Week 15 2-3
Season ATS: 54-37
Coming off of the worst week of the season I found myself very gun shy tis week. THere were 2 unders that were stone cold unders in terms of meeting my criteria, 1 of which I bet in the first meeting (Sea-SF) the other was Arz-Stl and partly because of the 1-6 week LW I tried to be very selective in my plays and it probably cost me here. Another losing week though only by 1 here and the overall record continues to look very good. Still not the bounce back week I was looking for.
Game 1 GB @ Buf+3.5
Bet% GB 75% Buf 25%
Score: GB 13 – Buf 21
A remarkable game by the #2 DVOA ranked and #1 ranked pass rush Buffalo defense in this game. Bills held Rodgers to 4.1 yards per pass and also intercepted him twice holding him to an amazing passer rating of 34.3 and QBR of 17.2.
Kyle Orton was not much better for Buffalo with 4.7 yards per play and a passer rating of 54.2, but in many ways Buffalo got all the types of plays you need for a big upset at home. The defense was dominant, creating turnovers dominating the line of scrimmage and even putting up a safety, but the key play in this game was a 75 yard punt return TD that put them up early and was the only TD the Bills had.
THis was also a good case of teams with very big home/road splits, GB has been the most dominant home team in league but on road are now under .500
Game 2: Min @ Det -7.5
Bet% Min 41% Det 59%
Score Min 14 Det 16
Detroit has been alternating ATS wins and unders the last 3 weeks, unfortunately I have picked the wrong one in each of those weeks. the Det #1 defense basically performs to form each week. This week taking the side was the wrong play as the Det offense on the heels of 2 straight good performances went back to bad Det offense. The Lions averaged just 4.7 yards per play and 5.5 per pass, Stafford had a QBR of 18.5 and just 153 yards per passing.
Clearly the Vikings defense is better than I gave them credit for, Detroit seems to be fine against the bottom feeders on defense but against anyone capable they struggle. Minnesota despite struggling on offense week after week continues to do enough to cover spreads as they have now moved to 9-5 ATS.
Game 3: Oak +11 @ KC
Bet% Oak 49% KC 51%
Score:Oak 13 – KC 31
This was a game where the line didn’t make sense to me going in, it seemed inflated as KC had lost last 3 in a row and Oak had beat the Chiefs in their last meeting and were also coming off of a win vs SF. In retrospect I should have tried to look more for reasons why that line was so high and KC still being in the playoff run and needing this game combined with Oakland’s road performances this season especially after games they had played well in were very bad.
Oakland was able to run well vs the last placed KC run defense averaging 4.6 yards per rush but in the pass game they only averaged 3.4 as the Chiefs pass rush dominated this game with 4 sacks and 11 QB hits. KC blew this game wide open in the 3rd quarter with 3 TDis in a 4 min span and never looked back.
Looking back the fact the line didn’t make sense should have been a red flag. It was in essence too easy to bet Oak here,they won the first game, beat SF last game and were getting 11?
Game 4: Mia +9.5 @ NE
Bet% Mia 28% NE 72%
Score Mia 13 NE 41
The first half was encouraging as Miami trailed 14-13 and one of the NE TD’swas actually a result of a blocked FG while the other followed up a big INT return. In the 3rd Q it was all NE as they scored 24 while shutting out Miami.
Not much more to say about this game, Miami once down seemed to wilt and without anything to play for there just wasn’t any sense that they were going to get back into it.One of the dangers of betting games late in the season is teams who had playoff hope that lose it, you just never know how they will come out an play.
Game 5: Den -4 @ SD
Bet% Den 66% SD 34%
Score:Den 22 SD 10
Result : Win
This is was one of those games where you win but know you were lucky and probably shouldnt have been on the side you were on.
There is something not right with the Denver offense, manning only passed 22 times despite passing for 9.8 yards per play and the run game only providing 2.9 yards per play on 38 attempts. Why they continued to run so much is really strange.
San Diego had ample opportunities to win this game but 1-5 in redzone was their undoing. Like Denver SD is getting nothing out of their run game as they avged 2.8 yards per rush but were smart enough to limit it to 20 attempts.
Normally laying 4 on the road is a monster number but for the Broncos playing in a game where the spread is under a TD is a rarity even on the road, this is only the 4th time the Broncos are favored by less than 6. In the previous games this was the case Den is 1-2 but the 2 losses were to NE & Sea who are currently the #2 and #5 DVOA teams. SD got off to a great start but is now the #16 team by DVOA and the defense is #28th.
Denver has been relying on the run game the last few weeks partly due to the success of CJ Anderson and partly due to injuries to Demarious and Julius Thomas. Last week Demarious was basically a decoy but is expected to be much bigger part of offense this week after a full week of practice, while Julius is also expected to come back this week and provide Manning with one his favorite redzone targets.
In the first matchup between these teams Den was favored by 8.5, SD was 5-2 the #6 team in DVOA and #5 in offense. Broncos won that game 35-21. This week SD is #16 overall, 11th on offense and the have slipped to 25th on defense., it’s hard to see how they keep up to Denver in this game for 4 quarters. In a way I see this game being similar to last week vs the Patriots for the Chargers, they were able to stay close early and lead at half but were eventually wore down and lost by 2 scores.