Week 3 brought our 1st losing week, a combination of not getting the best of the number and some of the early 1 score luck we got going the other way. The morning started fine, for a while it looked pretty good but then the hits started coming and didn’t stop.

Week 3 Results: 2-3-1

What Went Right.

• Bills Bills Bills: Every week I look for the ‘hold your nose’  game, basically the side that looks the toughest to back based on last week. This week that team was the Bills, Buffalo was 0-2, played awful on national TV TNF and were playing a highly rated team that won by a blowout. The Cardinals have been low key kind of bad on the road and in this game Carson Palmer was terrible. Bills won the turnover battle 5-1, anytime you do that you should win big.

• Raiders D held up: In last week’s matchup I thought the Raiders big deficiency, their pass defense wouldn’t get exploited by the Titans pass game. That turned out to be the case, as Mariotta finished with just 214 yards, 2 Ints and a QBR of 3.6. I did think the Raiders offense would have a better day but they ended up doing just enough.

What Went Wrong

• The Number matters. Sometimes people think too much is made of line moves and actual number doesn’t really matter because 80% of teams that win straight up cover. This week was a great reminder that getting the best of it can make a big difference.

• Why they matter: I had Jax+1 there were Jags + before KO that would have changed that loss to a push. I had Det +7, up until Thursday there were Det +8, Det +7.5’s available that would have changed that push to a win. Not changing anything that happened in the games, just getting the best number would have moved this week from 2-3-1 to 3-2-1 and a winning week.

• When it Rains it pours: TB had a 20-10 lead late in the 1st and then a pick 6 brought the Rams right back into the game. the Bucs looked to be coming back late and then had a hour long stoppage due to rain. When they came back Winston and Dirk Cutter put on a clinic of how NOT to manage the clock late. Bucs out-gained the Rams 472-320, ran 20 more plays and lost straight up. Brutal
• Packers offense: I wrote about how the Packers offense had not been quite right for a while and Aaron Rodgers had gone 14 games without a passer rating of 100. Well home field and the Lions D seemed to fix that, at least for a half. Packers scored 31 of their 34 points in the 1st half and Rodgers finished with a  passer rating of 129.3 ending is sub 100 streak