Game 1 Bal @ Mia -2.5
Bet% Bal 58 Mia 42
This was the first game I bet this week which is strange because I really like both these teams and think they are both under rated in marketplace. By DVOA Bal is #4 while Mia is #8 but I think there are 2 reasons to go against Bal here this week. First, they had a crushing loss last week at home, their division is so tight that a win last week would of probably opened the chance at winning the division again but they lose on a final drive the San Diego and I wonder how that affects them.
The second reason is that even though their overall numbers on defense (#10 DVOA) is good, injuries to their secondary, especially Jimmy Smith, and now the suspension of Natta makes them more vulnerable on defense that the Dolphins who are the #7 DVOA defense. To that point, the Ravens are giving up 7.3 yards per pass this season but over the last 3 weeks that number has gone up to 7.8 and last week they gave up 8.1.
Game 2 TB @ Det Under 42
Bet% Over 75% Under 25%
Detroit has been my favorite under team this year and even though we lost with the Detroit under last week I think it is the right play again this week. Last week Det had one of their best offensive performances of the year against the Bears who have the 27th ranked DVOA offense and gave up 17 to he Bears 14th ranked offense. This week Lions play the Bucs, who rank 31st on offense but a very respectable 18th on defense.
The Lions#1 ranked DVOA defense should have no problem stopping the Bucs offense and I expect the Bucs Def to keep this game close for the most part. This is the biggest spread of the year for the Lions at 10.5 but rather than trusting their offense can score enough to cover I think the under gives the most value.
Game 3 NYJ @ Min Under 40.5
Bet% Over 45% Under 55%
We have two of the worst offenses in the league facing off in this game, The Jets have the 29th DVOA offense while the Vikings rank 28th while the defenses rank 20th and 23rd respectively. Looking at last weeks boxs cores I wanted to bet against the Vikings who won last week 31-13 aganst Carolina but had 2 defensive TD’s in that game.
Instead of betting the spread I like the under here as these are really 2 offense that not only don’t score a lot but by design try to take the game out of the QB’s hands. Looking at last week, its quite amazing to see these QBs numbers in todays age of passing game. Teddy Bridgewater only threw the ball 21 times for 138 yards which doubled Gino Smith’s production, Geno went 6/13 for 65 yards. 65 passing Yards for the whole game! Amazing.
Game 4: Ind @ Cle +3
Bet% Ind 75% Cle 25%
This is really a game I’m betting because it seems like the easiest one to be on the other side. Colts have blown a lot of teams out including Washington last week and meanwhile the Browns are in the middle of a QB controversy. Yet even with 75% of bets on Colts this line won’t go to 3.5, if you like the Colts would the hook stop you from betting them? I’m not sure so something here is fishy.
The case for Cleveland is this, first even though there has been a QB controversy it appears the players were pretty much all behind Hoyer who got the nod and you would hope they come out and play well for him. Second with Bradshaw out the Colts are pretty one dimensional and surprisingly the Browns defense is #1 in opponents passer rating at an impressive 74.1 but that number gets even better at home where the avg passer rating against drops to 69.2. Weather in Cleveland could also play a factor here, as windy conditions would hurt the passing game of the Colts.
Game 5: Stl @ Wash +3
Bet%: Stl 69% Wash 31
This is the game where one team’s stock couldn’t be higher as the Rams are coming off of a 52-0 win last week vs the Raiders which followed big wins over both Sea and SF plus they are getting Chris Long back. Washington is a mess, they got blown out last week by the Colts and gave up 12.9 yards per pass to Andrew Luck.
The Wash offense looked pretty good this week and I’m not sure the Rams offense is one that can exploit Washington any where near what we saw last week with the Colts. There is ever chance the Rams dominate the Wash offensive line and create turnovers but it is just hard for me to see how this Rams team should be a 3 point favorite on the road. I don’t love this game but I do think there is a lot of value on Wash.
Game 6: Sea @ Phi +2.5
Bet% Sea 64% Phi 36%
This is a game where I believe the Eagles strengths matchup well with what Seattle wants to do. Seattle is a run based offense, leading the league with 5.3 yards per attempt but the Eagles handle the rush better than they do the pass due to their front 7 being their strength. Last week the Eagles held the Cowboys to 3.7 yards per attempt, Dallas came into the game averaging 4.9 which was 2nd to Seattle. The Eagles are 2nd in the league in Sack% at 8.59% so they should be able to disrupt the Seahawks read option offense.
On offense, I the Eagles have outperformed their turnovers so far but because Seattle has not been able to put regular pressure on QB’s, they are 27th at 4.93% Sanchez should have enough time to make plays to his receivers.
Game 7: KC -2.5 @ Ari
KC is the the #6 DVOA team vs the Arizona the #18. Arizoa with no running game will have to rely on the arm of Drew Stanton and over the last 2 weeks that has proved to be an issue. I think the Chefs wll be able to create pressure and turnovers in this game.
On offense the one thing the Chiefs do better than anyone is protet the ball, Alex Smith does not throw interceptions and for much of the season that is what the Cardinals feasted on.