double digit underdogs

Week 16 Review

Week 16 was a great week for dogs especially TD plus dogs, all 3 wins this week came in that situation, the rest of the card was basically the dogs breakfast.

Week 16: 3-2-1

2015 ATS: 57-35-3

Week 16 results

Wk 16

What Went Right:

  • Dogs.. Big Dogs: All 3 wins this week came from Dogs of TD or more, Atl+7, Cle +12, Stl +12. Two of the three (Atl & Stl) won straight up, in fact if you add in the Ravens-Steelers game which had the Ravens as 11 point dogs, all 3 division games that had spreads of 7 or more saw the under dog not just cover but win straight up.
  • There is that narrative that we hear at the end of every year, Team So and So has had a down year and the chance to be a spolier in this game is their Superbowl. Not sure how much we can attribute these upsets to that narrative but in the case of the Steelers, they had every incentive to win the game for playoff reasons but the Ravens still managed to win the game. That divisional component is  think the key in these upsets,these underdogs know the opponent and usually have had success against them making the likelihood of a close game much greater regardless of their current circumstance.

What Went Wrong

Can’t get TB right: My record on the Bucs has to be one of the worst on the season as I always seem to be on the wrong side. My numbers have them as atop half team but they have basically flopped as favorites and it happened again here as they lost straight up to the Bears.

Chargers came to play: Handicapping motivation is always dicey and this seemed like an absolute let down spot for the Chargers coming off their emotional win in week 15 but at least in the first half that wasn’t the case. San Diego put up 17 and in the 1st half and controlled much of the game making a raiders cover of more than a FG almost impossible


Week 10 Review – Underdog Week

A remarkable week 10 where we saw underdogs cover 12 of the 14 games and even more incredible was that 11 of those underdogs won the game straight up. Only the Giants covered the number but didn’t win straight up vs the Patriots and there were about 4 things that had to all happen for NE to come back and get the win. With this week going the way it did, it really should have been a bigger week for me, there were about 3 or 4 games that I liked and ended up leaving off because I had been trying to make fewer plays weekly but not sure I am good enough at this point to isolate top plays from the rest. All that being said, another winning weekend and the overall record continues to hover above 60%

Dancing entrance

Week 10: 3-2

2015 ATS 35-22-2

Week 10 Results

wk10 (more…)