This week’s review includes a bonus Turkey day pick. Week 11 continued our hot streak from Week 10 as for the first time this year we had big back to back weeks. Unders were a major part of the week 11 card and even though 2 of the 3 games we bet went under we only ended up 1-1 in those games. Whats frustrating is that the Vikings-Cards game was one of only 2 games on the entire schedule that went over (12 of the 14 week 11 games went under) and you will read below it had no business going over. Still a 4-1 week is a great week and our season record is now over 61%
Thanksgiving Day Pick (Week 12)
Game 1: Was +7 @ Dal
Bet% Was 48% Dal 52%
Betting against the Cowboys has been about as bad a bet as there has been on the card as they have won 9 straight games not just straight up but ATS. That winning streak means that the price to bet Dallas keeps going up and getting the full TD here is too much value to pass up.
Lets first start off with the fact this is a divisional game and if we look at the Cowboys 3 toughest games of the season so far they are unquestionably the loss in the opener to the Giants, Week 2 in Washington and the comeback OT win at home vs the Eagles. Washington lost that week 2 game 27-23 and while the Cowboys are a much better team now than they were them so is Washington.
Washington has been steadily moving up in league rankings, in week 4 they ranked 14th in DVOA, currently they are 7th, the Cowboys comparatively rank 4th. There is no question that Cowboys have a major advantage in the run game, Dallas has the #1 rushing offense and Washington in my numbers ranks 28th but there is some light in the tunnel as over their last 3 games Washington has given up just 3.7 yards per rush att compared to 4.6 on the season. Those 3 games were against the Vikings, Bengals and Lions so nowhere near the calibre of the Cowboys but there are some signs that Washington’s run defense is tightening up.
In the end I expect both offenses to have a lot of success in this game, we have seen the over get bet from 49 to 51 and like the other 3 divisional games I expect a close 1 score game.
Week 11 Review: 4 Wins 1 Loss
Updated 2016: 37-23-2
What Went Right
- Chiefs Finally Drop one: The last 2 weeks the Chiefs won games that they were outgained and offensively ineffective but were able to pull out with great play on defense and special teams. I said in the right up that asking the Chiefs to cover a TD is just asking too much with their offense and this week not only did they not cover they ended up losing straight up. The Chiefs have lived off of turnovers but in this game they had 2 giveaways as well which basically made covering this number impossible for that offense.
- Colts Fast Start: The Colts opened up a 21-0 lead which essentially meant that the Titans had to go away from their top player Demarco Murray and basically have to be a pass only offense. The Titans did get close late but Colts were able to close out with some big plays to TY Hilton.
- Bills overcome key injury, Bills don’t– Bills lost LeSean Mccoy in this game, Bengals lost AJ Green but Bills were able to still able to average 5.4 yards per play whereas the Bengals offense in the 2nd half just fell apart. 5 of the 6 Bengals drives in 2nd half were 5 plays or less and ended in punts.
- Didn’t need the 6pts: The 2 team teaser we used on the unders in NYG-CHI & Phi-Sea both went under the original number where we didn’t need the tease though in the Eagles-Seahawks game there was a TD called back. The line moves proved to be dead on in both these games though I did expect the Eagles defense to have a better game vs the Seahawks offensive line. All that being said, Russell Wilson is ridiculous and about to set the league on fire.
- Vikings–Cards combined for 500 yards: These teams averaged 4.1 and 4.0 yards per play on offense, there were 41 combined pressures in this game including 28 QB Hits and sacks. The Vikings had a total of 217 yards. 217 yards TOTAL!
What Went Wrong
- Vikings-Cards combined for 54 points: The Vikings scored on a 100 yards interception return TD. The Vikings scored on a 104 yard kick off return. The Vikings scored 20 points in the first half. I mean come on! If they play this game 10 times, I would guess 8 of them end under 35. This one started crazy and the crazy didn’t stop.