points 14 of which came off of 2 NO turnovers deep in their end. After those scores it seemed like the game calmed down and the under would cash even without the teaser but that changed late when the 49ers completed a 4th an 10 deep in their end and went on to tie the game and force the game to OT where they won. Losing the under on a final drive like that would of been a killer so this was a game where the teaser proved to be the right play even though the game did play out much the way I thought and should of been under the 49-50 actual line. Eagles as posted above won handily.
Game 7 Pit @ NYJ +4.5
Bet% Pit 80 NYJ 20
Score : Pit 13 NYJ 20
Note: This was the Any Given Sunday game of the week. Nobody wanted to bet on the Jets this week, they had been blown out again by KC the week previous and the Steelers were coming off of 2 of the most impressive offensive performance the season. Steelers who were ripe for a let down ended up doing just that, they turned the ball over 4 times in this game turnovers are the great equalizer. This was a big win for me because it shows the importance of these let down spots and the 80% and over on a side bets, in these spots need to be on the dog or lay off.