Last Week: 1-6
Season ATS: 52-34
Last week was the worst one of the season and it’s funny how much it affected my confidence this week. Nothing jumped off th page to me this week, the TNF game looked like a stone cold under to me but I couldn’t quite pull the trigger on what would have been a win. I didn’t finalize my plays this week until Sunday morning but here is hoping for some redemption.
Game 1 GB @ Buf+3.5
Bet% GB 75% Buf 25%
I wish I would have got the best of this number at the 4.5 but on Sunday morning we had a bug reverse move as this game dropped to 3.5 and even 3 at the sharp books. GB has been annihilating teams and the public will bet them in any circumstance but GB has not been quite as impressive on the road they are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road.
Buffalo brings the the #2 DVOA defense, they hold opposing QB’s to a passer rating of 77.6 which is 2nd in the league and they are #1 in the league in sack percentage. Green bay has struggled in games where Aaron Rogers has been pressured and with Eddie Lacy banged up the Bills should be able to focus on rushing Rodgers without worrying about the run as much as a regular week.
This game feels like one that will be much bigger for the Bills than Packers, Packers have had some let downs on the road such as 2 weeks ago in Minnesota and this seems like a spot for another one.
Game 2: Min @ Det -7.5
Bet% Min 41% Det 59%
Detroit has the #1 DVOA defense, thet give up the fewest points per game, are #1 in opp yards per rush and are in top 5 in Opp passer rating and yards per play. The Lions defensive line vs the Vikings offensive line should be a complete mistmatch as the Vikings are 26th in sack% given up
The Lions offense has found it’s rythem vs mediocre defense the last 2 weeks and the Vikings defense is only slightly better than the ones they faced. Vikings are 17th on defense in DVOA , they 20th in opp passer rating at 91.8 but that number jumps on the road to 95.6, in fact all their defensive number get worse on the road. and 22nd in opp yards per rush giving up 4.4 per carry. The Lions should be able to have plenty of success in both the passing and running games vs the Vikings.
The Vikings have been riding some good luck the last couple of weeks where they scored 4 D/ST TDs which has helped to disguise the Vikings issues on both sides of the ball. I think Lions win here by double digits,
Game 3: Oak +11 @ KC
Bet% Oak 49% KC 51%
This is such an interesting line, the Chiefs who have lost 3 straight games and are facing a divisional opponent that beat them in the first matchup are double digit favorities for the first time this season. It seems like a very strange time to be giving up this many points. The message is clearly that the Chiefs are due for a win and will be able to dominate this game against the Raiders who are one of the worst in football.
The Raiders while being the 27th DVOA team have managed to have a very respectable season ATS at 7-6 and have one 2 of their last 3 straight up, though both those were at home. Why I like Oak to keep this game close is the Raiders defense is not terrible especially against the run which is the base of the Chiefs offense. Raiders are 13th in the league in rush defese giving up 4.1 yards per rush and 11th in yards per play given up at 5.4. KC is an offense that relies on their #3 run game at 4.7 yards per rush because their pass game is not able to push the ball down the field.
On the other side of the ball the chiefs are dead last vs the run giving up 4.9 yards per rush and Oakland has been better on the ground since going to Latavious Murray who had a huge game the first time these teams met. If Oak can stay away from turnovers this should be a game they stay in the whole way.
Game 4: Mia +9.5 @ NE
Bet% Mia 28% NE 72%
New England like the Packers is a team everyone wants to bet regardless of the number and this week is apparently no different. The Pats are the #2 DVOA team in the league so they are going to be big home favs against almost anyone but in this case Miami is #7 DVOA team so getting over a TD here is too much value.
The Pats have been a covering machine in games that are a TD or less but in the games over that number, traditionally they have not aired as well. The weakness of Miami is their run defense where they have given up 4.4 yards per rush which is 26th but they have been much worse the last 3 weeks giving up 5.7 yards per rush. As a result I expect the Pats to keep this game on the ground instead of letting Brady throw the ball all over the field and expose him to the Dolphins pass rush.
For Miami this is essentially a must win game if they have any hope of making the playoffs, I don;t think they will have enough to win but they do play the Pats tough and should be able to keep this game within 1 score most of the way.
Game 5: Den -4 @ SD
Bet% Den 66% SD 34%
Normally laying 4 on the road is a monster number but for the Broncos playing in a game where the spread is under a TD is a rarity even on the road, this is only the 4th time the Broncos are favored by less than 6. In the previous games this was the case Den is 1-2 but the 2 losses were to NE & Sea who are currently the #2 and #5 DVOA teams. SD got off to a great start but is now the #16 team by DVOA and the defense is #28th.
Denver has been relying on the run game the last few weeks partly due to the success of CJ Anderson and partly due to injuries to Demarious and Julius Thomas. Last week Demarious was basically a decoy but is expected to be much bigger part of offense this week after a full week of practice, while Julius is also expected to come back this week and provide Manning with one his favorite redzone targets.
In the first matchup between these teams Den was favored by 8.5, SD was 5-2 the #6 team in DVOA and #5 in offense. Broncos won that game 35-21. This week SD is #16 overall, 11th on offense and the have slipped to 25th on defense., it’s hard to see how they keep up to Denver in this game for 4 quarters. In a way I see this game being similar to last week vs the Patriots for the Chargers, they were able to stay close early and lead at half but were eventually wore down and lost by 2 scores.