Thanksgiving

2016 Week 12 Picks

Thanksgiving Week in the NFL is an interesting one because we have the full day of games on Thursday and then because so many people are off and at home watching games we see a lot of money on games and larger bet% splits because there is so much public money in market. We hit on our one Turkey Day pick with Washington +7 and hope to continue our hot streak with this week’s cards. I have a feeling there will be a lot of work Sunday morning and some additional picks not listed because if the public money shows up Sat night and Sunday morning we might see some additional value.

Week 11: 4 – 1

2016 (Through Week 11): 37-23-2

Game 1: Was +7 @ Dal

Game 2: Cin @ Bal Under 41.5

Bet% Over 42% Under 58%

The Bengals had as bad a week as you can have last week, not only did they lose at home to the Bills effectively ending any hopes of making the playoffs, they also lost AJ Green for the foreseeable future and Geo Bernard for the season. We saw the Bengals last week struggle on offense vs  the Bills who are good on defense but basically league average, Bengals were shut out in the 2nd half and averaged just 4.2 yards per play for the game.

The Ravens are a much better defense than the Bills especially vs the run. I expect the Bengals want to lean heavily on Jeremy Hill in this game with no AJ Green and Bernard and the Ravens are the #1 run defense by DVOA and yards per att. Bengals passing game will rely heavily on the TE Eifert, remember they started the season without their #2 and #3 WRs from the last few years Jones and Sanu and neither Lefel of Boyd has made an impact this season. Add to all this that the Bengal’s offensive line has been one of the worst all year, currently 26th in adjusted sack rate.

The Ravens offense has been a problem all year, they’re 30th in offensive DVOA and the offense is averaging just 18.1 points per game despite not having faced many elite defenses. I’m not sure either team hits 20 in this game and think we are most likely to see a score somewhere around 17-13. (more…)

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Week 11 Results: 4-1 Plus Thanksgiving Day Pick

This week’s review includes a bonus Turkey day pick. Week 11 continued our hot streak from Week 10 as for the first time this year we had big back to back weeks. Unders were a major part of the week 11 card and even though 2 of the 3 games we bet went under we only ended up 1-1 in those games. Whats frustrating is that the Vikings-Cards game was one of only 2 games on the entire schedule that went over (12 of the 14 week 11 games went under) and you will read below it had no business going over. Still a 4-1 week is a great week and our season record is now over 61%

shinsuke-week-11

Thanksgiving Day Pick (Week 12)

Game 1: Was +7 @ Dal

Bet% Was 48% Dal 52%

Betting against the Cowboys has been about as bad a bet as there has been on the card as they have won 9 straight games not just straight up but ATS. That winning streak means that the price to bet Dallas keeps going up and getting the full TD here is too much value to pass up.

Lets first start off with the fact this is a divisional game and if we look at the Cowboys 3 toughest games of the season so far they are unquestionably the loss in the opener to the Giants, Week 2 in Washington and the comeback OT win at home vs the Eagles. Washington lost that week 2 game 27-23 and while the Cowboys are a much better team now than they were them so is Washington.

Washington has been steadily moving up in league rankings, in week 4 they ranked 14th in DVOA, currently they are 7th, the Cowboys comparatively rank 4th.   There is no question that Cowboys have a major advantage in the run game, Dallas has the #1 rushing offense and Washington in my numbers ranks 28th but there is some light in the tunnel as over their last 3 games Washington has given up just 3.7 yards per rush att compared to 4.6 on the season. Those 3 games were against the Vikings, Bengals and Lions so nowhere near the calibre of the Cowboys but there are some signs that Washington’s run defense is tightening up.

In the end I expect both offenses to have a lot of success in this game, we have seen the over get bet from 49 to 51 and like the other 3 divisional games I expect a close 1 score game.

Week 11 Review: 4 Wins 1 Loss

Updated 2016:  37-23-2

week-11-results (more…)

Week 13 – Thanksgiving Day

LW 4-1

Season 47-26

Game 1 Chi @ Det Under 48

Bet% Over 57% 43%

Detroit is an under machine right now, the #1 DVOA offense even after giving up 34 to the Patriots last week has had 8 or 9 of the 11 games go under (depending on line) because while their defense is premier giving up 17.3 point per game, the offense has run dry. Over the last 7 weeks the Lions have averaged 13.6 points per game and in those same 7 games only 1 game has gone over, a 24-23 win vs the Saints where the total was set at 45.5. The Lions are just not a very efficient offense they are 30th in yards per point and 24th in RZ TD at 50%

As for Chicago, their offense has also slowed down, they are the 20th in the league scoring 21.5 ppg and in the last 3 games they are down to 18.7. The Bears are very good in the red zone where they score TD’s 66% of time (5th) but they only get on average 3 trips per game(17th) and Det holds teams to TDs on 51% of trips (12th). On defense Chicago has the 23rd ranked DVOA defense and had 2 historically bad games vs the Patriots and Packers where they gave up 50 to each of those teams which is why I think this total is as high as it is. Outside of those 2 HOF QB’s the most points that the Bears have given up was 27 to Mia and Atl, 2 teams in the top 10 in offensive DVOA which Det is not.

So we have 2 offenses that are struggling, 1 elite defense and 1 defense that has been exploited by the best offenses but been about league average vs the rest of the field. After getting handled last week, I think the Lions defense has a big game and keeps the Bears below 20 which should get us the under with a number this high.

Game 2: Phi +3 @ Dal

Bet% Phi 42 Dal 58

This is the biggest game of the year in the NFC East as the 2 division leaders play their first game of 2 in the next 3 weeks.  The Eagles are ranked 8th in DVOA while Dallas is 10, what’s interesting about the Chip Kelly led Eagles is that it is their offense that holds their ranking back as their defense is 8th, Special teams are 1st but the offense is 18th. On offense the Eagles have struggled in 2 places, the first s the red zone where they are scoring TD’s only 46% of the trips and the other is turnovers where the Eagles are last with 27 giveaways.

A lot of he Eagles issues on offense  have been due to issues on the offensive line, the Eagles have had 4 key linemen miss at least 4 games this year but this will be the 3rd straight week that the Eagles have their 4 best linemen playing.  We can see some improvement in the last 3 weeks where their RZ TD% has been 7pts higher than their season average at 53.3% as well as Shady Mccoy who after struggling most of the year has averaged 4.9 yard per attempt the last 2 weeks. I expect that success to continue vs the Cowboys who give up 4.3 per rush attempt.

The Dallas offense has been dominant all year, they lead the league in rushing yards, 2nd in yards per attempt at 4.9 which allows them to have big plays in the pass game where they average 7.8 yards per pass att (2nd). That run game has been slowed a bit the last few weeks, in the last 3 they are averaging 4.5 yards per att which is still very good but not quite as elite as the 4.9 over the season. The Eagles defense lines up well vs Dallas as what they do best his play the run, they are giving up 3.9 yards per att( 9th) and they have actually been even better than that the last 3 weeks giving up just 3.5 yards attempt. If the Eagles can slow the Dallas run game they should be able to get pressure on Romo, Eagles are 2nd in the league in sack% and again over the last 3 games have been even better getting sacks on 11.4% of plays.

The big hole on Dallas is their defense ranked 25th in DVOA, they are giving up 7,4 yards per pass att and getting sacks on only 4.6% of plays, so if the Eagles offensive line plays to their abilities Sanchez should have plenty of time and opportunities to make plays, Eagles are averaging 7 yards per pass but again that’s been better the last 3 weeks where they are averaging 7.6. The 2 big wildcards are turnovers where the Eagles are last and special teams where the Eagles are first, if they can keep the turnovers down I think Eagles win straight up.

Game 3: Sea @ SF under 40.5

Two top 10 DVOA defenses playing against offense that have struggled to be consistant in scoring points in this game. 5of the 6 meetings between these two teams have gone under and for the 49ers, 4 of their last 5 have gone under, the only exception was an OT game against the Saints. The 49ers defense has been especially good in the last 3 weeks when Chris Borland was inserted into MLB and they also had top pass rusher Aldon Smith return for the last 2 weeks.

These are two of the stingiest teams in the league, Seattle gives up 19.8 PPG while SF gives up 20.5 but even better than that in the last 3 games these teams have given up 14.7 and 15.7 respectively. Both of these offenses are based on the run and both defenses handle the run very well, SF gives up 4.0 yards per rush while Seattle is even better giving up only  3.5. The 49ers have been great against the pass leading the league in opponent passer rating at 74.1 but again over the last 3 weeks that has been even better as the opp passer rating is an amazing 58.6 in that period.

A key to get unders is redzone play and these are also 2 of the worst teams in the redzone, Sea is 21st at 50% while SF is last at 40% meanwhile these are 2 o the best defenses at keeping teams out of the redzone as they rank 3rd and 5th allowing only 2.5 and 2.7 redzone trips per game. This is one of the lowest unders we have seen in week’s which is interesting but I’m not sure it will be low enough.