Week 1 Review: 5-0 Perfect

Perfect 2

Anytime Curt Henning gifs make an appearance on this blog it is the highest honour, it is my “I’m going to Disneyland”

Last season we had 2 perfect weekends, Week 11 and Week 15. Coming out of the gate with a perfect weekend in 2016 is a not only a  great morale boost but also helps build a buffer for one of those 1-4 weekends that is sure to pop up early in the year.

Week 1: 5-0

2016 ATS: 5-0

2015 Season including Playoffs: 63-37-3

Week 1 Results



What Went Right

  • Everything! Well I guess that goes without saying that when you go 5-0 but for the purpose of this review it is probably more valuable to separate out the luck.
  • TB- ATL–  This was the game that I think most closely followed what I expected when betting. Atlanta looked similar to what they did in the 2nd half of 2015. Devonta Freemon’s struggles continued into 2016 as he rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries. TB basically led this game start to finish, a very impressive road win vs division opponent. Also cashed the ML bet here.
  • GB-Jax- This ended up coming down to the wire and a late FG by the Jags when they were down 7 was crucial to get the cover but overall I thought they played the type of game we expected. The Jags offense was able to have success and out gained the Packers. I had questions for just how effecient the Packers would be early and how much they would get out of Nelson and Lacy. While both players looked fine neither looked anywhere close to their previous best, Lacy averaged 4.4 yards per carry on 14 carries and Nelson had just 32 yards receiving. This line ended up as low as 4 at kick off so it certainly mattered what number you got here

  • SD-KC– Well this went exactly to form for 3 quarters, the Chargers led by 14 going into the 4th Q and somehow managed to lose straight up. Not cashing the ML was disappointing but having the full +7 was great in OT knowing no matter what happened I would cash the win. I still think the Chargers will offer value early in this season and this loss might ensure that.
  • Jack Del Rio–  Oakland showed a lot coming back from a 11 point deficit in the 4th quarter in a very tough road environment. That being said I left this game feeling really lucky that Del Rio went for the 2pt conversion and the win because it meant that raiders +3 would cash regardless of the result of the conversion. I know there was a tweet by ESPN stats that playing for the tie and going to OT was higher probability but I think Del Rio made the right call. The Saints defense had given up 3 TDs in the 4th and was the leagues worst uni last year. I would rather face that group from the 2 for one play then potentially face Brees twice (late 4th, 1st series of OT) and stop that offense twice.
  • Stafford and Jim Bob Cooter- The Lions continued their strong play on offense from last year with 450 yards of offense, 36 points and Stafford putting up a passer rating of 128.6. This game came down to their wire but the Lions hot offense and the Colts issues in the secondary both showed here and lead to a big road win for the underdogs.

What Went Wrong

  • Obviously when you go 5-0 none of the things that went wrong ultimately cost me but there were a couple of things that stand out.
  • The Raiders defense certainly didn’t seem improved from last year, their FA pick up at corner Shaun Smith got benched and Drew Brees had a field day. At this point I think we rate the Raiders defense the same as last year until we see actual results improve.
  • The Chargers collapse- I had SD as a team to bet n for the start of the year but it will be interesting to see how much they carry over from that OT loss to KC.

In the end we know the season is long and there will always  be games we get lucky to cover and of course plenty tough beats so as Khaled would say enjoy your wins. Especially when you are perfect.


Perfect Belt

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