When you thought it couldnt get worse, I caught every bad break last week. The Texans had no business not covering that game, The SF-Rams game started exactly how you would want for the over and then Mostert goes out and both teams don’t score at all in 2nd half and the same situation with TB and GB. The Vikings was just a terrible bet. Going to take a lot going right to pull out of this hole.
Game 1: NYG @ Phi -4
Bet% NYG 37% Phi 63%
I love the Eagles in this spot on TNF. The Eagles have just come off of a run of playing @ SF, @ Pit and home to Baltimore, even with all of the injuries SF that was a murderers row especially considering the Eagles ended the Ravens game with just 2 projected starters on offense, Wentz and Kelce. The Eagles kept some guys out last week with focus on this must win on TNF and are getting Lane Johnson, Desean Jackson and Avante Maddux back. In the meantime they found a reciever in Travis Fulgham that Carson Wentz trusts and Wentz has been much better the last 3 weeks (PFF grade 76.6, rank 9th) after being one of the worst QBs in the league the first 3 (PFF Grade 47.3 rank 31st). That improvement by Wentz has happened with a make shift offensive line and backups at reciever.
The Giants present a perfect get right opponent for the Eagles, on defense the Giants are 12th in adjusted pass rush which is fine but not anywhere near the Steelers and Ravens who the Eagles faced the last 2 weeks, with Lane Johnson back at RT the Eagles should be able to protect Wentz who was hit 16 times last week and allow him to test the Giants 23rd ranked pass defense by DVOA.
On Offense the Giants are dead last in DVOA and the Eagles and their 4th ranked Defensive line in adjusted sack rate should be able to get all types of pressure on Daniel Jones and maybe create a few turnovers. I like the Eagles to win by at least a TD here.
Game 2: TB -4 @ LV
Bet% TB 62% LV 38%
I totally understand why everyone was on the Raiders in this game to start the week basically fading them coming off of a season defining win vs the Packers last week. After the Trent Brown Covid news this game got taken off of the board when it was TB -2.5, I thought it would come back close to a TD but instead it opened at 4. The entire Raiders offensive line has been in quarantine and are questionable for this game, maybe everyone besides Brown plays in this game but even then it it is a lot to ask them to play well against the #2 ranked defensive line in terms of adjusted sack rate and the overall #1 DVOA defense. Todd Bowles has been terrific as the TB defensive coordinator and I can see him putting in a very good plan to take advamtage of the Raiders line not being able to practice all week.
Game 3: Sea @ Ari Under 55
Bet% Sea 63% Ari 37%
Seattle has played in shootouts all year and deserves to be tagged with one of the highest totals of the week but this seems like the right spot to see a lower scoring game. One I don’t think the Seattle defense is as bad as it has been though the start of the year and we will see them regress to closer to a league average type defense.
Arizona is interesting because they are known as a offensive team because they have an exciting coach and their head coach is known for his air raid style offense but they have been a stone cold under team all year, totals in Cardinals games have gone under in 5 of 6 games and it makes sense because they are ranked 10th in defense by DVOA and their offense ranks 12th overall but their passing offense is 18th. Add in the fact that this is a divisional game, both their games last season finished with low totals (40,37) and went under.
Game 4: 2 Team 6 point Teaser: KC -1.5 @ Den & Jac @ LAC -1
The Chiefs- Broncos total dropped from 49 to 45 and the line dropped from 9 to 7.5 because of weather reports in Denver where it is expected to be cold and some chance of snow. That gives us a great opportunity to use the Chiefs in a teaser, the Chiefs on offense now cn win really anyway they like, they can win track meets and they can also grind out on ground like they did on MNF against the Bills. Denver is coming off of a big win in New England in a game where they didn’t score 1 TD. That won’t work here.
In their last 4 games, the Jags have looked a lot like the team we expected at the start of the year going 0-4 with an average losing margin of 15, Only the Bengals (8), didn’t beat them by double digits. Maybe they come out and play well when nobody expects it but with further injuries on defense, this week they will be without Myles Jack and Josh Allen, I don’t see them winning straight up.
Game 5: Pit @ Ten Over 50.5
Bet% Over 60% Under 40%
This is is one of the marque games of the weekend I think has a chance to be one of the biggest offensive shootouts of the week. The Steelers defense has been great all year #2 in DVOA overall, #1 vs the pass and #8 vs the pass but this will be their first game without LB Devin Bush and they will also be without starting corner Mike Hilton. The Titans are also just a very different offense to match up to and their OC Art Smith does a terrific job of game planning. The Titans are 3rd in offensive DVOA, #2 in passing and possess one of the biggest threats in the league to break off a long run in Derek Henry. The Eagles scored 29 against the Steelers in week 5 and I see the Titans having a similar total here.
On the flip side this will be the first week the Steelers will have all of their weapons on offense as Diontae Johnson will be available after missing the last 3 weeks to pair up with JuJu and the Chase Claypool who has been a massive weapon for Pittsburgh the last 3 weeks. The Titans are 22nd in defensive DVOA and 24th vs the pass. I can definitly see both teams get into the 30’s.
Game 6: Buf @ NYJ Over 45.5
Bet% Over 43% Under 57%
This game has seen the line move around all week, it opened at 11 and got bet up to 13 and then as the injury reports came out the line started dropping and now we have mostly 10’s all around. For me, I can’t back the Jets side here but I think it is safe to expect them to play better on offense this week and that brings me to the over.
The Bills rank 29th in defensive DVOA and will likely be without their best corner Tre’Davious White, they should get LB Matt Milano back but he still may not be 100%. For the Jets they are getting much healthier for this game, Mekhi Becton will be back in this game, Denzel Mims should be back in this game and the big news is that Sam Darnold is expected to be back and starting in this game.
The Bills offense has been terrific all year and coming off of 2 straight losses I can see them coming out and having a big game here, The Jets have given up 30 or more in 4 of the 6 games this year and I certainly think Bills are capable of hitting 30 here.
Game 7: 2 team 6 point Teaser: Chi @ LAR pk & Week 8 Min @ GB -0.5
I ended up using the Chiefs in a few additional teasers to the Chargers one above, one was with the 49ers and then another was with the Rams. With the line moving for the Rams today to 6.5 I like their side even more today and am going to use them in a teaser with the Packers again the Vikings coming up.
Chicago is probably the team that has underplayed their record more than any other team, at 5-1 they rank 14th in DVOA overall and 26th on offense. This feels like a nice spot to buy on the Rams who are coming off a very tough loss on SNF, I think they will be able to score on this very good BEars defense, the line move gives me more confidense they are the right side but in the teaser I just need them to win.
The Packers just seem like a team that are like the neighborhood bully, they feast on bad teams and with the Vikings trading Ngakwe and putting Danielle Hunter on IR, I can see another big game Rodgers game against this secondary. I will probably adding the Packers to a few different teasers.