Our reg season from the abyss continued into playoffs as the Steelers followed up the worst coached reg season game of the year vs the Jags with the worst coached playoff game of the year and killed the 2nd half of our 2 team teaser. The Eagles not only covered the +9 we had but won straight up setting up a middling opportunity for me with the Jags which I didn’t take. Dumb.
2017 Reg Season 29-36
2017 Playoffs: 0-1
Game 1: Min @ Phi +3
Bet% Min 55% Phi 45%
These teams feel a lot closer than the spread indicates. Basically this has the Vikings as 6 point favorites on a neutral and I just don;t see it. The big discrepancy appears to be at QB with Case Keenum being rated far higher than Nick Foles. Keenum has definitely had a very productive season but he is also much more of a risk taker compared to the cautious Foles. The upside of those risky plays is being priced here but I don’t think the downside is.
The Vikings finished 2nd in defensive DVOA to the Jags and there us not a lot here for the Eagles in terms of mismatches or clear advantages. This is where I am putting faith in Doug Pederson to scheme a couple of big plays that get Philly on the board. Every week he seems to add some new wrinkles, last week it was the quick inside run by Agholor that turned int a big play or the back to back screen calls to Ajaya where the 2nd one went for 36 yards. I see this as a close low scoring games and Pederson needs just a couple of plays to get his team in the game.
On defense the Eagles best 2 players, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham both have big mismatches and should be able to create pressure. The Vikings like to run a lot but are’t very efficient, they ranked 18th in DVOA and that number was helped by the hot start of Dalvin Cook. The Eagles were 3rd best vs the run and if they can control that and get Vikings into long 3rd downs I can see opportunity for hits on QB and potential for turnovers.
In the end I think this game should probably be a pickem and will come down to 1 or 2 plays. Getting the 3 points and home field is too good to turn down. Plus the Eagles fans will be wearing these creepy masks.
In the other Conference final I like the Jags plus the points but definitely scared off by the idea of betting Bortles vs Brady. Will look for some in game opportunities.