Week 14: 1-6
Season ATS: 52-34
It was all going so well and then week 14. Disaster.
This was only the 3rd losing week of the season and we are still above 60% on the season which is fantastic but man a week like this really hurts and even though I have kind of been expecting a week or 2 where there would be some regression this was really tough. Anyway here is the recap of the week where almost everything went wrong.
Game 1 Bal @ Mia -2.5
Bet% Bal 58 Mia 42
Score: Bal 28 Mia 13
In a game of two of the top DVOA teams in the league, I thought Baltimore would have some hangover from their loss to the Chargers at the end of thegame in Week 14 and that Miami would want to take care of business in the game preceding a trip to New England. This game was 10-7 Miami at half but the 2nd half was all Ravens.
Miami was unable and really unwilling to take advantage of the Ravens biggest defficiency, which is their secondary. Miami averaged only 4.5 yards per attempt and had only 1 completion to a WR of 20 yards.
The Ravens on the other hand took full advantage of Miami’s biggest deficiency of late which is their run defense. Ravens ran the ball 31 times for 5.9 yard per attempt. Ravens also did a great job against Miami’s pass rush giving up 1 sack and 1 QB hit.
Game 2 TB @ Det Under 42
Bet% Over 75% Under 25%
Score: 34-17 (51)
For the second straight week the Detroit offense was very productive, 5.9 yards per play, 7.7 yards per pass and 4 for 5 in the redzone. With everyone healthy I think it is safe to say the Lions offense can now be counted on to perform at levels we are used to seeing them at least vs defenses that are not elite.
The Bucs averaged only 3.9 yards per play, were 1-3 in the redzone, turned it over 3 times and gave up 6 sacks and an amazing 14 QB hits. The Lions absolutely dominated the Bucs offense but partly because they were comfortably ahead most of the game they did have lapses where the Bucs were able to score.
I think what this game shows is the risk in betting an under in a game with a large spread, if the better team gets ahead early giving up a score or 2 isn’t a big deal. There were cases where Lions players took risks for big plays like interceptions that allowed the Bucs to keep drives going.
Game 3 NYJ @ Min Under 40.5
Bet% Over 45% Under 55%
Score: NYJ 24 Min 30 (54)
This was the game that was probably the best indicator of the type of week I was going to have. 2 teams that have been amongst the worst on offense, 2 QB’s that the teams have not trusted were invlved in one of the highest scoring games of the week.
I really think the start dictated the type of game it was going to be, the very first play of the game was an interception for TD thrown by Geno Smith. On the Vikings first drive, Teddy Bridgewater was sacked for a safety, so 5 mins into the game the defenses had put up 9 points, in fact there were 2 defensive TD’s scored by the Vikings in this game. Even though these teams were a combined 0-6 in the redzone, the 16 points by the defenses were too much to overcome for the under. This is the classic right side, wrong result.
Game 4: Ind @ Cle +3
Bet% Ind 75% Cle 25%
Score: Ind 25 Cle 24
This was the only win of the week and for most of the game it looked like it would be an easy winner but in the end it took a failed 2pt conversion by the Colts to cash the ticket.
The Browns came into this game #1 in opp passer rating and they played like it here. Browns held Andrew Luck to 4.8 yards per pass, held the colts to 5-16 on 3rd down and forced 2 interceptions including 1 which they returned for a TD.
The Browns terrific day on defense was undone by their play at QB, Brian Hoyer was 13-30 for 133 yards and 2 interceptions and they couldn’t hold on to the straight up win but did get the cover.
One thing to not here is that Andrew Luck was sacked 3 times but hit another 13 times. Minus a competent running game, teams are teeing off on Luck.
This is really a game I’m betting because it seems like the easiest one to be on the other side. Colts have blown a lot of teams out including Washington last week and meanwhile the Browns are in the middle of a QB controversy. Yet even with 75% of bets on Colts this line won’t go to 3.5, if you like the Colts would the hook stop you from betting them? I’m not sure so something here is fishy.
The case for Cleveland is this, first even though there has been a QB controversy it appears the players were pretty much all behind Hoyer who got the nod and you would hope they come out and play well for him. Second with Bradshaw out the Colts are pretty one dimensional and surprisingly the Browns defense is #1 in opponents passer rating at an impressive 74.1 but that number gets even better at home where the avg passer rating against drops to 69.2. Weather in Cleveland could also play a factor here, as windy conditions would hurt the passing game of the Colts.
Game 5: Stl @ Wash +3
Bet%: Stl 69% Wash 31
Score: Stl 24 Was 0
This one was never close, Stl couldn’t find the endzone early in game and lead 6-0 at half but in the 2nd it was a whitewash. The Rams defensive line dominated this game, 7 sacks, 9 QB hits and 8 TFL. Washington had 0 trips in the redzone and went 3-12 on 3rd down.
I think I have lost 4 or 5 straight bets on Washington and I think the lesson there is sometimes teams are such a mess that even when there is value, you are best to pass. QB controversies, rookie coach under fire and they are getting blown out virtually every week.
Stl remains a strong under play.
Game 6: Sea @ Phi +2.5
Bet% Sea 64% Phi 36%
Score Sea 24 Phi 14
The Eagles defense was pretty good and matched up well vs the Seahawk offense especially in the 1st half they were wore down in 2nd half as a result of being on field so much. Seattle ran 85 plays to the Eagles 45, the Eagles offense was only on field for 18 mins as Sanchez was held to 96 yards passing and the 3.6 yards per pass.
The Seattle defense now whole with Bobby Wagner, was able to dominate this game, holding Eagles to 2-11 on 3rd down and a paltry 3.1 yards per play.
Game 7: KC -2.5 @ Ari
Score KC 14 Ari 17
KC lead this game 14-6 at half and 14-9 in the 3rd quarter, they averaged 6.4 yards per play vs 5.6 by Arizona and the Chiefs ran for 7.4 yards per attempt. The Chiefs had 2 bad breaks in this game that ultimately led to them losing, the first was Jamal Charles getting banged up and leading the game, Charles had 110 yards and 2 TDs on only 12 touches.
The second was a dubious reversal by the refs on an Arians challenge, where Kelce had a first down at the Ariz 20 that would have surely led to a tying FG if not a game winning TD.
This was a toss up game that could have gone either way, most this season have gone my way this one didn’t.