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2016 Week 11 Picks

Every week is different, there are weeks where games jump out right away, there are weeks where nothing looks good until the weekend. This week as I scanned the card early nothing jumped out and by the time I did like a few games we saw some big line movements, especially in the totals.  We are in the part of the season where weather begins to play a larger part and Sharps will start hitting unders early in the week either anticipating winter conditions or simply getting some insurance just in case. Something I will start doing as well on Sunday Nights. To get around the line drives I am playing a teaser card on unders and I anticipate I will be playing a lot more unders.

Week 10: 5-2

2016: 33-22-2

2015: 63-37-3

 

Game 1: Ari @ Min Under 40

Bet% Over 39% Under 61%

When looking at playing unders one of the things that I think gives the best chances if there is a mis-match between the defensive lines and offensive lines and it is rare we see a game where both sides have an advantage like we see in this game.

The Vikings issues on the offensive line have been well documented and it should get even worse because they lost starting T Jake Long for the season this week. The fact that it will get appreciably worse because they lost a player that was a street FA and arguably not even a replacement level player tells you everything. According to DVOA, Vikings are 31st in run blocking, 22 in pass blocking and  26th in overall sack percentage giving up sacks on 7% of pass plays but in the last 3 games that number shoots up to 9.92%.

Meanwhile the Cards pass rush has been really good, they are 12th in adjusted sack rate,7th in total sack % and #1 in my pressure rankings which include QB hits and hurries. Arizona is 4th in defensive DVOA and 3rd vs the pass, since Vikings only chance to move the ball is in air as they are not just last in rushing but are historically bad averaging only 2.7 yards per rush.

On flip side we have seen the Vikings defence slip a little during this 4 game losing streak, after 5 weeks they were 2nd in Defensive DVOA, they are now 6th but to put that slide into perspective, over the season the opp passer rating is 74.6 but over last 3 weeks it has been 99.3, same with yards per pass att which is at 5.8 for season but 7.2 for last 3 weeks. Now I think there are 2 reasons for this, 1 is fatigue, the Vikings offense doesn’t stay on field and as a result Vikings defense has played a lot more snaps. The second is injuries, Vikings have had key players like Eric Kendricks, Zavier Woods miss games.

Vikings defense should be healthy in this game and they have a very good matchup against the Cards offensive line as the Cards line is 24th in adjusted sack rate.

I also like the home road splits for this under, the Vikings at home have an opp passer rating of 68.6 vs 80.2 on road and we know Carson Palmer has his issues on the road. Palmer has a passer rating on road of 73.1 on road compared to 85.6 at home and has 5 interceptions in just 2 road games.

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Wildcard Weekend Review

In the official scorecard for Wildcard Weekend I went 2-0 but with both futures teams (Seattle, Pittsburgh) stealing victory from the grasps of sure defeat it felt very much like 4-0 and a reason to celebrate

New Day Byron Saxton

2015 Playoffs: 2-0

2015 Reg Season: 57-35-3

Wild Card Weekend Results

Wild Card

Game 1: Pit @ Cin Under 45.5

This game never really was in doubt, the Steelers led 6-0 at half and 9-0 through 3 quarters. The Bengals in the first half managed only one drive of over 10 yards and the majority of their pass attempts and yards came in the 4th Q when they were down and in desperation mode. Even with 41 Attempts, McCarron couldn’t crack 200 passing yards.

The Bengals defense once again played the Steelers pass game tough holding them to 5.1 yards per pass and picking up 4 sacks. The Steelers did manage to run the ball well, 167 yards on 29 rushes, which helped the under as did he poor weather conditions. Nice to get an easy win.

Game 2: GB +1 @ Wash

This one didn’t start great as  Wash got off to a 11 -0 lead which could have been worse had Desean got into the end zone on their 2nd scoring drive where they ended up settling for 3. Once the Packers got into the game they found plenty of opportunities to score vs the 21st ranked DVOA defense of Washington. Washington was 31st in yards per rush against giving up 4.8 per att and the Packers took advantage of that unit. GB rushed for 141 yards on 32 atts and helped keep the game manageable for the Rodgers and their pass game.

Full Wildcard Week Results

WLD 2

Lady Luck

Lady Luck

Both the Steelers and Seahawks seemed by all accounts to be looking at 1st rd losses until having inexplicable plays go their way late in the games. The Steelers look too banged up to be able to go much further but we may look back at that missed 21 yard FG by in Minnesota as the major break that allowed Seattle to win the SB and cash our futures bet